The nation and the world received a much-needed jolt of good news yesterday. Here are Carl Zimmer and Katie Thomas in the New York Times:
As coronavirus cases surge in the United States and elsewhere, with little relief in sight, the world got good news on Monday. Pfizer and its partner, the German company, BioNTech, announced preliminary results that suggested their vaccine was more than 90 percent effective.
The public and the stock market rejoiced, at least for a day. But the new vaccine still hasn't crossed the finish line - and it's far from clear that the logistics exist to get it into the hands of the public.
Pfizer and BioNTech did their best to qualify the good news: these results are only preliminary; clinical trials are not complete and could still run into snags; government approval has not yet been obtained (nor applied for yet, although that could happen by the end of this month); the government may require weeks or longer to review and approve the data; the effects of the treatment are not yet well-understood on seniors and children, as clinical trials have mostly not used those age ranges so far. The NY Times FAQ by Zimmer and Thomas is a good primer on the current status of the vaccine.
If all continues to go well and FDA approval is obtained, we may see production ramping up sometime in the first half of 2021 - perhaps even as soon as the end of this calendar year for high-risk patients:
Pfizer’s chief executive has said that it could have 30 to 40 million doses of the vaccine before the end of the year, enough for 15 to 20 million people to get an initial shot and a booster three weeks later.
Exactly who will qualify for the initial doses has not been decided, but groups that are at higher risk for infection, or are more vulnerable to the virus, are likely to get priority. That could include health care workers as well as older adults and those who have risk factors like obesity or diabetes.
Pfizer and BioNTech say they could ramp up to 1.3 billion doses a year. That’s still far from enough to satisfy the world’s need for vaccines. If other vaccines also prove effective, companies will be able to manufacture them as well and help meet the demand.
It all sounds hopeful. But:
At ProPublica, Isaac Arnsdorf, Ryan Gabrielson and Caroline Chen have glanced downstream from mass production of the new drug, and asked the question, How do we get the new vaccine delivered to those who need it? What they found is that the logistics could be complicated:
As the first coronavirus vaccine takes a major stride toward approval, state governments’ distribution plans show many are not ready to deliver the shots.
The challenge is especially steep in rural areas, many of which are contending with a surge of infections, meaning that access to the first batch of COVID-19 vaccines may be limited by geography.
The chief problems have to do with how the drug would be packaged, transported and stored:
The Pfizer vaccine is unusually difficult to ship and store: It is administered in two doses given 28 days apart, has to be stored at temperatures of about minus 100 degrees Fahrenheit and will be delivered in dry ice-packed boxes holding 1,000 to 5,000 doses. These cartons can stay cold enough to keep the doses viable for up to 10 days, according to details provided by the company. The ice can be replenished up to three times. Once opened, the packages can keep the vaccine for five days but can’t be opened more than twice a day. The vaccine can also survive in a refrigerator for five days but can’t be refrozen if unused.
Health officials haven’t figured out how to get the ultracold doses to critical populations living far from cities, according to a ProPublica review of distribution plans obtained through open records laws in every state. Needing to use 1,000 doses within a few days may be fine for large hospital systems or mass vaccination centers. But it could rule out sending the vaccine to providers who don’t treat that many people, even doctors’ offices in cities. It’s especially challenging in smaller towns, rural areas and Native communities on reservations that are likely to struggle to administer that many doses quickly or to maintain them at ultracold temperatures.
Much hope has been invested in president-elect Biden's leadership to help us turn the corner against the coronavirus. He already has announced his new coronavirus task force, and plans to hit the ground running in January, despite manifest lack of cooperation so far from President Trump, who still is pursuing his quixotic court appeals to overturn the election results in key states. That President Trump would subordinate progress against the virus to his political goals is disappointing, if not especially surprising.
But the ProPublica article illustrates that, even if the outgoing administration was committed to a clean hand-off to its successor, critical components of the supply chain for delivering the vaccine to us are not under the direct control of the federal government. State governments and private enterprises like Pfizer are critical components of the delivery system. For the vaccination program to succeed, the country will need effective private-public partnerships, and also cooperation between different levels of government.
