In the Sasse thread, Jim provided a link to a National Review article in which the author shares the angst facing conservatives in the upcoming election. The reasons given imply that this is a normal election, with normal issues and policy choices. But it is not.
As Katherine has noted, it is an existential choice. The future existence of America as we knew it, as a democracy, lies in the balance. It is not a normal election where the choice of candidates might rest on tax or regulatory policies, or minimum wage, or judges. It is a matter of choosing what kind of country and people we want to be - defining what our values are (not our policies). I don't see how any genuine conservative can choose to vote for Trump if they truly care about America's bedrock values, and America's future.
As noted in the article, Trump has been sending very clear signals about his intentions - he will lose, he will declare election fraud, he will declare a state of emergency, he will count on the Supreme Court to back his claims of election fraud. I have been very aware of everything said in this article since last spring. Everyone should have become fully aware of it by now. But .....one more time.
I have recommended Timothy Snyder's books more than once. Commonweal currently has an article by Prof. Snyder.
Snyder does not even address the issue of Trump's agenda of racism - first articulated against Latinos and Muslims in 2016, and now, very clearly, against black Americans. He no longer even attempts to hide his racism. For that reason alone, he should be rejected. Voting for a candidate who ran on a platform of inciting fear and hatred of "the other" in 2016, who has doubled-down on that in 2020, is as immoral a vote as I can imagine. In the Commonweal article, Snyder brings up additional moral and ethical aspects of a pro-Trump vote.
https://www.commonwealmagazine.org/not-normal-election
Excerpts below:
In normal times, we might regard any vote as ethical. To
participate in an election is to dignify oneself as a citizen with a voice, …
But these are not normal times.
…. For months .., [Trump] has been signaling that he cannot beat …Biden …When he tried to summon the armed forces to aid him in June, it was the gesture of a man who needed unusual forms of help. When he tweeted in July that elections should be delayed, he revealed that he did not think he could win them. Undermining the United States Postal Service, asking his supporters to vote twice, and saying that he will not accept the results: all of these are ways of saying that he expects to lose. … Trump tried, as he has done for months, to delegitimize the election …
…If we take Trump at his word and begin with the premise that he cannot win the election, then his actions make sense. The plan is not to win … but …to stay in power in some other way. ….. Trump has spelled it out himself: he will declare victory regardless of what happens, expect state governments to act contrary to vote counts, claim fraud from postal ballots, court chaos from white nationalists (and perhaps the DHS), and expect the Supreme Court to install him. … the idea behind these scenarios is to create as much chaos as possible, … fall back upon personal ruthlessness and an artificial state of emergency to stay in power. If Trump creates a constitutional crisis while his supporters commit acts of violence, the Supreme Court might be intimidated.
In this transition from democracy to authoritarianism, otherwise known as a coup d’état, the actual number of people who vote for Trump matters less than … in an ordinary election. … it matters more how angry they are, and how willing some of them are to endorse extraordinary actions by Trump….
It is unusual for a plan for a coup d’état to be broadcast
so clearly. … By telling Americans in advance that he intends to stay in power
regardless of the vote count, Trump is implicating his supporters in the action
as it unfolds. …He is making them understand that they are participants in the
unravelling of American democracy. …. This is a lesson of modern tyranny:
authoritarianism need not be a conscious project of those embraced by it. They
need only sleepwalk through the roles assigned to them. … they will find rationalizations
for what they have done, and will support the authoritarian regime that
follows, because they are already involved. …
…Joe Biden is not a perfect candidate, but he … supports
democracy:
Well if Biden wins all the states (including Michigan and PA) which the NYT classifies as Biden leaning he will win 290 vs 248 even if Trump wins a who bunch of toss up states. If Trump also wins Michigan, Biden wins 274 to 264; If Trump wins PA but not Michigan, Biden wins 270 t0 268. So if one believes the polls, Biden should win clearly.
ReplyDeleteHowever as I pointed out in a previous post both Michigan and PA have registered substantially more new Republicans than Democrats who are likely not included in poll estimates of likely voters. So it could be close in both states which could lead to a contested election as described in this article.
