I'll keep this as brief as I can. It's not based on any books or articles I've recently read, although I don't think there is anything original about this thought.
To put this as baldly as possible: Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine starting in 2022 was, in retrospect, the first of a series of moves by leaders whom I consider entrepreneurs of war: national or movement leaders who take great risks by making war, in pursuit of potential great payoffs.
Israel, led by Netanyahu and his War Cabinet, are now acting as entrepreneurs of war. Israel has defied (and continues to defy) 'world opinion' by defeating Hamas (and killing many thousand Gazan "human shields" in the process); decapitating and degrading Hezbollah; destroying Iran's air defenses; and now securing the Golan Heights buffer zone in Syria and destroying Syrian chemical weapons facilities. In essence, over the past year, Israel has destroyed Iran's attempt to encircle it with proxy warriors.
And now, in Syria, we see that the rebel leader (if one can use that Star Wars-esque term), Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, has defeated Bashar al-Assad's Syrian government forces, captured Aleppo, Homs and Damascus, driven Assad into exile, humiliated Russia and dealt Iran a major strategic setback.
It's worth noting that not all of these are "bad guys" (as Americans tend to think of these things), and not all of their initiatives are completely successful. Putin's invasion, even if it succeeds in some fashion (it seems fairly clear that, ultimately, he will be able to annex some eastern sections of Ukraine with heavy Russian populations), may well be a pyrrhic victory; the casualty count was recently reported to be greater than 600,000 Russian soldiers. And so far, his perceived enemy, NATO, has risen to the occasion with unity and resolve. And of course, some 2 1/2 years in, Ukraine still stands and is still in the fight. Russia may well emerge from the Ukrainian war weaker than when it started.
Netanyahu, probably still counted a "good guy" by most Americans, has succeeded spectacularly (so far). Israel is in a considerably stronger position than it was on October 7th 2023 when Hamas launched what must now be judged its jaw-droppingly foolish cross-border attack. Netanyahu and Israel may, at the moment, be poster children for the positive payoff of war entrepreneurialism. War has been very good for Israel, at least up until now. Many Israelis surely are wondering why Israel waited as long as it did to attack its enemies. And Netanyahu seems more secure politically than he has been in years.
Jolani may be the most striking war entrepreneur of all. His lightning campaign across sections of Syria has electrified the world and transformed the geopolitical balance in the Middle East. He has propelled himself onto the world stage. Other world leaders and nations are watching him in equal parts curiosity, hope and apprehension to understand who he is and how he would govern. And he surely is being hailed as a hero by the many people Assad oppressed.
If we look at war-making through the lens of succeeding or failing (a lens the term "war entrepreneur" intensifies), then a case might be made to geopolitical leaders that war works. Even Putin, if he ends up with several Ukrainian provinces in his pocket, can claim he won.
I fear that is the lesson the world is going to take away from the last several years: as long as you win, war is a net positive. Perhaps something to ponder and pray about during this season of peace.
Do you remember the Doomsday Clock? It's still ticking. It was/is a calculation by various scientists of how close we are to human-instrumented catastrophy. Wikipedia has this to say about it;
ReplyDelete"The Clock's original setting in 1947 was 7 minutes to midnight. It has since been set backward 8 times and forward 17 times. The farthest time from midnight was 17 minutes in 1991, and the nearest is 90 seconds, set in January 2023.
The Clock was moved to 150 seconds (2 minutes, 30 seconds) in 2017, then forward to 2 minutes to midnight in January 2018, and left unchanged in 2019.[5] In January 2020, it was moved forward to 100 seconds (1 minute, 40 seconds) before midnight.[6] In January 2023, the Clock was moved forward to 90 seconds (1 minute, 30 seconds) before midnight, announced in a live stream, and further explained to be impacted by considerations of biosecurity concerns resulting in large part from the global effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in an article authored by members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board, which included public health experts Suzet McKinney and Asha M. George. The board announced that the clock remained unchanged in January 2024."
The farthest time from midnight was in 1991, which is also how I am remembering it. We had found out how to live in peace at last. I remember a magazine cover, I think it was Time. The lead in was "How are we going to spend the peace dividend?" There were all kinds of ideas, including universal healthcare in the US. Of course it was all an illusion, and we squandered any peace dividend we might have had.
