In 2018 we learned the lesson, or should have, that election night results aren't much more reliable than pre-election polling: they're projections based on incomplete data. In the new election reality of massive numbers of mail-in ballots, many of which don't even arrive, much less get tabulated, until several days after Election Day (which should be renamed Last Voting and Postmark Day), final results may take more than a week to compile - and the final results can look considerably different than they looked on the evening of Election Day.
So don't believe everything you've read and heard about the election results. Both Republican and Democratic elected officials, aides and strategists have been saying for the last two days that Republicans over-performed: Trump did much better than expected; Republicans have held onto the Senate majority; Republicans made unexpected gains in the House. Don't believe any of it. Or at least, don't take any of it to the bank. There are still many votes to count - and usually those mail-in votes tilt heavily toward Democrats. At least one Georgia Senate race, and very possibly both of them, are going to go into run-off elections to determine whether two Republicans, two Democrats, or one of each will be representing that state. If it turns out that both of them are Democrats, then in fact the Senate will have been flipped, with Vice President Harris acting as the decisive vote in case of tie votes*. (Conservative West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin's thoughts and deeds will become matters of great national interest if that scenario comes to pass; he becomes the new Susan Collins.) I concede that it's unlikely that Democrats will pick up both Georgia Senate seats. But it's not impossible - seemingly no more impossible than Trump winning Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Nevada to retain the presidency. As of earlier this morning, I believe that Republican Senator Thom Tillis' re-election in North Carolina wasn't settled yet, either.
So let's wait and see. None of this is decided yet, and none of it needs to be decided yet. We have time. Let's use it to get this right.
* Note that I am not following my own advice here: I am assuming that Biden and Harris have won, which also is not yet a sure thing. I am supposing that the remaining states in play will fall as projected, and that Trump's litigation is meritless.
Besides waiting for the results, since so many of the races are so close we are going to have to wait for the recounts, and the lawsuits.
ReplyDeleteWhile everybody is watching the vote count, I am watching the Virus count now up to over a 100,000 a day. Biden really needs to be able to organize a hopefully bipartisan response to the virus now, not in a month or after inauguration day.
Illinois is really bad right now. I hesitate to use up all the adjectives like "disastrous" and "calamitous" because it can get much worse than it is now. But it's bad enough right now. Our positivity rate (seven-day moving average) is at 9% now; that's roughly double what it was at this point last month. It's much worse than it was last spring. Last spring's graph of daily infections now looks like a bunny hill; this month's is more like a double black diamond slope.
DeleteWe are getting hammered. Infection to test ratio is 10+ percent with more than 5,000 new cases today. A friend and husband are in quarantine until his test results come in due to his work exposure.
DeleteGov. Gretchen has been stripped of emergency powers and today begged the GOP legislature to pass a mask mandate. The GOP leaders have said, pshaw, masks don't work, we need herd immunuty, death rates are down, you are scaring off business, there was no kidnap plot, a vaccine will be here immediately, protect our Second Amendment, stop the count!
Like many rural counties our infection rates are higher than average because we didn't pay attention to the earlier infection spike in rural areas.
Good advice, Jim. It's not over until it's over.
ReplyDeleteTrump has pretty much given up on the virus. It will be hard for Biden to do much until he is out of office (if he is out of office). Trump has hinted he will fire Fauci, though he would have to do it indirectly. Maybe if he is declared the victor Biden can work out some things behind the scenes in a bipartisan way in the lame duck period. Would help if they could free up some relief funds.
I feel patient.
ReplyDeleteI want an accurate count and as many recounts and failed lawsuits as it takes to once and for all drill it into thick GOP skulls that voter fraud claims promulgated by their idiot President are lies, damn lies, and that they should be ashamed of their President who has cast such doubt on our national institutions.
Stupid and cruel policies are one thing. I don't think either party has a monopoly there. But undermining the integrity of our elections, our election officials, and thousands of citizen volunteers is a national disgrace. The election should be verified beyond a doubt--no matter who wins--so that Trump can never play that fraud card again.
And if Trump has to be told a hundred times that he is a loser, well, that just makes patience now all the more worth it.
Joe Biden agrees with you -- patience.
ReplyDeleteHe has already passed Obama's record of 69,498,516 for the highest vote count for president in American history. Wow. As of noon today, The Don was less than a million short of surpassing the Obama record as well.
That is truly distressing.
But winning the popular vote, as we learned as recently as last time, is no guarantee of anything. And winning the most votes in a state, as we learned in 2000, is no guarantee of winning the state.
So even as I am patient, I am depressed.
My pastor called today about something else, but he began by saying Washington was trying to reach me because they need a president up there and were having trouble finding one. I told him I wasn't interested.
ReplyDeleteBut it did occur to me that I would accept majority leadership in the Senate. Then I could block all of Biden's Cabinet appointments and, of course, all his judicial nominations because a president shouldn't get to appoint judges during the last four years of his term. That is real power. Hope Joe and Kamala figure out a way to handle State, Treasury, Commerce, Labor, HHS, Housing, the SBA, SSA, CIA etc. by themselves. Hahaha. The government of the United States of America? What a joke.