So the election could well challenge our democracy.
Anyway for my part in democracy, my request for an absentee ballot was received on October 5th at the Board of Elections. The ballot was sent out on October 8th; I received it in the mail on October 13th, I filled it out the evening of October 15th, dropped it off at the special drop box outside the county office building on October 16th, it was processed and certified for inclusion in the count on October 17th.
Another important factor is whether or not the Democrats win the Senate. They appear to have an eighty percent chance of winning control of the Senate. If both the House and Senate are controlled by Democrats, Trump may not want to be president. (On the other hand he might like the sheer joy of vetoing everything the Democrats pass). Firm control of the House and Senate by the Democrats might intimidate the Supreme Court from siding with Trump as part of a contested election
ReplyDeleteIt has been a banner year for books about the rise of Adolf Hitler. As an experiment, go to Amazon, enter, say, "The Unfathomable Ascent," and look at all the other recent books "customers who bought this item also bought." Not by accident has Margaret Atwood become a celebrity author rather than just an enthusiasm of serious readers. My branch library does not have four (4!!) copies of John Bolton's 500-page tell-all because its clientele is all former ambassadors. (The clientele is Century Village, actually.) Nor am I surprised to see that Anne Applebaum's book (we discussed her article earlier) has at last risen to the top of my pile.
ReplyDeleteWhat Snyder is talking about is not exactly a secret to anyone who is paying attention. What he has done that is new is find an explanation for what seems in explicable from a campaign strategy standpoint -- The Don doubling down on his unfathomable diminishing base rather than shoring up demographics that are crumbling away. I mean, here he is a week ago, appealing to the disappearing suburban women who voted for him:
“So I ask you to do me a favor. Suburban women, will you please like me? I saved your damn neighborhood, OK?"
I mean, that has to be coming from someone who is planning to win without their votes. Hitler never hit 40 percent in a free election either. Mark Shields shakes his head, but Bob Barr knows what up. Actually, next up is the only woman on federal Death Row who will be the first woman killed by the feds in 70 years. Kill them while you can, Bob, because soon you will need your agents and Mitch's justices to defend the president.
The first line of defense against a coup would be the first branch of government, Congress. For that to function, there would have to be coordination between the House speaker and the Sen... Oh, forget it.
I am reading that over 22 million Americans have already voted. That is at least a tenfold increase over those who voted early in the last election cycle. Of course a lot of them were absentee ballots, but also many who voted early in person. Some stood in long lines in order to do so. The American people are aware that this isn't an ordinary election.
ReplyDeleteAmong things I have read that Trump has said which are pretty odd (I know, he's said a lot that's pretty odd), he said that he may leave the country if he loses. Which is fine with me, don't let the door hit you in the back on the way out. Go to Elba or someplace. If he loses (please, God!) as a nation we have to put all of our energy into recovery, and not waste any more of it on his sorry self.
I am absolutely appalled at the vitriol he has continued to hail on Michigan's Governor Whitmer. This isn't the ranting of a sane person. Those who are voting for him because of babies and butterflies and the American Way need to be concerned for their own mental acuity.
Here is a link to Trump's remarks about leaving the country: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/16/trump-jokes-he-might-leave-country-if-he-loses-joe-biden/3688173001/
ReplyDeleteAnd here is what his daughter in law, Lara Trump said about his remarks about Gretchen Whitmer: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/18/lara-trump-attack-whitmer-430060
Apparently he was just joshin' and having fun. Alrighty then.
When people tell you who they are, you need to believe them.
I tend not to like amped up feminist slogans like, "Men are afraid that women will laugh at them; women are afraid that men will kill them." But that old adage did occur to me as the Whitmer kidnapping story has unfolded.
DeleteGov. DeWine in Ohio has implemented pandemic measures similar to Whitmer's, and the plot to overthrow at was hatched in Dublin, Ohio. But the focus of the plot was against a woman. And that isn't a coincidence.
For awhile the anger in Ohio was targeted on DeWine's Director of Health who was a women. There were threats against her and her family. They showed up around her house, she had to have State Police protection. She wisely resigned. DeWine has had trouble filling the position.