If we had acted more prudently back then could we have avoided an age of war?
I remember an interview with Gorbachev in which he said that we should have helped Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union, that maybe we could have avoided the revanchism of Putin's reign.
I don't know if any of that is true, but it's something to think about.
I think the Doomsday Clock is focused on nuclear annihilation? If one subscribes to the theory that we are in the most danger when nuclear-armed entities are weakest, rather than strongest, then I agree that the clock currently is ticking the wrong direction. I'm thinking of Russia and China, and perhaps Iran. (I believe Iran technically isn't considered a nuclear power yet, but the belief seems to be pretty widely held that they are "a screwdriver away", i.e. can build nukes whenever they choose.)
DeleteAs for Israel, also a nuclear power: it doesn't seem weak at the moment, but Netanyahu has demonstrated that he is more or less impervious to world opinion, and is willing to do whatever he thinks is necessary to protect Israel.
Jim, yes the Doomsday Clock does refer to nuclear war. But I feel that even "just regular war" pushes us closer to the edge of the cliff.
DeleteWe have been in an age of war for over a century: WWI, WWII... Francis calls this WWIII. In the long term, war does not seem to have been very successful for those who waged it. Germany and Japan both prospered more when they became demilitarized. The Soviet Union broke up over its militarism. We are in the process of declining because of our militarism. If we used half the resources for the defense budget, we could solve our healthcare problems, housing problems, environment problems and infrastructure problems.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you, Jack, that too much of our resources are directed towards militarism.
DeleteAs to whether recent wars have been successful, it depends on whose viewpoints one is considering. I suppose the "war entrepreneurs" such as Putin and Netanyahu consider that war has been meeting their goals. Unfortunately for the people directly affected by the wars, it has mainly been successful in increasing their misery and insecurity..
I'd classify Hitler, Mussolini and Tojo as war entrepreneurs. In the post-WWII era, I'm not certain that the US was a war entrepreneur, but there always has been a "war party" in the US (cf our post-9/11 invasions in the Middle East), and war generates lots of revenue and profits for military contractors.
DeleteBetween Jacks post of Bernie’s newsletter and this one I’m close to giving up. It all seems so hopeless.
ReplyDeleteSo I’m going off topic with this link to a story about praying to the saints - especially for Jean. It’s an article in my LMU alumni newsletter.
https://magazine.lmu.edu/articles/who-you-gonna-call/
PS. For those who didn’t have sons brining home popular movies many years ago, the “ Who you gonna call” is an allusion to the movie Ghostbusters.
DeleteI agree with Jack's long view. But the post Cold War period has been a time in which Americans have grown accustomed to peace. Even when we have been involved in wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the war experience hasn't had much impact on Americans as a whole. That's my perspective for wondering whether we're entering a new era now, in which Americans may need to be accustomed to being on a war footing, and perhaps may be asked (or required) to fight great wars ourselves.
ReplyDeleteI think the idea of a "war entrepreneur" is very old - it's a human hardy perennial. War always has been a vehicle to achieve geopolitical goals, rise to national political power and accumulate riches. I think of Jolani as a warlord (of which there are many in the Middle East and Africa) who has achieved a different magnitude of success than most of his peers.
I worked my whole career for the military in conventional weaponry. Before 1989, I could justify it as opposing the commies. I have a strong Polish identity and I didn’t like their hegemony over the Warsaw Pact countries. Also, I figured an effective conventional military was a buffer against resorting to nuclear weapons. And then it was mission accomplished when the Soviet Union dissolved. Did we then seek to build peace and prosperity in the world? No. We won. We pushed NATO eastward after promising Gorbachev we would not. We would mold the world to our wishes and punish anyone who got out of line. This next thirty years showed how aggressive and arrogant this country really is. Looking back on it all, I’m not very proud of my role except for helping save the US optics industry. War is an absurdity to be avoided. But we like to push and push. That’s what we did in Ukraine. Well, they’re starting to push back. Russia had the sense to abandon Syria. I wish we would abandon Israel.
