I'll keep this as brief as I can. It's not based on any books or articles I've recently read, although I don't think there is anything original about this thought.
To put this as baldly as possible: Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine starting in 2022 was, in retrospect, the first of a series of moves by leaders whom I consider entrepreneurs of war: national or movement leaders who take great risks by making war, in pursuit of potential great payoffs.
Israel, led by Netanyahu and his War Cabinet, are now acting as entrepreneurs of war. Israel has defied (and continues to defy) 'world opinion' by defeating Hamas (and killing many thousand Gazan "human shields" in the process); decapitating and degrading Hezbollah; destroying Iran's air defenses; and now securing the Golan Heights buffer zone in Syria and destroying Syrian chemical weapons facilities. In essence, over the past year, Israel has destroyed Iran's attempt to encircle it with proxy warriors.
And now, in Syria, we see that the rebel leader (if one can use that Star Wars-esque term), Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, has defeated Bashar al-Assad's Syrian government forces, captured Aleppo, Homs and Damascus, driven Assad into exile, humiliated Russia and dealt Iran a major strategic setback.
It's worth noting that not all of these are "bad guys" (as Americans tend to think of these things), and not all of their initiatives are completely successful. Putin's invasion, even if it succeeds in some fashion (it seems fairly clear that, ultimately, he will be able to annex some eastern sections of Ukraine with heavy Russian populations), may well be a pyrrhic victory; the casualty count was recently reported to be greater than 600,000 Russian soldiers. And so far, his perceived enemy, NATO, has risen to the occasion with unity and resolve. And of course, some 2 1/2 years in, Ukraine still stands and is still in the fight. Russia may well emerge from the Ukrainian war weaker than when it started.
Netanyahu, probably still counted a "good guy" by most Americans, has succeeded spectacularly (so far). Israel is in a considerably stronger position than it was on October 7th 2023 when Hamas launched what must now be judged its jaw-droppingly foolish cross-border attack. Netanyahu and Israel may, at the moment, be poster children for the positive payoff of war entrepreneurialism. War has been very good for Israel, at least up until now. Many Israelis surely are wondering why Israel waited as long as it did to attack its enemies. And Netanyahu seems more secure politically than he has been in years.
Jolani may be the most striking war entrepreneur of all. His lightning campaign across sections of Syria has electrified the world and transformed the geopolitical balance in the Middle East. He has propelled himself onto the world stage. Other world leaders and nations are watching him in equal parts curiosity, hope and apprehension to understand who he is and how he would govern. And he surely is being hailed as a hero by the many people Assad oppressed.
If we look at war-making through the lens of succeeding or failing (a lens the term "war entrepreneur" intensifies), then a case might be made to geopolitical leaders that war works. Even Putin, if he ends up with several Ukrainian provinces in his pocket, can claim he won.
I fear that is the lesson the world is going to take away from the last several years: as long as you win, war is a net positive. Perhaps something to ponder and pray about during this season of peace.
Do you remember the Doomsday Clock? It's still ticking. It was/is a calculation by various scientists of how close we are to human-instrumented catastrophy. Wikipedia has this to say about it;
ReplyDelete"The Clock's original setting in 1947 was 7 minutes to midnight. It has since been set backward 8 times and forward 17 times. The farthest time from midnight was 17 minutes in 1991, and the nearest is 90 seconds, set in January 2023.
The Clock was moved to 150 seconds (2 minutes, 30 seconds) in 2017, then forward to 2 minutes to midnight in January 2018, and left unchanged in 2019.[5] In January 2020, it was moved forward to 100 seconds (1 minute, 40 seconds) before midnight.[6] In January 2023, the Clock was moved forward to 90 seconds (1 minute, 30 seconds) before midnight, announced in a live stream, and further explained to be impacted by considerations of biosecurity concerns resulting in large part from the global effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in an article authored by members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board, which included public health experts Suzet McKinney and Asha M. George. The board announced that the clock remained unchanged in January 2024."
The farthest time from midnight was in 1991, which is also how I am remembering it. We had found out how to live in peace at last. I remember a magazine cover, I think it was Time. The lead in was "How are we going to spend the peace dividend?" There were all kinds of ideas, including universal healthcare in the US. Of course it was all an illusion, and we squandered any peace dividend we might have had.
If we had acted more prudently back then could we have avoided an age of war?
I remember an interview with Gorbachev in which he said that we should have helped Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union, that maybe we could have avoided the revanchism of Putin's reign.
I don't know if any of that is true, but it's something to think about.
We have been in an age of war for over a century: WWI, WWII... Francis calls this WWIII. In the long term, war does not seem to have been very successful for those who waged it. Germany and Japan both prospered more when they became demilitarized. The Soviet Union broke up over its militarism. We are in the process of declining because of our militarism. If we used half the resources for the defense budget, we could solve our healthcare problems, housing problems, environment problems and infrastructure problems.
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