DeleteA state representative has filed a "citizen's arrest" complaint against DeWine and says that he should be impeached. The Republican House complaints about DeWine have been a little more muted since the Speaker had to resign his speakership because he was indicted by the Feds for bribery. However he has not been forced to resign his house seat.
Jack, as I recall, some of the protesters who showed up at Dr. Acton’s house were armed. And there were “Christians”:there with anti-Semitic signs also, as I recall. Very ugly stuff.
Delete"She wisely resigned"??? That means those effers won.
Delete""She wisely resigned"??? That means those effers won."
DeleteI had the same thought (albeit not quite as colorfully expressed :-)).
Our PA head of health services is Jewish AND a transwoman. We cover all the bases here. Hasn't resigned yet.
DeleteMichigan's governor, AG, and sec of state are all women, all Democrats. I would be very surprised if there aren't plots brewing against all of them.
DeleteI think it was very wise for her to resign; I would have done so in her place. She actually accomplished a great deal for the State of Ohio, and was admired by many people.
DeleteHowever she was not an elected official who choose to get into the unusual position of being the person who signs off on public health orders in a pandemic. Although DeWine made it very clear that everything she ordered was ultimately his responsibility and told people to come after him not her.
I spent most of my professional life in senior staff positions at the county level of the public mental health system. Like Amy I have been the chief public architect of plans that had major impacts on our county systems. I have taken great professional risks at times, knowing my CEO could blame it all on me if he needed to save his skin. So I have a pretty good sense of when it is worthwhile to take risks, and also when it is time to get out of the limelight. (Actually if people take your advice, it is always good to stay out of the limelight and let everyone else take credit. I was responsible for a lot of things that I did not get credit for).
She got out after the threat of a meltdown of the hospital system had been handled, and right before the reopening began. I suspect that she would not have reopened as quickly as DeWine did and was worried about the consequences although she said nothing to indicate this. When a CEO takes my advice totally, I am willing to take risks. When he thinks he can do better, its time to politely step aside without making any waves for him and let him sink or swim on his own.
Without her, DeWine has had to take much more heat than he would have had she been there. But that is how it should be. He has done a good job of explaining the data and the situation around the state with the help of a lot of people around the state who are not his subordinates. That has actually given him more backing than was available from just his own senior staff. Good choice Amy.
Hi - I've blogged here previously that I don't find the Trump-refuses-the-election-results-and-then-what theory to be credible. So I guess folks already know where I stand.
ReplyDeletehttps://newgathering.blogspot.com/2020/08/why-trump-will-go-quietly-in-january.html
FWIW, I dislike rhetoric, from either side, which begins with the premise, "These are not normal times." If for no other reason, then because that premise often is the pretext for someone to act illegally or even to seize power illicitly. For example: 'If these were normal times, it would be wrong to loot businesses and assault policemen, but these are not normal times.'
Ross Douthat recently shared his take on the putative Dictator-For-Life Trump. I agree with him. Headline: "There Will Be No Trump Coup". Douthat's analysis:
"[Trump] lacks popularity and political skill, unlike most of the global strongmen who are supposed to be his peers. He lacks power over the media: Outside of Fox’s prime time, he faces an unremittingly hostile press whose major outlets have thrived throughout his presidency. He is plainly despised by his own military leadership, and notwithstanding his courtship of Mark Zuckerberg, Silicon Valley is more likely to censor him than to support him in a constitutional crisis.
"His own Supreme Court appointees have already ruled against him; his attempts to turn his voter-fraud hype into litigation have been repeatedly defeated in the courts; he has been constantly at war with his own C.I.A. and F.B.I. And there is no mass movement behind him: The threat of far-right violence is certainly real, but America’s streets belong to the anti-Trump left.
"So if you judge an authoritarian by institutional influence, Trump falls absurdly short. And the same goes for judging his power grabs. Yes, he has successfully violated post-Watergate norms in the service of self-protection and his pocketbook. But pre-Watergate presidents were not autocrats, and in terms of seizing power over policy he has been less imperial than either George W. Bush or Barack Obama.