ReplyDeleteI was struck again today about how our own family histories and the people of our communities lead to different perceptions. I’ve mentioned that our neighborhood and community is not majority Catholic, or even majority Christian. Because there are many Asians (Chinese and Korean especially), and people from the mid- east countries ( besides Israel) there is a significant portion of our community who are neither Christian nor Jewish. But there are probably more Jewish members of this community than any other, even if the various Christian denominations are counted as a single group.
ReplyDeleteToday I saw something I had never seen before. We don’t talk politics often with our neighbors but I know that there are both Democrats and Republicans among our Jewish neighbors. The synogogues mostly have large “ We Stand with Israel” signs outside. Today, coming home home on a road that crosses over a major freeway, there were numerous people on both sides of the road on the overpass with large We Stand With Israel signs, Israeli flags and American flags, all meant to be visible by the drivers passing on the highway. I actually wondered if something new had happened today in Israel and checked the news when I got home. No new attacks on Israel. Obviously feelings run high on this war.I know that many American Jews do not support Israel’s actions. But many do. Some neighbors have family in Israel. Others lost family in the Shoah. I wonder if rabbis have to walk a tightrope with their congregations as Jim and priests did before the election. Some synagogues here are quite open about their feelings, expressed with the big signs. Other synagogues do not have signs at all. I wonder if they are all dealing with disgruntled members and if there is movement now to change synagogues as many Catholics do now because of the polarization in the church.
I'm surprised to hear that people are standing outside with signs. I'm sure the polarization is hard for everyone.
DeleteThere are some Jewish congregations in Omaha, but none outstate. I've actually only known one Jewish person personally. There was a college friend whose dad was Jewish and her mom was Irish Catholic.
When my husband wss in deacon formation the class visited a synagogue in Sioux City, and attended a service. It was very interesting.
Our community isn't majority or plurality Jewish but Jews are relatively numerous. Our local public schools observe Yom Kippur and Rosh Hashanah as school holidays.
DeleteSome are liberal, some are conservative. I haven't noticed where the synagogues come down on the Israeli-Hamas war.
I don't know why this made me laugh in a weird, you can't make this stuff up, way. RFK Jr is petitioning Trump to give his daughter in law, Amaryllis a position in the CIA because he wants her to investigate the death of his uncle, JFK. (??!). Reportedly Trump likes Amaryllis and is considering it. He is getting lots of negative pushback.
ReplyDeleteHere’s a little news on the presidential pardon front. Biden just pardoned Michael Conahan, the “kids-for-cash” judge. He is under house detention due to COVID and was supposed to return to jail in 2026 to finish off the remaining two years or so. He sentenced 2,300 kids and made $2.3M from the juvenile jail corporation. At least one suicide followed. Yep. Biden’s better than Trump. Pond scum is better than Trump.
ReplyDeleteThis was on the Politico site:
Delete"...commutations were extended to people on Covid-related home confinement after federal authorities verified that their offenses were nonviolent and not a sex offense or terrorism related, the official said. They were also all considered a low risk for recidivism, had not engaged in any violent or gang-related activity while in prison and had been on good behavior for at least a year. None of the commutations granted were individual decisions, the official added, and none who met the criteria were excluded. "
It appears that there were like 1500 people who got the commutation. It is arguable that some of them shouldn't have.
But if he's going to go "Olly, olly, in free" I hope he commutes the death sentences of the 40 or so people on federal death row. It doesn't mean he has to let them out. They can still be under life sentences. But judging from what Trump did last time, he would have an execution fest if any were still under a death sentence.
Non-violent includes white collar crime. White collar crime probably kills more people than direct violence. I can’t think of anything more violent than throwing a kid into jail who’s either innocent or guilty of minor transgressions. Still waiting to hear about Leonard Peltier and Mumia Abu-Jamal.
DeleteThe judge better move some place far away from NE PA, especially in light of recent events.
DeleteHas anyone seen “Joyeaux Noel”? I would subtitle that movie “God Descends Upon a Battlefield”. The Great War was a perfect example of war’s insanity, especially modern war. A good way to prove we are more than apes with artillery would be to end it.
ReplyDeleteNo I haven't seen "Joyeaux Noel", somehow I don't think it would be a heartwarming Christmas movie!
DeleteIf anyone is looking for a good Christmas movie, try " The Feast of the Seven Fishes". It is funny. The characters are a little rough spoken, but good people.
Well some of them are good people.
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