It seems the Trump administration is not the only political entity which is trying to leverage this situation for political advantage, even at the risk of gumming up the works. New York governor Andrew Cuomo raised conservative eyebrows yesterday when he expressed disappointment that a viable vaccine may start shipping while President Trump still is in office. Zachary Evans at National Review reports:
“The good news is the Pfizer tests look good and we’ll have a vaccine shortly. The bad news is that it’s about two months before Joe Biden takes over and that means this administration is going to be implementing a vaccine plan,” Cuomo told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on Good Morning America. “The Trump Administration is rolling out the vaccination plan and I believe it’s flawed. I believe it learns nothing from the past.”
Cuomo then proceeded to sow further distrust in the federal government:
Cuomo has previously stated he would be skeptical of a vaccine approved by the Food and Drug Administration during Trump’s tenure.
“What I said I’m going to do in New York is we’re going to put together our own group of doctors and medical experts to review the vaccine and the efficacy and the protocol, and if they say it’s safe, I’ll go to the people of New York and I will say it’s safe with that credibility,” Cuomo said in mid-October. “But I believe, all across the country, you are going to need someone other than this FDA and this CDC saying it’s safe.”
Cuomo is not alone in expressing a lack of faith in President Trump's handling of the crisis. But when the Trump administration exits and the Biden administration enters, the vast preponderance of FDA and CDC teams, processes, tools and standards won't change; they didn't change because Trump came into office four years ago, and they will continue on as before after the impending change in leadership. Just speaking for myself: if Pfizer's vaccine receives FDA approval, even the accelerated emergency approval stood up under the Trump administration's Operation Warp Speed, I will trust that the books have not been cooked to approve a dodgy medication. And if Cuomo insists on his team re-reviewing what the FDA already has approved - that sounds like further delay in distributing the vaccine. If I lived in his state, I'd be hopping mad.
Regardless of who is occupying the White House when vaccines start to ship in large numbers, the problems of how to get the doses into the hands of medical professionals who can administer the treatment to patients still need to be solved. And even a competent Biden administration may not have the authority to unilaterally solve those problems. It will require cooperation among all involved. Biden has been promising in recent days to unify the country. This could be his first chance to demonstrate his unifying bona fides: Mr. President-elect, show that you can work with your own agencies, Republican governors and private enterprises to get doses of this vaccine to people who need them.
Jim, I'm in agreement with you that I'm inclined to trust the FDA and CDC teams. For what it's worth, all the pharmaceutical companies working on vaccines have pledged not to bypass the normal processes for ensuring safety and effectiveness.
ReplyDeleteIt is interesting that the vaccines being developed by Pfizer and Moderna are mRNA vaccines. They would be the first of this kind to be marketed. Previous vaccines have used killed or attenuated viruses to stimulate the production of antibodies. The mRNA type go straight to the production of antibodies without the presence of the virus at all. The antibodies target the signature "spike" protein on SARS-CoV-2. The need for cold storage of the vaccine is specific to the mRNA and lipid nanoparticles. If the mRNA technology is successful, it can significantly shorten the development time needed for vaccines for other illnesses as well.
One unanswered question, because of our short history with the virus, is how long immunity lasts. It is generally thought to be at least three months for someone who had the illness. It is possible that it may be longer with the vaccine; at least that is what is hoped. The vacvine is given in two shots a year apart.
DeleteCorrection; the doses would be 21 days apart rather than a year.
DeleteA reminder that even though this mRNA vaccine is the first rattle out of the box, research continues on a number of other vaccines based on the more traditional mode of the killed or attenuated virus, which is basically the same model used by Edward Jenner in 1796 in developing the smallpox vaccine. The research is being carried out in multiple nations. The Israelis are working on one which is an oral mist, and would be much easier to carry out in developing countries where the cold storage for an mRNA vaccine wouldn't be available. The double dose mode isn't necessarily a handicap, both the Salk and Sabin polio vaccines are triple dose. And we are used to the childhood vaccines requiring booster shots.
