NYT OPINION
by THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
This Is Putin’s War. But America and NATO Aren’t Innocent Bystanders.
In my view, there are two huge logs fueling this fire. The first log was the ill-considered decision by the U.S. in the 1990s to expand NATO after — indeed, despite — the collapse of the Soviet Union.
And the second and far bigger log is how Putin cynically exploited NATO’s expansion closer to Russia’s borders to rally Russians to his side to cover for his huge failure of leadership.
On May 2, 1998, immediately after the Senate ratified NATO expansion, I called George Kennan, the architect of America’s successful containment of the Soviet Union. Having joined the State Department in 1926 and served as U.S. ambassador to Moscow in 1952, Kennan was arguably America’s greatest expert on Russia. Though 94 at the time and frail of voice, he was sharp of mind when I asked for his opinion of NATO expansion.
I am going to share Kennan’s whole answer:
“I think it is the beginning of a new cold war. I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever. No one was threatening anybody else. This expansion would make the founding fathers of this country turn over in their graves.
“We have signed up to protect a whole series of countries, even though we have neither the resources nor the intention to do so in any serious way. [NATO expansion] was simply a lighthearted action by a Senate that has no real interest in foreign affairs. What bothers me is how superficial and ill informed the whole Senate debate was. I was particularly bothered by the references to Russia as a country dying to attack Western Europe.
“Don’t people understand? Our differences in the Cold War were with the Soviet Communist regime. And now we are turning our backs on the very people who mounted the greatest bloodless revolution in history to remove that Soviet regime. And Russia’s democracy is as far advanced, if not farther, as any of these countries we’ve just signed up to defend from Russia. Of course there is going to be a bad reaction from Russia, and then [the NATO expanders] will say that we always told you that is how the Russians are — but this is just wrong.”
Friedman, as is his wont, has to go overboard somewhere. These are not the people who overthrew communism. Putin was a KGB functionary. I don't want to go head to head with Russia because there may be diplomatic approaches that haven't been attempted plus we are in no shape to war with anyone right now. God forbid what impact this military confrontation can have on our destabilized democracy at home and our economic status. But I have no illusions about Putin and lionizing the Russian rulers is typical Friedman pollyannaism. But I also don't think Putin's military poses a threat to Europe. After 44 years of Cold War and 32 years of overreaction to terrorism and military adventurism, we need a break.
ReplyDeletePutin doesn't play well with others because he likes being a tyrant and locking up people who disagree with him. He's not a good candidate for cooperating with the EU and other Confederations of states. So the logical thing to build wealth and power is to remake the old Soviet bloc through alliances with weaker dictators like Lukashenko or through force.
ReplyDeleteI don't know what the best move is. The guy is a festering abscess, and that infection is going to spread no matter what we do. Sanctions could make him roll into former bloc countries now in the EU, start selling nukes to Iran or N. Korea, or start massive techno warfare.
Josh Hawley says we should just promise never to let Ukraine into NATO.
His friend Trump says Putin's invasion of Ukraine is a "genius move," but he didn't elaborate much beyond saying it would never have happened under his presidency because Biden weak, Hillary spied on him, and he won the election, yadda yadda.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2022/02/22/this-is-genius-trump-praises-putins-move-into-ukraineand-blasts-biden/?sh=560c30987f5c
Amen to what both Stanley and Jean have said. Yeah, especially what Jean said about Putin being a festering abscess. This is the guy that likes to poison dissidents.
ReplyDeleteThe US isn't innocent and maybe NATO expansion was poorly thought out. But I think it was more meant as an overly optimistic encouragement for democratic leanings than a threat to Russian power, which didn't meaningfully exist in the '90s. Of course now it is different and Putin is longing for the good ol' days. You know, when Kruschev was banging his shoe on the desk and saying "We will bury you."
Sorry, spelled Khrushchev's name wrong. I'm sure he is turning over in his grave.
DeleteThat was the days when we practiced hiding under our desks at school to hide from radiation. I don't think it would have stopped much. But was less scary than active shooter drills that kids have now.