So I am further depressed.
We've discussed the Trumpistas who are cynical, and don't care what he does as long as their stock portfolios are doing okay. And the ones who are willing to overlook his racism and cruelty because, well, they sorta like it. But there is another category; that would be the ones, particularly women, who are self-gaslighting. Here is an example:
ReplyDelete"You hear Trump’s unsophisticated words, I hear Trump’s honesty. You see Trump’s racism, I see Trump’s words being misconstrued and twisted by the media daily to fit Ytheir narrative. You see Trump as a Republican, I see Trump as a Patriot. You see Trump as a dictator, I see Trump as a leader. You see Trump as an Authoritarian, I see Trump as the only one willing to fight for our freedoms. You see Trump as childish, I see Trump as a fighter, unwilling to cave in to the lies. You see Trump as an unpolished politician, I see Trump as a breath of fresh air. You see Trump’s cages at the border, I see Obama’s cages at the border. You see Trump with a struggling economy, I see Trump with an amazing economy until the Democrats shut it down. You see the violence in the streets and call it “Trump’s America”, I see the violence in the streets of Democratic run cities who are refusing Trump’s help and call it “Liberal America.”
What this reminds me of is a woman who insists that her husband is a stand-up, wonderful guy. Even though the whole town knows he is cheating on her, and owes money to every loan shark in the place. Why does she keep up all the happy talk, when all it does is make her look stupid? I don't know, I guess because it would be too painful to admit she was duped.
I saw those words more or less exactly in a comment by a woman in a Facebook group I belong to. They must be making the rounds of trump people.
DeleteYeah, I don't think it was original material, something making the rounds. Probably made up by a Russian bot.
DeleteNow that they're counting PA drop-off ballots like mine, my county of Monroe just went blue. Hopefully, this will continue until the orange is squeezed out.
ReplyDeleteThe headlines I am seeing this morning report that Biden has pulled into the lead in GA, but the lead is fewer than 1,000 votes. Seems likely we are headed to a recount there.
ReplyDeleteBased on what I have been reading so far, PA seems to have the most questionable rules for qualifying ballots, and therefore would seem to be the most fertile ground for litigation. Conservative outlets are screaming that the PA Supreme Court ruled recently that mail-in ballots without postmarks(!) can be counted. Neither political party is going to roll over and accept that if it ends up on the short end of the count.
What I am seeing is that in PA biden is ahead by 6000 votes now. Agree about the mail-in ballots without postmarks, but how many of them are there? I'm guessing nowhere near 6000. And how did they end up without postmarks, is it due to the latest USPS upheavals?
DeleteMany states have drop boxes for mail-in ballots. I assume those ballots don't go through the mail system, so they wouldn't get postmarked. But there should be some sort of date/timestamp process to indicate when they're received. Maybe this issue will turn out to be a nothingburger. And completely agree that if the margin is wide enough, it's not going to matter.
DeleteJim, is there some other cut-off in Pennsylvania besides postmarks? For instance, in Michigan, your ballot has to be received by the time polls close, either by mail, in person, or in a drop box. Any ballots that are received after 8 p.m. are not counted. Interestingly, if you are in line to vote at 8 p.m., the polls will stay open to accommodate you.
DeleteThe state did a great job providing an online tracker where you could confirm that your ballot had been received and approved for counting. If you didn't have Internet service, you could call a otline, and someone would check for you. This info was sent with ballots. It was very well planned. Sadly, it was overshadowed by Sec of State Benson telling people erroneously that open carry at the polls is unlawful.
It may be that Pennsylvania's ballot laws are squishy in some way, and that, of course, should be examined. I for one want Trump's repudiation to be as unassailable as possible.
As I understand it, Georgia has some provision for overseas military ballots that might come in late, but I was unclear on how that would affect the count there.
There is not enough dispassionate reportage on the differences among states about absentee ballot rules. I might argue there is not enough dispassionate reportage about the election, period. Reporters should be used to Trump's travesties, lies, and tantrums to refrain from pearl-clutching commentary. Yeah, he lies and baits professional journalists. But you're professionals, so get over it.
WaPo explained that military ballots (about 9,000 sent, a few hundred received so far) can be counted if they are rec'd by end of day on Friday after voting day. Normally they would not make any difference, but Biden is only leading by a few thousand votes, so those could be important in the upcoming auto recount.
DeletePennsylvania has a Republican legislature.
DeleteIn other non-news, the Sharpies election officials gave people in Arizona to fill out their ballots CAN be, and ARE being read by machines. Crayolas also would work.
Michigan's Legislature is also deeply Republican.
DeleteProtesters are still milling around Detroit, but friends on the ground there say they are just quietly grouchy now.
Glad they settled down to quietly grouchy in Detroit. My sister send me a link about some kind of major harassment going on earlier.
DeleteOur state's voting instrument of choice was ball point pens this time. Used to be #2 pencils. Actually the pens are easier to use.