DeleteThe ideal situation would be that we end up with multiple vaccine options, with different ones being suitable for different circumstances. And health science will benefit in many ways from the research being carried out in vaccine development.
Boy, didn't take you long to blame Joe Biden for a failed vaccine distribution system, did it, Jim?
ReplyDeleteI don't know what all Cuomo said or why.
But is it possible he is dismayed that a vaccine that poses some tricky distribution challenges--has to be kept at -90 degrees, must be given in hospitals already over-strained, requires two shots, no clear determination re who should get it--is going to be distributed by a president who has spent the last 8 months ducking any responsibility for covid policy? He has not even met with his covid task force since August or September. He said in a recent interview that "a general" had it all worked out. Apparently he couldn't be bothered to learn the name of Gus Perna, who heads up Operation Warp Speed.
I don't know how you expect Biden to "unify" things and "work with his own agencies" when Trump has blocked Biden's access to them.
Your Republican friends are walking around DC saying Trump is going to win. Some are probably don't believe it, but are humoring him (and his base of voters because they need all the white racist votes they can get). And if Biden stumbles because the Repubs enable Trump in obstructing a smooth transition, they'll accuse Biden of incompetence.
Uncle Joe has an ugly thankless job ahead of him. I'm not sure the nation even wants to be unified. And he's almost 80. You can't hold up the sinking Titanic with a half deflated rubber dinghy while the captain deliberately steers it into the iceberg.
We knew ahead of time that post-election was going to be a long and ugly ordeal. But think of it as similar to when a hurricane is downgraded to a tropical storm. The worst is over, but there's still plenty of suffering to be done. And the mess to clean up afterwards seems overwhelming. But eventually it is over.
DeleteI am dismayed by the Republicans in government who are mollycoddling Trump's tantrum. I think most of them know the jig is up, but humoring their toddler has a cost to the country. I don't know how many of you saw Jim McCrea's email forward of the Trump tantrum parody, which may be viewed here. But it gave me a needed laugh and perfectly sums up the situation.
There are a few Republicans in high places, such as Mike Pompeo, who apparently believe their own bs. He will be remembered as the class A pompous jerk who lectured the pope and subjected reporter Mary Louise Kelly to a profanity laden diatribe. But she burned him on Twitter following his threat that the electoral college would basically be "fixed" in Trump's favor. He reportedly walked it back on Fox, but still.
"Boy, didn't take you long to blame Joe Biden for a failed vaccine distribution system, did it, Jim?"
DeleteYou're talking out of your crocheting, Jean. Nothing I wrote in the post blames Biden for anything. It's not Biden's fault that the Pfizer vaccine brings with it a packaging plan that requires entities to buy the vaccine in large minimum quantities, nor that the vaccine has burdensome freezer storage requirements which may be beyond the reach of smaller and more isolated health care providers.
But, since you mention Biden: I have low expectations that the course of the virus is going to change in any substantial way when Trump no longer is president and Biden is in charge. That's not because of any judgment I have about the abilities of either man. It's because the president of the United States can't fix this thing on his own. The entire apparatus of the federal government can't fix this on its own.
A lot of Americans tend to have mystical expectations for presidents; they want a god-king who will protect them from all evil, heal all wounds and crush all their enemies including the domestic ones, rather than the limited administrator which the Constitution prescribes. The god-king phenomenon is plainly visible among the Trump true believers, plenty of whom probably believe that the election was stolen from their idol. It was also plainly visible among Obama groupies, plenty of whom are trying, rather half-heartedly it seems to me, to recapture that emotional magic with Biden, poor guy.
The previous Democratic president also came into office facing a serious crisis. He brought with him all the trappings of a god-king. But as it turned out, he was a tomato can; the recession cleaned his clock. No president can unilaterally fix the economy. Let's be realistic about what President Biden can accomplish on his own. He certainly takes the virus more seriously than Trump, and maybe that's not nothing.
As I mentioned in the post, he's going to need a lot of help. Can Biden reach across party lines and get many entities of many different sorts on board? We'll find out very shortly.
