David Zimmerman at National Review:
With less than a year to go before Election Day, former president Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in head-to-head matchups in all seven major swing states.
A newly released Morning Consult poll shows Trump maintaining a strong lead over Biden in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, and North Carolina. Trump’s lead over Biden in Georgia (6 points) and North Carolina (9 points) is outside the margin of error, while his lead in the other five states is within the margin of error and ranges anywhere from 2 to 4 points.
Perhaps folks would find that news sufficiently depressing on its own. But what depresses me is my expectation of how this will play out: Trump's lead over Biden inevitably will narrow as we get closer to the 2024 election. And then Biden will win on election night. And then we'll have 2020 all over again, with Trump claiming that the election was stolen from him, and masses of our fellow Americans will believe him.
What I am reading is that only 24% of Americans are hard core Magas. They are the ones who will refuse to believe that Trump could lose the election. I think a lot of the ones who say they prefer Trump over Biden have rather cynical reasons, based on a preference for Republican policies, but are not so disconnected from reality that they would refuse to admit that Biden won, if in fact he did.
ReplyDeleteI admit that I get a little irritated by the constant poll taking and doom casting. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. We won't know until we know.
I think the best campaign slogan for Democrats would be, " When people tell you who they are, believe them." Trump has been telling us nonstop who he is. He doesn't even try to hide what he intends to do. Are people willing to bet their country that he is just joking around, just pulling your leg. Haha, he's such a card. They need to check out the characteristics of dictators. It's not wrong to say the f-word, "fascism".
ReplyDeleteIn Michigan there seems to be an effort by Republican Party operatives to push border security, fiscal restraint on safety net spending, gun rights, disengagement from global affairs, and support of fossil fuels as The Important Conservative Issues. I hear a lot of GOP leaders here saying that you don't have to like or approve of Trump personally, but he's the only thing standing between you and the state putting windmills in your backyard that will turn your kids into epileptics.
ReplyDeleteA few Republican commentators are pushing back saying that, yah, Trump's ideas are fine, but he won't accomplish anything because he's too busy performing for the media. Most of these are pushing Haley.
The f-word might be Trump Fatigue.
I think it's likely Trump will win. If he does, he might go the way of Nixon, whose die-hard supporters eventually sickened of him. That assumes that Americans have enough collective decency left to be sickened by an autocratic ego maniac. I think that remains to be seen.
The accuracy of political polls has become very questionable. It has become increasing difficult to be assured they are a random sample of likely voters. The refusal rate for polls is very high. It is very difficult to locate people now that many people don’t have land lines. It has become questionable as to whether people give honest answers to polls. Maybe they view the interview as a joke? An opportunity to mess up the despised media? Or think the poll is biased?
ReplyDeleteWhat seems clear from voting is that politics is increasingly partisan, i.e. voting on party lines. It has become increasing difficult for individual politicians or issues to change things. Our national partisan politics is about evening divided. Winning the House, Senate or Presidency is about evenly split.
There is one issue, the right to abortion that might break through the partisan divide, however that issue has to be well understood.
Republicans are not going to become Democrats because they want to have the right to an abortion. However, a majority of Americans, including some Republican women want to preserve the right to an abortion against the threat of having that taken away by Republican politicians.
I think there are enough Republican women in swing states that will vote for Biden because they believe that their right to an abortion is threatened by a Republican president. However, they are not going to vote for Biden if they are not in a swing state. If they are in a solidly Republican state, they are going to vote for Trump. If they think that Biden has a chance in Ohio, they are going to vote for him, otherwise they are going to keep their Republican identity by voting for Trump.
The same is true for contested House and Senate seats. If Republican women who want abortions, see their vote as a possible deciding factor in a Republican House and/or Senate race they will vote this one time for the Democrat.
I don’t think Democrats can help themselves by emphasizing that they are for abortion rights. Many of the Republican women who will now vote for constitution amendments and politicians who are for abortion rights, probably voted for Republican pro-life candidates in past elections because they thought Democrats were too liberal when it comes to abortion and a lot of related issues.
So oddly enough Republican women with concerns about abortion rights could provide Democrats with narrow victories in the House, Senate and Presidency.
I think your ideas about polls are on target. They indicate trends more than outcomes.
DeleteBiden was primarily elected by black voters, more specifically, black women. Young voters may have helped, but they seem inclined to sit out 2024 because Biden is an ancient Liberalcrat helping Israel make a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and the rent is still too damn high.
Abortion and reproductive issues will be hot topics in states with restrictive laws, especially as obstetrical horror stories hit state courts, but it's not at the fore in Michigan, and am guessing it's not in Ohio. Less furor over abortion works against Biden as states turn attention to economic issues.
Anti-immigrant feeling seems to be an issue everywhere. Americans love their Poor Immigrant Achieves American Dream stories--but not if it means taking in poor, non-white, non-European, non-Christians. Out here in the Cornfield, the Sikh owners of the gas station and Subway shop are targets of concern trolling on the local Facebook page. "I was in the Subway, and the individuals serving me did not wash their hands." "I was in the gas station and was charged 20 cents over the marked price on my water." "I saw the police at the Subway. Maybe now they will clean up their act." "Anyone notice the gas station clerks are always watching cricket and the donuts are stale?" Every one of those comments is a Trump vote.
"I don’t think Democrats can help themselves by emphasizing that they are for abortion rights." Jack, I think you are exactly right about that. If people believe that Democrats = baby killers it's going to hurt them. But what has come out of this situation with the Texas AG (who is sketchy as heck) interfering to keep Kate Cox from getting an abortion, is that most people's feeling on the subject are complicated. For instance, my own feelings. I believe it is entirely possible that God can call someone to be a martyr, either by sacrificing their own life or health, or trying to care for a child suffering with a condition such as Tay-Sachs disease that they have no chance of surviving. It's a moot question for a septagenarian like me. But I am not comfortable insisting that someone else has to be a martyr. And especially I am not comfortable with a politician with no medical knowledge interfering with someone's medical decisions.
DeleteMy problem with martyrs generally is that their choices often have ramifications for others, especially their families. Thomas More's wife and daughters lost much of their family property, income, and prestige to the when he was executed. Alice does not seem to ever have totally reconciled herself to her husband's decision.
DeleteDoes the hardship imposed by the martyrdom detract from the sacrifice? I don't know. But I always end up sympathizing with the cowards a bit.
Jean, you are right that martyr's choice often impact their families, in bad ways. I'm thinking of cases such as Margaret Clitherow. Her family had to relocate to France to escape a similar fate.
DeleteI sympathize with cowards too, because I am one.