One of the things that complicates the Ukraine situation, according to my friend Sergei, is that the Soviets allowed Russians to settle heavily in bloc countries, especially Ukraine. Sergei, an ethnic Russian who was raised there and later immigrated to the US at age 10 with his dad, said that this type relocation was a common Soviet strategy designed to weaken ethnic identity, especially in border areas where there were already substantial numbers of ethnic Russians. (The Chinese have done something similar by flooding Tibet with ethnic Chinese.)
ReplyDeleteSome Russians who moved into bloc countries in Soviet times were KGB operatives.
Sergei, now in his 40s now, was deeply distressed by these Soviet tactics ("KGB is worse than KKK"), and always said darkly that the KGB still runs Russia and always would.
At any rate, there are regions in Ukraine with Russian majorities, specifically Crimea and Luhansk/Donetsk, the eastern regions where Russia is invading. These large ethnic Russian populations, basically created by Russia generations ago, gives Putin the argument that Ukraine and Russia are one people.
Ukrainians, of course dispute this, and in 2018 got the Orthodox Church of Ukraine recognized as a separate entity from the Russian Orthodox Church, to which it had been subordinate since Russians installed their own bishop there in the 15th century. Apparently, Putin's invasion is popular with the Russian Orthodox hierarchy, which still sees itself as the head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church.
Ukraine pretty much gave up Crimea, and Luhansk and Donetsk are probably a done deal. Whether Putin will be satisfied with these three Russian majority areas remains to be seen.
Stalin was a sociopathic autocrat who was more interested in protecting his power than in expanding Communism. Thus the assassination of Trotsky who not only wanted to spread communism but was considered a rival by the Moustache. Assassinating rivals in other countries. Sound familiar. Putin is mostly worried about his power in Russia. There is no ideology. I think the greatest threat is Russia banding together with China and other countries to dethrone the Almighty Dollar as world reserve currency. We were put into this position by hypercapitalist extremists. People label social democrats as extremists too far from the middle. Hypercapitalist extremism has been a critical problem for 42 years.
ReplyDeleteI hate to say this, being 5'7" myself, but Stalin was 5'6" and Putin is 5'7". More similarities.
DeleteI don't quite follow what you're saying about the hypercapitalists and their influence on Russia and China.
DeletePutin's definition of "Russia" seems to extend to other states. No question he uses KGB suppression tactics that he learned under the soviets.
Not clear, I guess.
DeleteThey influenced us, not our rivals. Hypercapitalists worship free trade. Free trade moved manufacturing to China. Hypercapitalists and free trade made China what it is today. But the capitalists did make their billions. Now we are weakened and dependent. I recommend we do some R&R before we get into a fight with strong China and weak Russia. I think I already told my story about my efforts in the 1990's to save the US optics industry from being killed off by free trade. The loyalty of the capitalists to their country lies fourth behind fast money, fast money and fast money.
Ah, yes, I see. Yes. Back in the 1970's the pres and CEO of Dow Chemical gave a speech saying that in the future, people would be citizens of corporations, not countries. That is, corporations would become global entities above governments. Seems about right for corporate bigwigs. But since the demise of unions and professional organizations, seems like the rest of us are pretty much wage slaves going from one gig to another working directly for the corporations or feeding them in some way.
DeleteI recently read about the Hanseatic League back in the Middle Ages. There was a cabal of economic thugs. Not much different now, except the lobbyists do all the dirty work thru government stooges.
Cthulu lives!
If I may add to the CEO's quote, "citizens without votes". If the citizens had a say in the running of the company, that might actually be a good thing.
DeleteLabor should be a check on capital, but it isn't any more, if it ever was.
DeleteThe only time labor ever truly had the upper hand was after the Black Death killed off half the people in Europe. Labor then, of course, became the exploiter. Shoddy workmanship and price gouging became the norm ... and gave rise to the middle class, Protestantism, consumerism, and Keeping Up with the Joneses.
I think Biden is handling the situation quite responsibly. If there is any justice in American politics, his poll numbers will start to reflect it.
ReplyDeleteThis new trend of Republicans sliding with Putin is...well, words fail. Inexplicable? Unamerican? Disqualifying from further consideration as a non-crank?
Uncle Joe's not rushing into a war, he's keeping diplomatic channels open, working with allies, gradually applying sanctions... in other words, WEAK!!!