As for Cuomo: he's not the first Democrat who apparently believes that the laws of physics and biology only work when Democrats are in charge. Cf the Vice President-elect's stupid vow that she will not take a vaccine which is released to the public while Trump happens to be in the White House. It must be news to Pfizer that its vaccine's 90% efficacy rate is a pack of lies because Trump is in the White House.
"The previous Democratic president also came into office facing a serious crisis. He brought with him all the trappings of a god-king. But as it turned out, he was a tomato can; the recession cleaned his clock."
DeleteTomato can? Without that tomato can, there would be no General Motors today, and the number of unhoused Americans would be in the hundreds of millions. Trump can claim to be the Great Electrician because he showed up with his tool kit just as the power company turned the light back on.
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DeleteJim, thank you for clarifying.
DeleteI don't think Dems should gin up unnecessary fears about "Trump's vaccine." But I share their concerns. Trump has eroded faith in the government, and he has weakened our oversight bureaucracies. Patients of color have a long history of getting hurt by "researchers," so I understand Harris's statement, even if I don't condone it.
I agree that Americans put too much stock in The President. But I've heard Republicans excuse Trump with the obverse of that argument: He's just a flawed man like the rest of us. I think it goes we beyond "flawed" in his case.
Of course the president alone cannot fix the pandemic. Two things any of us can do to help besides following the CDC rec's:
1. Volunteer for vaccination trials. I talked to the doc about this, as there was some talk of wanting high-risk elderly patients to test. I probably don't live close enough to monitoring sites to be a candidate, but they've got my number.
2. Tell your family to offer your body for autopsy if you die from covid. This is the ONLY way doctors can assess the systemic effects and treatment success of the disease. For instance, it was how blood clots in some patients were discovered, which advanced anti-coagulation therapy for some patients. My autopsy permission is in writing along with other info clipped to the fridge.
Slight correction, I don't crochet, I knit.
Katherine, yes, long ugly ordeal. I am probably not in any frame of mind to respond to the merits of Jim's comments and criticisms.
DeleteI am finding it hard just now not to see all Republicans as complicit in the horror that is Trump.
I will vacate for awhile as I do periodically to regain equilibrium and perspective.
Oh Tom - yes, he bailed out General Motors. Do you know what that was? It was the equivalent of all those photo ops which Trump did in which he "prevented" factories in Indiana or Wisconsin from closing and moving offshore. I guess that's all fine as far as it goes, but those all are essentially what I called them above: photo ops. They didn't really make any difference at all in the grand scheme of things. General Motors could have lived or died and the overall economy barely would have blinked.
DeleteObama wasn't a complete failure in fighting the recession. But unemployment was high throughout his presidency, see details here: https://www.statista.com/statistics/193290/unemployment-rate-in-the-usa-since-1990/
GDP was not as disastrous, but was at the same underwhelming-ish performance level it's been at throughout this century - and he started with a really low baseline. Details here: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/gdp-growth-rate
Regarding housing: I think you added a few extra zeros to the number of households saved :-). The Obama Administration ran a program called HAMP (Home Affordable Modification Program). I say "ran" because HAMP was part of a much larger program called TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) which actually was signed into law by President Bush before he left office. I think TARP, whose main goal was to bail out troubled financial institutions, is generally thought to have been a successful program - and even though it was a Bush program, Obama's administration was the team that administered it, so maybe Obama should get partial credit.
But the part of TARP meant to help homeowners, HAMP, was not exactly a resounding success. Here is the LA Times from 2016, headline: "Obama's foreclosure prevention program has helped far fewer homeowners than expected". The article states that Obama officials' initial expectation was that it would help 4 million homeowners. In actuality, it helped about 1.6 million, and a third of those fell behind on their mortgage payments anyway. https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-obama-foreclosure-20161230-story.html If we're going to give Obama credit for TARP, then he should get the blame for HAMP.
Anyway, my basic thesis in all this is that we shouldn't have high expectations for what a president can accomplish, either for the economy or the virus. Presidents take credit when those things go well, and they get blamed when those things go poorly, but for the most part, they are not pulling the levers to drive those outcomes.
