Election judge report

 This is part 2 of my report on yesterday's primary election.

I worked as an election judge yesterday.  My local suburban precinct, apparently redistricted in the wake of the 2020 election, consists of two basic profiles:

• Dwellers in suburban single family homes.  Based on who I observed yesterday, my own household would be typical: middle-aged (or slightly older!) husband and wife, and one or two older teens or young adults who haven't left the nest yet
• Dwellers of a large senior living complex.  I hope I am using the term "senior living" accurately.  It's basically a campus that contains independent-living townhouses, semi-independent apartments, and a nursing home.  As one would expect, all of these dwellers are seniors.  Most of them with whom I interacted yesterday had birth dates in the 1930s and 1940s - essentially, this is my parents' generation.

To complete the demographic picture: nearly all of the people who came into our voting location (which consisted of three precincts, each occupying its own corner of the school gym) were white.  Nobody in our precinct asked for non-English language assistance; the one or two voters whom I thought might want it would have asked for Polish or another Slavic language, not Spanish.  And to the best of my recollection, I didn't see a single Black voter yesterday at any of the three precincts  Nor is this an area where young adults live in large numbers; besides those mentioned above who haven't left their parents' house yet (which wasn't an inconsequential number, especially daughters), there were one or two young couples who came in together.  Across the three precincts, there are few or no apartment houses, condo buildings or townhouses apart from the senior campus.  This area isn't affordable anymore for most adults in their 20s.

I am going to this length to paint the demographic picture in order to make this observation: the GOP around here is in deep trouble.  

By the end of yesterday's primary voting, more Republican than Democratic ballots had been cast in our precinct.  But that's not a harbinger of future hope for conservatism, because the great majority of those who requested a Republican ballot were the old folks from the senior complex - people in their 70s, 80s and 90s.  

What's more, I would estimate that fewer than a third of the women in our precinct requested a Republican ballot - and nearly all of those Republican women were from the senior campus.  Among young women, I would guess that Democratic ballots were requested by a ratio of at least 8 or 9 to 1.  

And the ratio wasn't much different for young men, like my son who is home from college for the summer.  It was a bit more even for men my age - my sense is that we were a 50/50 split between Republican and Democrat.  Women of my generation were nearly as monolithically Democratic as their daughters.

Approximately 250 people voted yesterday in our precinct.  After a couple of hours, I realized I could guess with fair accuracy, before the voter had even reached the check-in table and spoken a word, which ballot s/he would be requesting.  

Yesterday was interesting in a couple of respects.  The Dobbs decision has been out only a few days; it's surely more motivating for women than men, perhaps even in a place like Illinois where the decision will have no practical effect on abortion restrictions.  And during the day yesterday, that young woman from Mark Meadows' staff offered the jaw-dropping testimony about President Trump on January 6; one or two late-afternoon voters mentioned it to us when they were checking in yesterday, so it was on the minds of at least a few voters.  

What I observed yesterday reinforces the impression that the contemporary GOP is toxic to suburban women.  The Republican Party is anti-abortion, anti-gun-control and has a #MeToo disaster as its figurehead.  The GOP has little or no appetite for better parental leave or more childcare support.  For suburban women, Republicans are on the wrong side of virtually every social issue.  

Most suburban women around here aren't uber-progressive, but they probably make up a good chunk of the persuadable independents.  These hearings on Capitol Hill presumably won't move many dyed-in-the-wool Trump supporters, but all the Democrats really need to do is persuade one or two percent of voters among independents that Republicans are untrustworthy about governing, and Republicans will lose, not only presidential elections, but other elections up and down the ballot.

Based on what I observed yesterday, I don't think the House elections this fall are going to materialize into a "red wave".  Inflation might be severe enough to put the Republicans in the majority, but I think it will be a thin one.