DeleteThat's always the safest stance from your rootin-tootin right wing. Pussy lefties should have imposed harder sanctions quicker.
And here's the WSJ's editorial today beating that drum:
"Who in the Lord’s name does Putin think gives him the right to declare new so-called countries?’ President Biden asked Tuesday in announcing new sanctions against Russia. The answer is a complacent West, which has failed to impose serious costs despite more than a decade of Russian aggression.
"At least the Administration overcame its initial reluctance to call Vladimir Putin’s deployment of troops in Eastern Ukraine an ‘invasion.’ Mr. Biden on Tuesday called it ‘the beginning of a Russian invasion,’ and he responded with what he said was the beginning of greater sanctions.
"The White House bet seems to be that sanctions restraint will cause Mr. Putin to settle for holding the regions his forces now occupy and forgoing an assault on Kyiv. But the Russian has never been deterred before by Western restraint, and he may see this as more weakness. Mr. Putin responds only to strength, and the West still isn’t showing enough."
I suppose they think Pope Francis is a wuss too; calling for a day of fasting and prayer for peace in Ukraine, instead of beating the drum for war.
DeleteMakes me think of the Lord's words about certain demons, "This kind goeth not out except by prayer and fasting."
https://www.ncronline.org/news/politics/pope-calls-day-prayer-fasting-peace-ukraine
DeleteI suppose the right wing prays for peace, too.
DeleteBut politics being what it is, if war's gonna break out, no sense in wasting an opportunity to score some points by casting the other side as total screw-ups.
Democrats did the same thing when we invaded Iraq: There were no WMDs, and those Republicans knew it all the time, but they love war and killing Muslims.
Putin's making his move apparently as several cities are experiencing explosions along with cyberattacks on Ukrainian websites. Also Putin is warning against interference. Make Russia great again. This world is run by fools.
ReplyDeleteMore dangerous than fools I fear. Comments by Paul Gosar and Mike Pompeo are chilling. Putin first said he was going to liberate the Russian-majority provinces. Now he's going to "cleanse" Ukraine of Nazis. 1939 here we come! Guess I'll go say my rosary. Like Fr. Paul used to say: You know what happens when you don't pray? Nothing.
DeleteIt's an old game played by empires, including our own. They're Nazis or Commies or terrorists, always some excuse. But our moral standing is shot. Problem is, with the military adventurism of the last few decades and the violation of international law, even the illusion of our moral integrity is gone. Add to that the abductions, torture and extralegal imprisonment. It's like my Church making highfalutin moral pronouncements after covering up pedophiles. We've been dirtied.
DeleteBesides prayer, I have been trying to "read in solidarity" with people in parts of the world (and the U.S.) experiencing catastrophes. If anyone is interested in "reading Ukraine," here are some suggested titles: https://theculturetrip.com/europe/ukraine/articles/11-ukrainian-literary-classics-you-must-read/
ReplyDeleteInteresting idea.
DeleteI checked out your link and was unsure as to how to use it. It looked like I had to sign into something which always raises "red flags" for me. I like websites where I can easily browse and sample without much commitment.
Oh, dear. Here is GoodReads page for Ukranian lit: https://www.goodreads.com/list/show/8783.Ukrainian_Literature
DeleteI picked Oksana Zabuzkho's "The Museum of Abandoned Secrets," which looks to include a lot of recent history of the country and is available as a loan through Amazon.
In light of the theme of this post, the historical question now is whether or not Putin is creating the reverse mistake of our expansion of Nato.
ReplyDeleteA total take-over of the Ukraine is likely to revise all the fears of Europe of a resurgent Russian Empire bent upon expansion. Nato will now have a reason for existence.
Especially crucial will be the decisions of the Eastern Countries: Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and
Slovenia.
Are they going to be eager to join with the original NATO countries into forming a strong NATO to completely defend themselves against occupation by Russia, e.g., committing themselves to strong ground and air defense forces with NATO funding rather than expect NATO to send in air and ground forces to save them?
Or are they going to decide that NATO is a paper tiger and each decide to seek the best accommodation with Russia in the hope they will get a better to deal that the rest?