I fully expect that within a year, nearly everyone in the US, and most citizens of Planet Earth, will have been inoculated against COVID-19. That will happen on Biden's watch, and he will claim credit for it. As we've seen, much of the groundwork for this success has been because of private enterprises, which are pursuing vaccines at record-breaking paces because they want to help people, and also because they will profit from it. That pursuit has been aided by the federal government - the same government headed by Trump, who is widely reviled for bungling the nation's response to the virus. As things stand now, it seems reasonable to say that is why he lost last week's very close election. But the government under his watch has contributed to the progress we've apparently made so far - even though, as I say, the good fruits of the effort will ripen under Biden's watch, and he will get to claim the credit for it. So it goes in American politics.
Jean, thanks. Pile all the opprobrium on Republicans you see fit. It's been a very dark four years for the GOP.
DeleteFWIW, I volunteered for two clinical trials. One, I am pretty sure, was for Moderna. Not entirely sure what the other one was. One of them courteously declined my offer; I guess I am not the right demographic profile for what they were looking for. I'm not young, and not perfectly healthy, but I think they were looking for older and sicker. Just guessing that based on some of the questions in the questionnaire. I never heard back from the other research hospital. It's possible they could still call me.
Jim, I agree to an extent that presidents don't and can't pull the levers which drive outcomes in things such as epidemics and economics. What they can do is provide leadership. Trump politicized resonse to the virus, including common sense, low tech responsed such as wearing masks and avoiding large public gatherings, which is all we really have until the high tech stuff kicks in. He lost precious time acrewing around in denial that the crisis actually existed. He spent more time Twittering to his fan base and watching Fox than he did listening to briefings. Where he failed was in actually being a leader.
DeleteKatherine - no argument from me.
DeletePence's task force seems to have some competent people on it. Some people are sufficiently patriotic to even work for Trump.
All this rejoicing about a vaccine, taking credit for a vaccine and assessing blame is premature.
ReplyDeleteThings are going to get terribly worse in the next several months to a year before they get better. Trump put all his (and our marbles) on the idea that he could get a vaccine quick enough to avoid shutting down the economy again and thereby win reelection. So now we are a nation headed for disaster.
Here in Ohio the problem is not hospitals, or beds, or ventilators, or masks it is personnel. There are not going to be enough staff to take care of the patients.
Part of that is that many caretakers are getting sick themselves. We cannot pull people in from other parts of the country. We now know the last time around people not only couldn't get elective procedures many avoided them and then promptly got into more difficult problems. So we have to solve the hospital problems before they become critical. Unfortunately that is certainly weeks not months away.
Gov. Taft is going to address the state of Ohio this evening. I wonder if he is going to have the guts to begin to shut down the state. So far he has been pleading with people to wear masks, social distance, keep to your own bubble. etc. But it isn't working.
Because he isn't shutting things down people are still thinking that we can stop this virus without stopping normal life and the economy. That won't happen.
If we don't stop the virus, it will stop the economy beginning with our health care system. If I were in DeWine's position I would have shut down the bars several weeks ago as a signal, I would be shutting down restaurants now, and advising people to stay at home except for essential business.
Government is not impotent. Ohio and many other states prevented a serious immediate problem in the spring. Unfortunately Ohio and most other states reopened too quickly rather than following strategies that would have keep the virus at a level that strategies of testing, contract tracing and quarantine could have been effective.
In the spring shut down was aided by the spring weather that eventually left people get outdoors. Now we have to spend a long winter mostly indoors.
I suspect the vaccine won't be widely available until spring or summer. Maybe it will be effective enough that we will avoid a third wave next fall.
Some of the info about Michigan's U.P. hospitals is germane to Jack's post. Most of the info on the little hospital in my old home was not a surprise. But the fact that PPE orders have only recently arrived was a shock. https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health-watch/small-hospital-michigans-upper-peninsula-braces-covid
DeleteThere is also not enough general information to help people care for stricken family members at home and guidelines for when they need hospital care.
