A Different Military View of Putin

I guess I never quite believed the stories the Russian military was inept. However, I think they operate very differently than the US. Military so it is difficult to understand their strategy and tactics.

Putin's Bombers Could Devastate Ukraine But He's Holding Back. Here's Why

"The officer requested anonymity because he is being privately briefed on the war by the Pentagon and is not authorized to speak to the news media.

He and the other analysts who spoke to Newsweek argue not only that the destruction is only a small fraction of what is possible, but also that they see a glimmer of hope in a fact-based analysis of what Russia has done.

"I was initially puzzled as to why more long-range missiles haven't been sent into Kyiv and other major cities such as Odesa, and also why long-range aviation hasn't been used more in strategic attacks," says the second senior officer. "But then I had to shift to see the war through [Vladimir] Putin's eyes."

"Caught with his pants down, perhaps Putin indeed pivoted after he realized that Ukraine wasn't going to be a cakewalk and that Kyiv wasn't conquerable. Maybe he decided to solely focus on taking territory along the periphery and linking up his consolidations in the south, to be in a position to hold enough territory to extract concessions from Ukraine and the west—security guarantees or some demilitarized zone."

The second senior officer says that Putin obviously continues to apply pressure against Kyiv, but Russia hasn't shifted much of its own forces and has continued to back off bombing in the city proper.

"In that, maybe he is leaving room for a political settlement," the officer says.

"I'm frustrated by the current narrative—that Russia is intentionally targeting civilians, that it is demolishing cities, and that Putin doesn't care. Such a distorted view stands in the way of finding an end before true disaster hits or the war spreads to the rest of Europe," the second U.S. Air Force officer says.

Heartbreaking images make it easy for the news to focus on the war's damage to buildings and lives. But in proportion to the intensity of the fighting (or Russia's capacity), things could indeed be much worse.

"I know that the news keeps repeating that Putin is targeting civilians, but there is no evidence that Russia is intentionally doing so," says the DIA analyst. "In fact, I'd say that Russian could be killing thousands more civilians if it wanted to."

"I'm no com-symp," the analyst says. "Russia is dead wrong, and Putin needs to be punished. But in terms of concluding the war in a way that both sides can accept and where we don't see Armageddon, the air and missile war provides positive signs."

There is a lot of detail to the article that strengthens its case. Everyone seems to agree that Russia overestimated its strength and underestimated the Ukrainians.  In particular I think they had fantasies of Zelensky and his government fleeing the country and then the civilians, realizing Russia had won, would welcome them and whatever puppet government emerged.  And, of course, in that situation the West would probably have had trouble applying sanctions.