We put our ballots in a drop box in the parking lot of a local government building that was monitored by camera 24/7 . A few days later we received emails saying they were received. Last week we got emails saying our votes had been counted. This is Maryland.
DeleteAnne - I'm told Georgia has similar drop-box processes, including the camera monitoring. I also read that the Georgia secretary of state did something, can't remember what, at 7 pm on election night which prevented any further ballots from being dropped in the drop boxes.
DeleteThese sorts of procedures really do build confidence in our democratic systems - I hope enough to more than offset the egregious things the president is saying about illegal votes. Whatever the outcome of the election, there should be consequences for the fear and distrust he is attempting to sow.
Under the heading of weird election stuff to think about while we await any official announcements, our state had an amendment on the ballot abolishing the provision that slavery could be used as a punishment for crimes. You may say, "What the what??!" Slavery has been abolished since the Emancipation Proclamation. How did 32% of the voters end up voting against the amendment in the 21st century? Turns out it's all in the wording. Which was confusing. The amendment was about involuntary labor in the prison system (so why not say so?). Think chain gangs, which as far as I know, Nebraska never had. Many people interpreted it as, prisoners can no longer make license plates. Which they don't do anymore, either. I wouldn't be surprised if license plate manufacture wasn't outsourced to China. The ones now are plastic here. But anyway, apparently some people thought it would do away with prison work programs, which can be vital for people finding employment after their sentence is served. It wouldn't have had anything to do with that. But no, 32% of Nebraskans don't think we ought to still have slavery.
ReplyDeleteRhode Island voted to take the "and Providence Plantations" out of its official state name, even though the Providence Plantations were there before the cotton gin. And never grew cotton. Nor ever had happy slaves strummin' the banjo down by the levee. Day-am, let's skip 8th grade calculus and teach history again.
DeleteSomething else people brought up was that the amendment might do away with people doing "community service", picking up trash, etc. But that's normally on the county level.
DeleteKatherine - I was surprised on Election Day how many voters were visibly bewildered and/or put off by the state constitutional amendment on our ballot in Illinois. I don't mean they felt strongly in support of it or against it; I mean they had no idea what it was, what its purpose was and what impact it would have on their lives.
DeleteThe purpose of the amendment was to abolish the requirement that the state income tax be a flat tax; had it passed (apparently it didn't), the expectation was that the state legislature would replace the existing tax code with a progressive tax. Our governor had committed $50+ million of his own money to promote passage of the amendment, as the progressive income tax is the keystone of his plan to fix state finances. His ads hammered home the idea that almost everyone in Illinois would get a tax cut if the amendment passed. Another of the local billionaires spent $50+ million of *his* own money to oppose the amendment. So anyone who watched network television could not avoid being inundated with messaging about the amendment.
But on Election Day, several voters complained vocally, 'What is this? What does this mean? Do I have to vote either way?' That last question is sort of a fraught question, because the more people who skipped over the amendment item on their ballot, the worse the prospects for the amendment's passage.
My takeaway is that there are an awful lot of people who are low-information, low-trust toward government, and are pretty cantankerous about it. I really think we've failed as a society in our civics education.
And maybe the people who write the amendments to be voted on need to take a class in writing as communication.
DeleteBut yeah, "low information voters" are a thing.
Deliberately making ballot questions unreadable is an art form. You have to hire experts when you do it. In Florida, all questions that come from the public have to be studied by the stare Supreme Court, and if the justices can't understand them they don't go on the ballot. BUT questions proposed by the Legislature and the every-20-year constitutional revision committee don't need judicial approval. Naturally, they are the muzziest. Nevertheless, there are several non-partisan organizations, including the League of Women Voters, that make simple explanations available.
DeleteI see that Donnie Trump Junior has urged his father to declare "total war" on the election. I was trying to figure out who he reminded me of. Decided it was the sheriff's dimwitted son in the movie "Smokey and the Bandit".
ReplyDeleteGovernor DeWine gave the best explanation for Trump’s appeal. He said Ohioans like a fighter, a politician who takes up causes that are being neglected. That is why Ohioans liked former Senator Metzenbaum, a liberal Democrat.
ReplyDeleteNot looking good for Team Trump. He needs to win Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and then either Nevada or Arizona to get 20 more.
ReplyDeleteOf those, the only state he's leading right now is North Carolina.
Not over yet. But the picture is becoming clearer.
I really hope no one is serious about trying this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/06/state-legislatures-electoral-college-steal/
ReplyDeleteThe Florida House convened in 2000 and voted to seat Bush electors. The Supreme Court acted before the state Senate could take it up, but the Senate president told me later that the Senate was never going to take it up.
DeleteThe genius behind the House action went on the the U.S. Congress, but then became collateral damage in the Jack Abramhoff scandal.
News flash for Tom: Louie Gohmert has rushed to the barricades in Philly in defense of His President. God.
DeleteTrump won, at least among the Caucasian population. Something like 57% versus Biden's 43%. Shameful. Thank God, the minorities were there to save democracy. Enough to make me want to become transblack.
ReplyDelete