Individuals caring for patients at home should receive free PPE, sick food, and instructions on isolating within the home.
Jack is right about the healthcare workers. Some of the ones who missed getting sick in the first wave are getting it now. My niece who had a baby in July thank God didn't get it while she was pregnant but got it now. She is a PA in a pulmonology clinic. They have a big house so she can isolate pretty well. Her husband is working from home and taking care of the baby. She is pumping milk for baby, they say he can actually get some passive immunity that way. She is slowly getting better, but has gone through all the symptoms such as feverish and fatigue, and loss of taste and smell. Definitely healthcare and first responders should get first crack at a vaccine.
DeleteMy husband and I have discussed how we could handle it if one of us got sick. Kind of hard to isolate in 900 square feet with one bathroom. We do have a basement but no bathroom down there. The well person checking into a hotel is a possibility. But what if the sick person took a sudden turn for the worse with no one around? We would probably just do the best we can at home. We have a pulse oximeter which could give warning of low oxygen levels. I guess push the fluids like you do for any illness. And give one bedroom over to the sick person.
Katherine, God heal your niece and shield the rest of your family. M's daughter had no respiratory distress but still has a cough. She may have had a parallel infection giving her a sore throat and was given antibiotics. Being young and female are big advantages.
Deletethe sick person here would isolate in a separate room with the door closed and HEPA filter on. Both would wear masks for bathroom and food breaks. But I can't see how one of us could be sick and the other not get it in this teensy house.
DeleteWe have food runs and health checks to Lansing planned if The Boy has to quarantine. How much longer he can hold out on temp job with no additional assistance is anyone's guess. But the GOP and Limousine Liberals are playing hardball with relief package negotiations, unemployment benefits are running out, and everyone is living on handouts from family, foodbanks, credit cards, and the whims of their landlords.
Obamacare is too expensive, so a lot of the unemployed are also uninsured. There was a two-day free drive-thru flu shot clinic in Lansing. We offered to pay for his flu shot, but The Boy took a sack lunch and a plastic urinal and waited for hours to get the free one.
All part of the fun of a pandemic with out-of-touch politicians in charge. And we wonder why kids are drawn to Bernie's brand of socialism.
"Obamacare is too expensive, so a lot of the unemployed are also uninsured."
DeleteI guess I don't get this little wrinkle of Obamacare. I thought the Obamacare "safety nets" for that kind of a situation would be (1) as my income gets reduced, my Obamacare subsidy should increase? and (2) Obamacare also expanded Medicaid eligibility. Jean, did Michigan reject the federal Medicaid subsidies? I know a long list of states did so in the wake of Obamacare going live, but I thought many/most of those state had now gotten with the program.
Yes, Michigan has Medicare, but a lot of people are in the "donut hole"--too much income for Medicaid, too little for Obamacare. The donut hole is expanding as policies become more expensive and Medicare benefits are not adjusted to cover.
DeleteThe state's benefit system is also overloaded right now, so it's wait wait wait and then get rejected.
I will spare you my rant about how it's all the fault of the GOP legislature.
DeWine is moving slowly but deliberately toward greater lockdown. But it is likely to be too little, too late.
ReplyDeleteDuring the briefing, DeWine reinstated a few orders and reviewed the current state Ohio is in as cases continue to rise:
Revised Mask Order
Each business will be required to post a Face Covering Requirement sign at all public entrances to the store.
Each store will be responsible for ensuring that customers and employees are wearing masks.
Our new Retail Compliance Unit, comprised of agents led by the Bureau of Workers' Compensation, will inspect to ensure compliance.
Event/Gathering Protocol
DeWine asks that people to not host birthday parties, sleepovers, baby showers ect.
If you feel that you have to be with people who don’t live in your home, wear a mask, he said.
Revised Policy for Congregate Areas
Open congregate areas can no longer be open.
Everyone must be seated and masked unless they are actively consuming food or drinks.
“Dancing and games prohibited,” DeWine stated.
Look-Ahead
“If the current trend continues and cases keep increasing, we will be forced to close restaurants, bars and fitness centers,” he said.
