I don't have a lot to say about this. Headlines this week report that, over a 70 year period, somewhere between 220,000 and 330,000 minors were abused by French clergy and/or in a French church setting. This is pursuant to an investigation by an independent commission. It seems that only a small fraction of those numbers of abuse victims actually came forward to report abuse; the 220K-330K is an extrapolation done by experts and victims advocates. In truth, we don't know exactly how many were abused; it could be those numbers, or even more, or many less.
One news account described this collection of cases as "systemic". Probably that is accurate: it's difficult to believe that tens of thousands of cases of abuse could occur without church authorities being alerted to at least some of them, with the authorities failing to take sufficient corrective action. It is systemic in the same way that police misconduct is systemic: there are bad actors in the rank and file; others in the rank and file are aware of the misdeeds but are disincentivized from doing much about it; and those in leadership have strong incentives to look the other way. This is precisely how social structures enable sinfulness, and then prove to be resilient in the face of attempts to reform the sinfulness out of them.
70 years is a very long time horizon. 70 years ago was 1951. Presumably, almost no abusers and their leaders from 1951 still are alive today. For that matter, a teen who was abused 70 years ago would be an old man now (the commission report notes that the majority of victims are male). Whether French law includes statutes of limitation, and whether they can be lifted, and whether the church would agree to compensate victims even if statutes of limitation remain in place, are details I don't know. Certainly, younger victims whose abuse falls within the statutory window can expect whatever the French church can offer: compensation, payment for counseling and other treatment, an apology, a plea for forgiveness. Any abusers still in ministry should expect to be removed, laicized, sued and possibly charged with crimes.
I don't know of a reason to expect this story will develop along different lines than it has previously in the US, Australia, Ireland, Germany, etc. Those in favor of fundamental church reform will call for fundamental reform. Those not in favor of fundamental reform will resist those calls. Church leaders will try to say the right things, and will leave many people unsatisfied. Francis will say empathetic things and point to church law reforms he already has implemented. Most of the abusers will turn out to be retired or dead. The victims will continue to be embittered. People who are not stakeholders in the church will be frustrated that nothing more gets done. The media will have a field day. Politicians will try to leverage the situation for their political advantage. Some of the faithful will care, and some won't. Some will stay, and some won't.
These investigations, reports and all that flow from them are necessary. I've commented before that I've seen this play out so many times now that I can't really muster shock or surprise anymore. But the sour, sick feeling in my stomach hasn't abated. I expect that the same sequence of reckoning could, and should, play out anywhere the church has been present - which is most of the nations in the world. Every diocese and religious order has its sins it has tried to keep secret. This exhausting, infuriating, interminable shining of light into dark places needs to continue until there are no more dark corners in the labyrinth which is the institutional Catholic church worldwide.