The only way this should have been handled was to set up all the nations bordering Russia as neutral countries. It should be done now as part of possible negotiations but our empire will be afraid that it makes us look weak. We're all weak when it comes to the threat of nuclear war.
ReplyDeleteDiana Butler Bass has a different take on this. She writes extensively on progressive Christianity. Years ago I read her book Christianity After Religion: The End of Church and the Birth of a New Spiritual Awakening and continue to follow her writings in articles and on her blog.
ReplyDeleteShe has a PhD in Religion from Duke, and focused on church history for much of her theological education. She grew up Methodist, switched to evangelical Christianity, and finally landed in the Episcopal church.
She sees the Ukraine situation through an historical Christian lens. I question some of the stuff about Putin, but I do think he was smart in harnessing the power of the Russian Orthodox Church to solidify his power. Trump did this with evangelicals, conservative Catholics, and Mormons in the US.
https://dianabutlerbass.substack.com/p/next-year-in-kyiv?r=45vbf&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=url
I think her article is on target with regard to Russia and the Russian Orthodox Church as is the article below from the Tablet.
DeleteHowever, the concern about an international conservative Chrisitan movement is just the pipe dream of some people like Bannon. If you really understand conservative Russian Orthodoxy, they don't care much about conservative Evangelical and conservative Roman Catholics any more than they care about mainstream Protestants and liberal Roman Catholics. We are all heretics and decadent Westerners.
Probably an opportune time for the PRC to take over Taiwan and its microchip factories.
ReplyDeleteFWIW - I don't think the US has been particularly light-hearted about adding Ukraine to NATO. The country most in favor of Ukraine joining NATO is Ukraine, for reasons which are now blindingly obvious. NATO has been rebuffing Ukraine since the 1990s.
ReplyDeleteSome foreign policy wonk or other mentioned recently that there is an asymmetry at play: Ukraine is considerably more important to Putin and Russia than it is to the US and NATO.
I guess Taiwan will be the next one to go, as the same asymmetry applies.
If/when Putin sets his sites on the Baltic nations, NATO's views on asymmetry will finally be put to the test, as those are NATO members.
Istm that Israel has figured out, for decades now, that the same asymmetry applies in its case. All an Isaeli need do is ask the nearest Kurd.
Not so sure the same asymmetry applies to Taiwan. Stanley mentions the microchip factories. But it's more than that. Taiwan is much more an economic going concern than Ukraine. Hong Kong was too, but all the PRC had to do was wait until Britain's lease ran out, and tighten the screws.
DeleteI learned a lot about Ukraine’s economy today
DeleteIt's the biggest European country, bigger than France.
Donbass territories, occupied by Russia, are as big as Switzerland.
What is happening now is not a small local conflict, but a hazard for the whole world.»
Orig. by Olena Karpenko
For those who ask:
“Why does Ukraine matter?”
1st in Europe in proven recoverable reserves of uranium ores;
2nd place in Europe and 10th place in the world in terms of titanium ore reserves;
2nd place in the world in terms of explored reserves of manganese ores (2.3 billion tons, or 12% of the world's reserves);
2nd largest iron ore reserves in the world (30 billion tons);
2nd place in Europe in terms of mercury ore reserves;
3rd place in Europe (13th place in the world) in shale gas reserves (22 trillion cubic meters)
4th in the world by the total value of natural resources;
7th place in the world in coal reserves (33.9 billion tons)
Ukraine is an agricultural country:
1st in Europe in terms of arable land area;
3rd place in the world by the area of black soil (25% of world's volume);
1st place in the world in exports of sunflower and sunflower oil;
2nd place in the world in barley production and 4th place in barley exports;
3rd largest producer and 4th largest exporter of corn in the world;
4th largest producer of potatoes in the world;
5th largest rye producer in the world;
5th place in the world in bee production (75,000 tons);
8th place in the world in wheat exports;
9th place in the world in the production of chicken eggs;
16th place in the world in cheese exports.
Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.