DeWine will reassess the situation a week from Thursday.
And yet countries such as S. Korea, Taiwan, and New Zealand have succeeded in stemming the spread of Covid without shutting down their whole economy. Sweden was sort of trying the herd immunity thing, but it hasn't worked out so well for them.
ReplyDeletePA cases are increasing literally exponentially. Death rates are rising but not yet proportional to the infections. Remember that phrase "flattening the curve"? Haven't heard it lately. Maybe because the second derivative, the slope of the slope, is strongly positive. I will not be attending any family holiday parties, if they have them. Their trumpiness makes me think they will.
ReplyDeleteCases are exploding in Illinois, too. Some days this week saw double the number of new cases compared to the same day the previous week. Our positivity rate (the seven day moving average) is about 14%. That's the highest it's been here since last May when we were in the midst of our spring spike. But 14% is great compared to Iowa, where it has been approaching 50%(!)
ReplyDeleteI don't completely understand why it is spiking so aggressively now. I am sure that lackadaisical mask wearing and flouting of the precautions we're all familiar with is a contributing factor. But that has been going on all along, so why is the infection accelerating now?
Called down to my cousin in King of Prussia. One of her sisters went to another cousin's 60th birthday party. Everyone packed in. Now she got it and gave it to a sister, her son and daughter-in-law and their two kids. Thankfully, everyone is doing ok with varied collections of symptoms but no respiratory problems.
ReplyDeleteI think this example explains the outbreak. People relaxing (tired of) isolation and distancing. Cold weather forcing everyone indoors. One person in this case spread it to five other people. Trumpthink also exacerbates the problem.
Stanley, if you're right about that, then Thanksgiving is going to get us to herd immunity.
DeleteJim, my nurse friend said that one thing different this time is that the whole country is in pandemic. Before, when it was coastal, you could beef up your staff with travelling nurses. They may not be available thus time. Although they know more about treatment, if the system is overloaded, the death rate may spike as well.
DeleteMy choir is singing on Sunday. I'm going to pass this time. They're all showing up. Even though it's a small group, there's not enough room to distance in the choir loft. We are allowed one verse of an entrance and exit hymn, and a Gospel alleluia. I have sung wearing a KN95 mask the whole time, which most of them don't. It's not worth it. If we're not careful we're going to end up like the other parish.
DeleteSome Canadian nurses had volunteered to come to Michigan earlier in the pandemic.
DeleteHowever, things have changed pretty drastically:
--Canada had 5,500 new covid cases nationwide yesterday. Compare that to nearly 6,500 cases yesterday in Michigan alone.
--Canadian test-to-infection ratio is about 2 percent. In Michigan it's past 10 percent most places, and no further restrictions on schools or businesses are being made.
--A nurse on Michigan radio yesterday reported that her hospital is back to re-using PPE again. Shortages are expected as Trump continues to obsess about the election and there has been no remedy at the federal level to ensure that hospitals have plenty of PPE and don't have to fight each other for it.
--More Michigan sheriffs have made statements that they refuse to enforce public health requirements like masks, I guess because they're mad that Trump was not re-elected.
--In the spring, Canadian nurses were told that if they came here, they had to stay here. I expect that still holds, which means separation from families in a hot zone for months.
So I can't imagine we'll get much of an influx of health care workers from across the border to help us this time. Rural hospitals here are relying on the National Guard being able to set up and staff emergency field hospitals. Hope the vote tabulators get out of the TCF Center in Detroit pretty soon because they're going to need it for covid patients again.
Yesterday I found myself looking at the Michigan electoral map to figure out where we might move to get out of this red county of idiots.
Katherine, we have some very antsy retirees in the local parish who are hell-bent on having their Advent fish fries. They have drive-thru service only, but there are too many people working in the kitchen, and they are not food service professionals who know what they're doing.
DeleteThe problem with opening up churches--or anything else--is that people just want to fall back into old habits.
I hear people saying that they're "just trying to give people a little normality." But it's insistence on things as normal that's making people sick.