As both major parties are fielding presidential candidates who already exceed the expected life span for American males, it doesn't seem blameworthy for a voter to wonder what happens when a candidate dies. This Vox article from 2020 tries to explore the permutations, of which there are several (e.g. what if the candidate dies before the election but after ballots are printed; what if s/he dies after the election but before the electoral college voting; and so on). The short answer seems to be: most likely, the vice presidential candidate would become the presidential candidate.
But in case Donald Trump dies before or immediately after the November election (not that I wish such a thing to happen - truly), I don't assume that his VP pick, whoever that will be, would emerge as the successor candidate. Allowing the VP to ascend to the top of the ticket would be the old way of doing party business. The new, Donald Trump way is: the party does whatever Donald Trump or his organization wants the party to do. I think it's quite possible that the new GOP would find a way to announce that Donald Trump Jr. is its new standard bearer.
The premature death of either candidate-elect would likely create confusion involving a Supreme Court ruling to clinch the fact that the VP is duly elected along with the candidate and would therefore succeed to the presidency.
ReplyDeleteAs someone trying to help a stressed out spouse and cardiac patient keep his equilibrium during this difficult year, no way am I going to catastrophize over hypothetical circumstances like Don Jr as a running mate or spoiler coming out of the woodwork. This kind of musing just keeps people stirred up and angry. And most No-Trumpers, which is apparently all half dozen of us here, don't need more arguments not to vote for him.
I think the Supreme Court would agree that a Vice President Elected along with a President become Presidents if that person dies before taking office.
DeleteI don't think the question is so clear if a candidate dies before the election. I suspect that would depend upon party rules, and precedents, such as what has happened when senate and congressional candidates die before election day. I suspect the general practice has been to let parties select a successor candidate according to their rules.
I just don't see how the MAGA wing of the GOP manages to foist Don Jr on the nation as our Lord and Savior unless he's already got some status as the official running mate voted in at the GOP convention. There would be GOP in-fighting, as we've seen in Michigan with the dispute over the head of the Michigan GOP and the courts stepping in to sort it out.
DeleteIf Trump Sr dies before the GOP convention, the party would have to determine a new candidate and running mate.
Yeah, the MAGAs could push for Don Jr. But I think they'd have a fight on their hands from Nikki Haley supporters. She's a smart woman, and my guess is that she has thought through a variety of scenarios like this.
The only good thing to come out of this election cycle is that both parties seem to understand that handing us candidates who will be octagenarians if they live through their terms of office is a non-starter with much of the electorate.
If it's up to the party to pick the successor candidate (as it would be if the original candidate dies or otherwise has to drop out of the race prior to the election), it's quite likely it will be someone MAGA. Trump just got done packing the RNC with cronies, toadies and lickspittles.
DeleteOf course, if he dies, does MAGA die with him?
"...if he dies, does MAGA die with him?"
DeleteI think there'd be a MAGA hangover. But I also think the magic (such as it is) would dissipate. There's a lot of wannabees However, nobody but Trump seems to have the secret sauce.
From Wikipedia:
ReplyDeleteHarold Edward Stassen (April 13, 1907 – March 4, 2001) was an American Republican Party politician, military officer, and attorney who was the 25th governor of Minnesota from 1939 to 1943. He was a leading candidate for the Republican nomination for president of the United States in 1948. Though he was considered for a time to be the front-runner, he lost the nomination to New York governor Thomas E. Dewey. He thereafter regularly continued to run for the presidency and other offices, such that his name became most identified with his status as a perennial candidate.
Will Trump become another Stassen? Will he become the Republican nominee every four years to be defeated every four years? Claiming the election was rigged every time. And in the meantime, governing the Republican party and Republican office holders as the king-in-exile! I suspect that is what Trump plans to do until the day he dies. If he becomes unable to run himself, he will just designate his son as his stand in.
I remember Harold Stassen. Been a long time since I thought of him. There was another old fellow from our state who used to run as an independent every time. His name was Americus Liberator (that was his real name!). One of my high school classmates got an A+ for her American Government report by interviewing him. She was the only one who talked to an actual candidate.
DeleteI have read that Marco Rubio is trying to position himself as a possible veep pick. I don't think it will happen, but I don't think that would be the worst outcome. I wasn't a Rubio supporter when he was running to be the presidential candidate, but at least he's sane. More likely it will be Kristi Noem or Kari Lake. Elise Stefanek is a wannabee but not quite Miss Universe blinding smile enough. One of my sisters hates it that she and Stefanek share the same first name.
ReplyDeleteI saw Rubio on ABC's This Week this past Sunday (ABC's version of Meet The Press). Jonathan Karl asked him about the rumor that he's being considered as a running mate. He replied that neither Trump nor his campaign org has talked to him about it - but he also made it reasonably clear that he'd be on board, should those discussions ever take place.
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