Ukraine is an industrialized country:
1st in Europe in ammonia production;
2-е Europe's and 4th largest natural gas pipeline system in the world (142.5 bln cubic meters of gas throughput capacity in the EU);
3rd largest in Europe and 8th largest in the world in terms of installed capacity of nuclear power plants;
3rd place in Europe and 11th in the world in terms of rail network length (21,700 km);
3rd place in the world (after the U.S. and France) in production of locators and locating equipment;
3rd largest iron exporter in the world
4th largest exporter of turbines for nuclear power plants in the world;
4th world's largest manufacturer of rocket launchers;
4th place in the world in clay exports
4th place in the world in titanium exports
8th place in the world in exports of ores and concentrates;
9th place in the world in exports of defence industry products;
10th largest steel producer in the world (32.4 million tons).
Source: Andriy Futey
Ukrainian Congress Committee of America Ukrainian World Congress - Свiтовий Конґрес Українців.
Thanks Anne, for these excellent points. Our tendency is to think of the Ukraine as just another small Eastern European country when they are very large.
DeleteJack, thé information was copied from a public Facebook post of a Ukrainian who is now posting on what is happening there. She lives in Kiev. I also had never realized that Ukraine is such a large and economically strong country. On FB she also had a nap with the outline of Ukraine superimposed on Western Europe. I was astonished by its size.
DeleteI presume that's why Russia wants Ukraine. In elementary geography, we were always taught that Ukraine was the Soviet "breadbasket," that the USSR could not survive without it.
DeleteJean, the two articles that focus on the role of religion in this situation are also enlightening. I refer to the article in The Tablet cited by Katherine and the article by Diana Butler Bass that I mentioned. I knew that Putin had harnessed the power and influence of the Russian Orthodox Church to solidify his power. He did that years ago. But I didn’t know how deeply the Russian Orthodox Church had resented the defection of the Ukrainian Orthodox to form their own National church, no longer under the rule of the Russian Orthodox Patriarch. It is seen as a move towards Constantinople - towards the West.
DeleteAnd not only does the Russian Orthodox Church resent the Ukrainian Orthdox, they really, really resent the Ukrainian Rite Catholics. Not sure if it's mainly the PTB, or if the rank and file members also feel this strongly.
DeleteKatherine, that’s one reason Francis’ well- meaning visit to the Russian Ambassador is unlikely to bear any fruit. After all, the Christian East rejected the primacy of Rome more than one thousand years ago, and apparently the split between East and west in Orthodoxy - Constantinople and Moscow - is pretty deep also.
DeleteAnd the irony is that there's really not that much difference in key beliefs among these groups. I think we all accept the Nicene Creed? Rome considers that the Orthodox, either the Russian or Greek ones, have valid Eucharist and priest ordinations. Catholics would be allowed (by the RC) to receive Orthodox Communion if they had no access to their own. But it would be a sticky situation from the other side, very likely the Orthodox wouldn't allow it.
DeleteIt seems like there is much more difference in belief between most Protestant denominations and Catholicism than between us and the Orthodox.
Jim McCrea linked an article from the UK magazine, The Tablet, entitled "The Religious Roots of the Ukraine Crisis". Here is an excerpt:
ReplyDelete"But the evidence indicates that Putin believes, as fervently as the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church, that there is a mystical union in what used to be the land of Holy Rus between the sacred land, the sacred people who inhabit it, and the sacred Orthodox faith. The land itself is an icon, concealing and revealing the presence of God. That last ingredient is crucial.
In Putin’s mind, and to varying degrees the minds of the leaders of the Russian Orthodox Church itself, “Holy Rus” is the Kingdom of Heaven, the eternal tsardom of God in heaven and earth. The land of Holy Rus is thus a holy space, a mystical “New Israel”, where the one true religion is practised and all others within its borders are not just illicit but wrong and to be banished. The rulers of such a space have a duty before God to preserve and protect it. The Tsars were ordained by God to do so. Putin seems to see himself in the same light."
Jim McCrea kindly shared the article, which is behind a pay-wall if you try to access it directly, in his e-mail thread. The whole thing is worth reading.
The excellent article in The Tablet makes some of the same points about the religious roots of the current crisis that Diana Butler Bass makes in her article. However, she also links it to the Christian nationalism movements of conservative western Christianity as well The URL to her article is in my comment above.
