Looks like it might not be over yet.
The Next Big COVID Variant Could Be a Triple Whammy Nightmare
Many of the same epidemiologists who have breathed a sigh of relief over Omicron’s relatively low death rate are anticipating that the next lineage might be much worse.
Fretting over a possible future lineage that combines Omicron’s extreme transmissibility with the severity of, say, the previous Delta lineage, experts are beginning to embrace a new public health strategy that’s getting an early test run in Israel: a four-shot regimen of messenger-RNA vaccine.
Omicron features around 50 key mutations, some 30 of which are on the spike protein that helps the virus to grab onto our cells.
Some of the mutations are associated with a virus’s ability to dodge antibodies and thus partially evade vaccines. Others are associated with higher transmissibility. The lineage’s genetic makeup pointed to a huge spike in infections in the unvaccinated as well as an increase in milder “breakthrough” infections in the vaccinated.
Assuming the decoupling (of hospitalization and death with infection) is happening, experts attribute it to two factors. First, Omicron tends to infect the throat without necessarily descending to the lungs, where the potential for lasting or fatal damage is much, much higher. Second, by now, countries have administered nearly 9.3 billion doses of vaccine—enough for a majority of the world’s population to have received at least one dose.
All that is to say, Omicron could have been a lot worse. Viruses evolve to survive. That can mean greater transmissibility, antibody-evasion or more serious infection. Omicron mutated for the former two. There’s a chance some future Sigma or Upsilon lineage could do all three.
When it comes to viral mutations, “extreme events can occur at a non-negligible rate, or probability, and can lead to large consequences,” Michael said. Imagine a lineage that’s as transmissible as Omicron but also attacks the lungs like Delta tends to do. Now imagine that this hypothetical lineage is even more adept than Omicron at evading the vaccines.
That would be the nightmare lineage. And it’s entirely conceivable it’s in our future. There are enough vaccine holdouts, such as the roughly 50 million Americans who say they’ll never get jabbed, that the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen should have ample opportunities for mutation.
“As long as we have unvaccinated people in this country—and across the globe—there is the potential for new and possibly more concerning viral variants to arise,” Aimee Bernard, a University of Colorado immunologist, told The Daily Beast.
Israel, a world leader in global health, is already turning that expectation into policy. Citing multiple studies that showed a big boost in antibodies with an additional dose of mRNA and no safety concerns, the country’s health ministry this week began offering a fourth dose to anyone over the age of 60, who tend to be more vulnerable to COVID than younger people.
Just what we need, a triple whammy nightmare. Think I'll pass.
ReplyDeleteI would be fine with getting another booster, if that becomes necessary. However supposedly the mRNA type could be tweaked to reflect the newer variants. So why not update the boosters that way, rather than keep giving people the same stuff that is becoming less protective with the changes in the virus?
I think it takes several months to tweak the mRNA, by that time the virus has already become very prevalent.
DeleteI'm guessing, but I think it's the necessity of human medical trials that slow down the process.
DeleteI hope everyone (not just here at NewGathering) is coming around to the understanding that COVID never is going to go away. We have to find a way to reach a truce with it, or at least live our lives in the midst of it. I guess that's what we've spent the last year doing already.
ReplyDeleteYes, I and my old lady friends are texting a lot and watching weather and covid trends: When weather is good, we meet at outdoor cafes or someone's yard for coffee or takeouts. When cases are high we back off and send photos and text.
DeleteAll of us have become closer and more appreciative of this simpler way of socializing and of each other. All of us expect this is the new norm. We no longer make plans for extended trips or visits. No one talks about the bus tour to the National Cathedral or the annual run to the Detroit Institute of Arts anymore. Instead we talk about maybe getting together at the bird sanctuary in spring or fall.
I have taken to scrawling "hi there!" or "good to see you!" or "God bless you!" on my masks. It's my silly way of trying to signal that I am not a terrified misanthropic libtard, just an old pinko enjoying a brief run to the store while dealing compromised immunity.
The local parish and its many new members and priest are firmly in the anti vax/mask camp. Live church, if/when I get back to it, will be with the Episcopalians, who seem very comfortable with distancing and masking. They run morning prayer live, and they are a nice little virtual group.
