Trump & the Virus

My recent post HEADED TOWARD A THIRD PEAK linked to the NY Times graphs which showed the spread of the virus in space and time.  Around the beginning of August, I realized that after the second peak on July 19th at 66690 cases the spread of the virus was beginning to recede at an average rate of 1.5% less per day.  Indeed "it was going away", and if it had continued to go away new cases would have been done to around 15,000 new cases per day by election day. 

By September 11th cases were down to a running seven day mean of 31799 cases per day just as predicted. However on that day its downward trend was reversed and an upward trend at the rate of 2% per day began. If that rate continues we will reach a running seven day average of over 87000 cases per day by election day. A new high was reported for yesterday of 85085 new cases, so that there is a good chance that will happen.

So while the virus is not going to go away, it may have been possible on September 11, if we had already implemented more testing and case following, to actually bring the virus levels down to 15000 cases. If the Trump administration had endorsed rather than opposed these measures, he might now be in the position to claim that victory is in sight. Instead, at least some and perahps many very bad months are ahead. Unless we get a successful vaccine, or are willing to go into extreme lockdowns, our only other hopes are that the virus recedes next summer and/or herd immunity develops at far lower levels than most experts think.  

My Cases Projections Updated

		NEW	SEVEN	1.5%	OVER	TIMES	2%	OVER
		CASES	DAY	LESS	UNDER	2WEEK	MORE	UNDER
		PER DAY	MEAN	PER DAY		%	PER DAY
SAT	25	68200	67567	67567	0
SUN	26	54300	66633	66553	-80
MON	27	59200	65583	65555	-28
TUE	28	63100	64467	64572	105
WED	29	68460	64210	63603	-607
THR	30	64632	62982	62649	-333
FRI	31	67741	62906	61709	-1196
AUGUST	1	58183	63553	60784	-2769
SUN	2	48849	61828	59872	-1955
MON	3	47832	59283	58974	-309
TUE	4	58800	57673	58089	417
WED	5	53633	55840	57218	1378
THR	6	55267	53761	56360	2599
FRI	7	54332	53119	55514	2396
SAT	8	55196	54177	54682	505
SUN	9	53772	55167	53861	-1305
MON	10	53724	54321	53054	-1267
TUE	11	53344	54273	52258	-2015
WED	12	53723	54015	51474	-2541
THR	13	53213	53829	50702	-3127
FRI	14	53066	53474	49941	-3532
SAT	15	50335	52901	49192	-3709	-16%
SUN	16	51523	52534	48454	-4080	-17%
MON	17	40022	50314	47727	-2586	-16%
TUE	18	43226	48564	47012	-1553	-17%
WED	19	42932	46851	46306	-544	-17%
THR	20	46029	45678	45612	-66	-17%
FRI	21	45273	44834	44928	93	-18%
SAT	22	45007	43748	44254	505	-19%
SUN	23	32340	42468	43590	1122	-22%
MON	24	40309	41982	42936	954	-21%
TUE	25	38712	41278	42292	1014	-22%
WED	26	44877	41086	41658	571	-22%
THR	27	45561	41134	41033	-102	-21%
FRI	28	46556	41393	40417	-975	-6%
SAT	29	41869	42981	39811	-3170	-2%
SUN	30	33239	41802	39214	-2589	-19%
MON	31	36132	41372	38626	-2747	-17%
SEPT	1	44027	41231	38046	-3184	-13%
WED	2	40607	40405	37476	-2929	-12%
THR	3	45600	40246	36913	-3332	-12%
FRI	4	51457	41844	36360	-5484	-7%
SAT	5	42800	43437	35814	-7623	-7%
SUN	6	31061	42592	35277	-7315	-4%
MON	7	25167	39449	34748	-4701	-9%
TUE	8	28549	37439	34227	-3212	-13%
WED	9	33201	35373	33713	-1659	-13%
THR	10	37786	33094	33208	114	-16%
FRI	11	35028	31799	32709	911	-17%	31799	0
SAT	12	39184	33153	32219	-934	-18%	32435	718
SUN	13	35085	34806	31736	-3070	-17%	33084	1722
MON	14	36836	36187	31260	-4927	-12%	33745	2441
TUE	15	38211	37022	30791	-6231	-10%	34420	2601
WED	16	39124	37245	30329	-6916	-3%	35109	2136
THR	17	40105	38091	29874		-1%	35811	2280
FRI	18	48875	39706	29426		-3%	36527	3179
SAT	19	41783	40822	28984		-1%	37258	3565
SUN	20	36401	40750	28550		1%	38003	2747
MON	21	54875	43527	28121		7%	38763	4764
TUE	22	37237	43213	27700		13%	39538	3675
WED	23	41481	43442	27284		14%	40329	3113
THR	24	45176	42826	26875		17%	41135	1690
FRI	25	54536	44951	26472		21%	41958	2993
SAT	26	42707	46002	26075		24%	42797	3205
SUN	27	37322	43077	25683		23%	43653	-577
MON	28	37234	43076	25298		15%	44526	-1450
TUE	29	43355	43388	24919		13%	45417	-2028
WED	30	41983	42856	24545		11%	46325	-3469
OCT	1	46398	41500	24177		8%	47252	-5752
FRI	2	53427	43287	23814		7%	48197	-4910
SAT	3	47986	45064	23457		8%	49161	-4097
SUN	4	34491	44607	23105		6%	50144	-5537
MON	5	42222	44418	22758		6%	51147	-6729
TUE	6	42449	44496	22417		6%	52170	-7674
WED	7	52523	45516	22081		9%	53213	-7697
THR	8	56045	45953	21750		12%	54277	-8325
FRI	9	58375	47684	21423		12%	55363	-7679
SAT	10	51094	50451	21102		12%	56470	-6019
SUN	11	44333	50803	20786		15%	57599	-6796
MON	12	45929	51383	20474		19%	58751	-7368
TUE	13	52141	51320	20167		21%	59927	-8607
WED	14	59750	51937	19864		23%	61125	-9188
THR	15	65151	53066	19566		25%	62348	-9281
FRI	16	70451	56293	19273		29%	63594	-7302
SAT	17	52774	57699	18984		28%	64866	-7167
SUN	18	47601	57978	18699		30%	66164	-8186
MON	19	64164	59982	18418		34%	67487	-7505
TUE	20	60590	60122	18142		36%	68837	-8715
WED	21	62485	59678	17870		32%	70213	-10536
THR	22	75049	60444	17602		33%	71618	-11174
FRI	23	85085	65829	17338		34%	73050	-7221
SAT	24			17078			74511
SUN	25			16822			76001
MON	26			16569			77521
TUE	27			16321			79072
WED	28			16076			80653
THR	29			15835			82266
FRI	30			15597			83912
SAT	31			15363			85590
NOV	1			15133			87302