EPIDEMIOLOGISTS ON THE PANDEMIC

 IMPLICATIONS FOR CHURCH AND WORSHIP 

Summary

While small group events, (a bible study with a dozen people) or even a larger group event (such as a choir rehearsal) are safe if everyone is vaccinated, church worship services are risky (only 8% of epidemiologists are now willing to attend them) because the number of new cases per day is still high and many people are not yet vaccinated.  Vaccines are not one hundred percent effective; the higher the number of unvaccinated persons, and the higher the incidence in the community, the higher the risk of infection of a vaccinated person and their transmission of the virus to others who are at greater risk. Vaccinated persons at higher risk and/or caretakers of persons at high risk need to pay attention to what epidemiologists are doing and saying.

 Of the 723 epidemiologists who participated in the survey, 35 percent work for governments. The rest are mostly academics. The questionnaire was distributed to two major professional groups, the Society for Epidemiologic Research and the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, as well as some individual scientists. The survey was done from April 28 to May 10. Not all epidemiologists answered every question

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“Overall, the epidemiologists’ advice was to hold on to most precautions just a little bit longer, particularly when it comes to indoor activities or those with large groups of strangers.” 

 Most epidemiologists (74%) hiked or gathered outdoors with a friend, and saw doctors for non-urgent appointments (64%).  The persons in these situations were safe and reliable.

 Epidemiologists said that vaccinated people should continue to limit the number of people they see especially indoors since vaccines aren’t one hundred percent effective.  

 Less than half (43%) of the respondents interacted outside within 6 feet without a mask (43%). Even fewer hugged or shook hands when greeting a friend (39%), or visited an older relative or friend in his/her home (35).  In all these situations vaccine status is less predictable  

 The more people that are in a space, the more chances the vaccine has to fail. This is especially true if the vaccine status of other people in the space is unknown.

 Almost every one stayed away from gyms (15%), weddings and funerals (10%), church services (8%) sporting events, concerts and plays (6%).

 Epidemiologists were even concerned about outdoor events, if the crowds are large and uncontrollable such as protests and concerts. They advise against attending such events

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“Although government mandates are lifting, these experts say the pandemic won’t really end nationally until more people, including children, are vaccinated.”

 The true end of the pandemic, when it is safe to return to most activities without precautions, will need at least 70 percent of Americans of all ages to be vaccinated according to the epidemiologists. They think this will happen, but not as quickly as many Americans want.

 The respondents agree that Americans’ reluctance to accept vaccines is the biggest threat to ending the pandemic, along with the arrival of new variants and people’s unwillingness to observe social restrictions in the meantime.

 They were asked about masks before the new C.D.C guidance. “In particular, they say that masks are a norm that should continue. More than 80 percent of them said people should continue to wear masks when indoors with strangers for at least another year, and outdoors in crowds.”

 The epidemiologists took a long term general health perspective. They hoped that people would have to travel for work less often. They wanted expanded grocery delivery and takeout restaurant options to continue, as well as tele-health visits for routine medical appointments. Many buildings have improved their ventilation systems, more upgrades will pay off when it comes to other respiratory diseases. They also hoped people would keep habits that make them healthier in general: avoiding things like going to work when sick, shaking hands and even blowing out birthday candles. In other words they don’t want to return to the old normal but want a new healthier normal.

Hundreds of Epidemiologists Expected Mask-Wearing in Public for at Least a Year

This survey was taken before the new C.D.C guidance. In the survey, 80 percent said they thought Americans would need to wear masks in public indoor places for at least another year. Just 5 percent said people would no longer need to wear masks indoors by this summer.

“Unless the vaccination rates increase to 80 or 90 percent over the next few months, we should wear masks in large public indoor settings,”

In large crowds outdoors, like at a concert or protest, 88 percent of the epidemiologists said it was necessary even for fully vaccinated people to wear masks

One-quarter of the epidemiologists in the survey said they thought people would need to continue wearing masks in certain settings indefinitely, and some said they planned to continue to wear them in places like airplanes or concert halls, or during the winter virus season.

MY OPINION

When at the present time over ninety percent of more than seven hundred epidemiologists say they think it is too risky to attend church (along with sporting events, concerts, and plays) we ought to pay attention.

Why are events like church services so risky even for people who have been vaccinated?

Epidemiologists recognize that no vaccine is one hundred percent effective.  Vaccinated people can get the virus, be hospitalized and die. Therefore vaccinated people should continue to avoid places that carry the highest risk of exposure both for their own sake as well as that of vulnerable people among their contacts.

Assuming one is vaccinated, the most important risk factor is the number of new cases per day in one’s local area. If that were zero, there would be very little risk.  If there are only ten new cases per day in one’s city or county that would mean (assuming people will be infectious for two weeks) that there are at least 140 infected people who know they have the virus. The actual number who have the virus might be two or three times that many, maybe even five hundred people.  Right now new cases per day are far too high in almost all parts of the country.  Church services, sporting events, concerts and plays have the potential of having too many people who could spread the virus.

The second most important risk factor is the number of unvaccinated persons that one may encounter. Unvaccinated people are far more risky that vaccinated people.  Limiting one’s interactions only to vaccinated people greatly reduces one’s risk.  If one could be sure that everyone at church, a sporting event, a concert or a play were vaccinated, then these would be much safer events. As long as these events don’t require proof of vaccination in order to attend, they will remain very risky as long as the number of new cases per day is high.

Some people will attend these events because they are risk-takers, or because they think the benefits outweigh the risks. The value of the epidemiologists’ opinions is that they verify what is truly risky regardless of one’s willingness to take risks, or how one weighs the risks versus the benefits.