In some ways, living more in virtual spaces has been good for me. We struggle financially, but that is far less apparent when friends are not dining out, going to shows, or socializing in ways that we can't afford.
I have also really enjoyed my yard a lot more, putting up critter feeders and fixing up the porch as a little reading area. Even on a snowy day, I can spend some time out there bundled up.
Not to be Little Mary Sunshine. There's occasional restlessness and sadness at the world I have lost. But life has consolations if you look for them. And if you don't, you'll become so bitter no one wants to deal with you.
There is a lot of wisdom in what you and your friends are doing, Jean. I suspect that even when Covid is gone, my husband and I will make some changes - less travel, maybe a move west.
DeleteIn December a group of four of us who became friends when our sons were young met at the home of of the one who is almost totally housebound. We hadn’t seen one another together since before Covid. Our hostess’ husband is in bed all the time, almost totally helpless as a late stage victim of multiple sclerosis. He is a friend of my husband’s, who chats with him in his room while the women gather in the kitchen. He can still speak but cannot hold a fork or a glass or work the TV remote.
The other two friends are widows. We decided then that we would get together monthly, with my husband visiting John, who has few visitors these days. We are all vaccinated and boostered and realized how good the get together was for all of us. I am surprised that it has been such a mild winter in Michigan, Jean! We did have a mild fall, but outdoor gatherings will have to be postponed for a while and indoor gatherings might not be safe again, especially since our friend with MS is so very vulnerable. The boosters made us more confident that we could get together safely.
Spring will come though. And we will try to resume our gatherings again at our friend’s home - potluck since she can’t go to cafés and leave her husband. She is the youngest - still in her early 60s, still working, but completely virtually since before Covid. I am the oldest. A part- time nurse assistant comes 3 times a week to help with her husband’s bathing etc. There is a lift next to his bed to get him out of bed and into the wheelchair. They modified their house about 10 years ago when his symptoms got too bad for him to be able to lift himself into the chair. This included creating a bathroom with a roll- in shower. Somehow both of them remain positive under these circumstances, but their isolation is extreme. So we will try to do what we can until in- person can resume. Like do more texting, as you do, Jean.
I'm sure your friends appreciate the attention.
DeleteWinter in our part of Michigan now arrives in late December and exits end of early April. Meteorologists assume it is some sort of climate change effect.
It is +4F right now with bright sun and about six inches of fluffy snow. I enjoy winter a lot, and my energy levels tend to be very high. I will sit outdoors for awhile after lunch as I do every day unless the east wind is up. I need to put a pie plate with seed under the hanging feeder for the groundfeeding juncoes and mourning doves.
There are at least two groups, including the US DOD, who are working on developing a new vaccine that will somehow be able to work with evolving variants. The annual flu vaccine is usually only about 50% effective because they have to guess about which variants will be most likely in a year. But that's enough to provide decent control of spread.
ReplyDeleteThat's interesting about the DOD working on a vaccine. I wonder if it's the same one I read about that supposedly won't need a booster.
DeleteDr. Campell docsplains a peer reviewed Chinese paper on the Omicron variant. This mutation is not in the line of human variants. It is highly adapted to a mouse receptor. This is evidence that it spread from humans to mice, mutated, then popped back into us. Dr. Campbell thinks we'll all get this. The reason to wear masks is to spread out the cases so that the health systems can handle the extreme cases. Omicron may be the vaccination no one can refuse. The doctor calls it humbling if the eventual end to the plague was worked out by the rodents and not by our cleverness.
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/aH1u1GIPU2A
Interesting. Omicron traveled a convoluted path. I hope he is right about it being the eventual end to the plague.
DeleteThanks for this very interesting link.
DeleteToday's follow up link from Campbell on the timeline for this wave in the USA is also interesting. I will be very happy to continue hibernating for a few months until it is over.
Of course, the conspiracy theories are also out there, i.e. that this variant was engineered in mice in a laboratory. It's mere existence even if accidental suggests that perhaps the best way to deal with a dangerous virus might be to create a mild virus that outcompetes the dangerous virus.
Re conspiracy theories, it seems many people are driven to find fiendish human agency behind things that can be explained as natural occurrences. Humans are probably responsible for COVID-19 but only because of extensive contact with a variety of food animals. Even military leaders aren't dumb enough to unleash something that can boomerang back on them and mutate on its own.
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