DeleteIf you register with The Tablet they give you a few free articles each month. But you have to sign in with the email you give them. I did that years ago - I’ve never been spammed by them or anyone else. They will send ads to try to get you to subscribe but I found that « unsubscribe « from their marketing emails worked.
DeleteAccording to the news sites I have read, there is broad bipartisan support for the sanctions on Russia. However part of the Republicans in the House or Senate think Biden is handling it wrong (because of course they do!) and another part think the whole thing is none of our business and we should butt out.
ReplyDeleteThe responsibility for causing Russia's invasion is one man's, Vladimir Putin. Every diplomatic means of persuasion was tried, but he was hell-bent on his plan of action and nothing would dissuade him.
Every time a war starts, and I include Iraq and Afghanistan, I see us receding into a tunnel with the exit further and further away. The exit is solving climate change and environmental collapse. We can't afford these delusions of empire. Russia is a petrostate. The best way to defeat their adventurism is to create a world of renewables in which they are obsolete. This cannot be done in one day but with constant effort, learning from mistakes and development.
ReplyDeleteYes, I think there is wisdom in that.
DeleteThere is a narrative that goes like this in some evangelical circles: God allowed us to create the climate crisis and will bring good out of it if we work together as a planet to solve it. There are worse ways to see it.
Putin is a creature of the KGB, infected with their cynicism, nationalism, and methodology. What he may be good for is forcing the GOP to face Trump's admiration for the Prince of Lies.
And yet another article focused on the religious aspect of this invasion. An interview with the head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Curch in America. It doesn’t go into as much depth on the history as the The Tablet or Diana Butler Bass articles but reveals the pain now felt by the Orthodox in Ukraine.
ReplyDeletehttps://religionnews.com/2022/02/25/a-religious-politician-head-of-ukrainian-orthodox-church-of-the-usa-slams-patriarch-kirill-putin/
Here is an article on the Ukrainian Catholic connections in Nebraska. A generation ago Ukrainian refugees came here fleeing oppression, hopefully Omaha will accept a new bunch: https://flatwaterfreepress.org/putin-invasion-weighs-heavy-on-nebraskas-ukrainians/
ReplyDeleteThat's interesting. This must be a uniate church?
DeleteMichigan State University has asked for special immigration status for Ukranian students there. Hopefully, allowing the feds will give them across-the-board permission to stay. After all, they're white Christians. Shouldn't be too much yapping from the Trumpsters about letting in people from the sh*thole countries.
https://www.wkar.org/wkar-news/2022-02-25/msus-president-joins-university-leaders-in-asking-for-federal-protection-for-ukrainian-students
Here again as in much of European history, we see Christians fighting against Christians. In this case all of them are Eastern Christians of the Byzantine ritual tradition. Some of the Ukrainians are Byzantine Catholics in union of Rome but most of them are Orthodox. However, the Orthodox within the Ukraine have been very divided with only a minority under the control of the Patriarch of Moscow. The recent acceptance by the Ecumenical Patriarch of most of the Orthodox united around their own leader independent of Moscow resulted in a full break between Moscow and Constantinople with most of the other Orthodox around the world trying to avoid being drawn into the conflict
ReplyDelete.
Why have Christians, especially their religious leaders, been unable to prevent the outbreak of war among Christian nations, and avoid the rise of dictatorial rulers who promote war?
I have heard many things said about Russian Orthodox leaders having been co-opted, first by the Soviets and then by Putin. I don't know anything about it beyond having seen others make that claim. 0
DeleteI suspect the blending of religious identity and national identity doesn't make as much sense to us Americans as it may to Russians and Ukrainians. Their conflict almost sounds like the Reformation.
Hi, Jack. I don't know much about the Orthodox tradition except that some national churches are independent (autocephalous) and others are under the headship of the archbishop of another nation.
DeleteIt doesn't seem to "translate" to the Anglican set-up, where independent countries from the Commonwealth get their own national churches with representation at the Lambeth Conference every 10 years. The archbishop of Canterbury has no status akin to the Pope, but is expected to take an active role in suggestion solutions to disputes, such as the flap between Uganda and the U.S. over ordination of actively gay clergy.