It seems that the scientific consensus has been that COVID-19 had a natural origin, that it started out as an animal virus which crossed species, perhaps with bat to human transmission. Or maybe through an intermediate species, such as pangolin. That is, until it wasn't the consensus any more. The lab leak theory was dismissed early on in the pandemic by most in the scientific community, But lately it has gained traction again. What happened?
I attempted to find objective news sources to shed some light on the subject. But that wasn't easy; I was able to find plenty of right wing and conservative news sources (Fox, New York Post, National Review, etc.) which basically said, "See? We told you so!" However, this article, Wuhan lab leak: Why scientists are interested in this Covid origin theory (msn.com) has a good discussion of the facts.
"What's new? A US intelligence report found that several researchers at China's Wuhan Institute of Virology fell ill in November 2019 and had to be hospitalized, a new detail about the severity of their symptoms. It's not clear the researchers contracted Covid-19 and the lab strongly denied the report, calling it a lie to push the so-called lab-leak theory for the disease origin."
"Scientists affiliated with the institute have previously said the institute did not come into contact with Covid-19 until December 30. The US had actually provided some funding for the study of coronaviruses and their transmission through bats, which had made it to the Wuhan Institute of Virology. On Capitol Hill Tuesday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said it would have been a "dereliction of duty" not to fund earlier coronavirus research in bats in China."
Separately, at the White House, Fauci said many scientists still believe the disease occurred naturally, but it's also imperative to get to the bottom of it with more investigation.
An adviser for the World Health Organization, Jamie Metzl, said the lab-leak theory is possible while scientists were "poking and prodding and studying" viruses with the good intention of developing vaccines. "Then I believe what possibly happened was there was an accidental leak followed by a criminal cover-up," said Metzl.
"...Fauci, the top infectious disease expert in the US, also said this week he is not convinced the disease occurred naturally and pushed for more investigation. That is the takeaway here: There needs to be more investigation."
"...An in-depth study conducted by the WHO with the Chinese government, published in March, explored different possible origins of the disease and concluded that while it was not yet provable how the disease evolved, it was likely it was transferred to humans either directly from bats, or more likely from an intermediate species that got it from bats and then passed it along to humans."
"The WHO report argued the lab-leak theory was "extremely unlikely," although it cited the lack of infected lab workers before December as an argument against the theory. The US intelligence report now suggests lab workers were sick earlier than December."
"Early in the outbreak, which China did not appropriately warn the world about, Chinese officials blamed transmission on an early hotspot, a seafood market in Wuhan, although that seems now to be essentially a lie, according to Metzl."
"In fact, there's ample evidence the Chinese government tried to cover the existence of the virus up... "Whatever the origin of the pandemic, that first month when China was spending all of its energy trying to cover things up rather than fix the problem, that was what allowed the stove fire to become a kitchen fire to become a house fire to become a world fire," Metzl said."
"China has been unwilling to submit to an open investigation; it insisted on strict parameters for the earlier WHO study. The US government and others have criticized that lack of transparency and the WHO has also called for further study.China has been unwilling to submit to an open investigation; it insisted on strict parameters for the earlier WHO study. The US government and others have criticized that lack of transparency and the WHO has also called for further study."
"...Dr. Paul Offit, an infectious disease expert at the University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, told CNN's Wolf Blitzer it was unlikely the Wuhan lab had manipulated the virus to make it more contagious using controversial gain of function research -- but we've got to find out." While Chinese authorities have stayed unwilling to allow such an open investigation, Offit said the world needs it in order to guard against another pandemic. "What I do know is they have to allow this," Offit said. "This is now the third pandemic strain that has raised its head in the last 20 years. The first was SARS 1, the second was MERS. I think that we can assume that we're not done with this." And, he went on: "I think that we need to be able to know this the minute it happens. I mean it is unfair that we had to rely on a whistleblower in China to tell us that there was a virus that was circulating in Wuhan that was killing people. That delayed things. It didn't give us the chance to act as quickly as we needed to act and I think they are culpable on that one."
That the virus had originated and/or escaped from one of the two infectious-disease labs always had been a plausible supposition. But it lacked evidence. It still lacks dispositive evidence, as I understand it - but it's still one plausible explanation.
ReplyDeleteAny president would be derelict not to at least look into it. So glad to read that Biden's intelligence teams are briefing him on it.
FWIW - a friend shared this Twitter thread with me. This author, whoever he is (maybe formerly a writer with the Guardian?), seems sensible. This was published on May 17, so before the WSJ reported this past weekend that three scientists in Wuhan were sickened with symptoms consistent with COVID-19 earlier than China has admitted seeing patients with the virus.
https://twitter.com/Gurdur/status/1394473457019244544
President Trump many months blaming China for the virus with basically no evidence presented to support the claim, so he probably is personally responsible for discrediting the idea in the minds of more mainstream and responsible media organizations.
The weaponization theories are to me the least likely. Accidental leakage of a virus that was being studied or purposely mutated so as to prepare for a pandemic, that is possible. It would be expected for the authoritarian regime to cover it up. That's what they do. But viruses transfer from critters to humans regularly and it could easily have been natural. Unless the Chinese system collapses like the Soviets, I see no hope in finding the truth of the matter and, well, we may collapse first.
DeleteJim, thanks for the Twitter thread link. That was interesting.
DeleteEscape from the lab seems a very reasonable hypothesis from what we know about the virus. First its transmission is mostly by aerosol rather than large droplets and surfaces as originally thought. Second many people get infected by it without symptoms. Third it transmits from people before they become symptomatic.
ReplyDeleteEssentially, cover-up, deflect, or blame somebody else, by China lost valuable time in getting ahead of the virus. It's easy to find fault with them, but we have done it in the past, too. Seems like it's an easy temptation to succumb to, but in the end it does no good and only prolongs the problem.
ReplyDeleteThe "gain of function" research seems problematic. I know it is a legitimate research tool, potentially yielding valuable information, but it would be easy for a lab accident to happen.
"Essentially, cover-up, deflect, or blame somebody else, by China lost valuable time in getting ahead of the virus. It's easy to find fault with them, but we have done it in the past, too."
ReplyDeleteCover-up, deflect, blame somebody else ... in a nutshell, that is how church authorities dealt with the sexual abuse of minors by clergy. It's the universal bureaucratic instinct at work. I still work in corporate America, so I see it - probably take part in it - every single day. Cover your *ss.
Regardless of how the virus got started, treatment, mitigation, and prevention remain the same. Get as many people vaccinated as possible, and continue to observe prudent precautions.
ReplyDeleteAnd increase and verify lab safety protocols, as well as put in place adequate communication protocols intra and inter nationally.