"There is still no Trumpian equivalent of Bush’s antiterror and enhanced-interrogation innovations or Obama’s immigration gambit and unconstitutional Libyan war. Trump’s worst human-rights violation, the separation of migrants from their children, was withdrawn under public outcry. His biggest defiance of Congress involved some money for a still-unfinished border wall. And when the coronavirus handed him a once-in-a-century excuse to seize new powers, he retreated to a cranky libertarianism instead."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/10/opinion/sunday/trump-election-authoritarianism.html
I guess we'd all need to agree on what constitutes "normal times". But from where I sit, the only thing making this election abnormal is the pandemic - a factor which Trump has demonstrated decisively he is unable to control.
I happen to live in a very blue state, so my presidential vote literally doesn't matter -a circumstance I intend to exploit by indulging in the luxury of writing in someone else's name, so I don't have to face the personal qualms of voting for either major party candidate. Tom, Stanley, Jean, Jack and possibly Anne don't have that luxury; they all live in states which are paths to victory for one candidate or the other, so their votes matter. (Katherine, I am guessing that Nebraska isn't likely to go for Biden no matter what. Jim M and Margaret, I don't think you have to worry, either :-)).
So I urge all of us to do what we would, or should, do in normal times: vote. The American system of elections and the Constitution will handle the rest.
I hope you're right, Jim! Actually Douthat's analysis is a bit reassuring. I still think Trump is nutty enough to try something stupid, but hopefully there are enough people around him who won't let him.
DeleteAbout Nebraska, our red has a tinge of purple. It is true that it hasn't gone blue for president since 1964. But the 2nd district ( there are 3 districts) voted for Obama in 2008. I like it that it is one of two states (the other one is Maine) that aren't winner take all for electoral votes.
As of Oct 14 200,000 Nebraskans had voted early.
Let Boy Ross sing you lullabyes, Jim. I have never been much of a believer in human decency.
DeleteI'm living in a dinky town in Michigan where the local yokels are dressing up in camo and "patrolling" the street in their golf carts.
I'm living where they plan to show up at polling places with their guns because Sec of State Jocelyn Benson told them it was unlawful within 100 feet of the voting places.
I'm living where the governor was threatened with a very real plot to kidnap and execute her.
I'm living where Ted Nugent is rallying "hunters" and "sportsmen" to come to the aid of the "best President of our lifetime."
I look around and see a lot of wingding John Browns who are angry and deep into conspiracies who seem anxious to touch off a civil war. Trump is their figurehead, but that anger and screwed up thinking is not going away anytime soon, even if Trump is defeated.
Jean, I'm sorry to hear there is so much turmoil in your area; I'm sure it's very stressful. Especially that part about the threats to your governor.
DeleteOne of the things I like about Nebraska is that we're boring.
Here is a link to the Douthat article which doesn't seem to be behind a paywall.
DeleteNYT is stingy with their freebies. I suppose they would say that I'm stingy with my money.
Yes, it is a very difficult time. The proliferation of Trump and Confederate flags hanging in front of homes of otherwise friendly neighbors is concerning. We took a walk one evening, and one family was having a huge party around their fire pit. At another house they were drinking and talking about how people "talking Mexican" in the workplace should be sent back to Mexico. At another they were sitting with guns across their laps while the kids played in the leaves. We used to enjoy walks after dark with the space binoculars, but given the guns and drinking, we've curtailed our activies. Everybody has "we back the badge" signs out, so the cops let it all go.
DeleteJean, it seems the more rural, the more Trumpistas there are. Here in PA as well. I just visited Shenandoah Park and the neighboring area of Virginia. Lots of Trump signs but a surprising number of Biden signs. The rural Trumpistas will hopefully be more than cancelled out by the city folk. It's a shame, because rurals seem to have more common sense about a lot of things that city folk don't but maybe a little too much hubris. Luckily, I voted already by mail. The "luckily" is for anyone doing bullying around the polls, not for me. I am not looking for trouble but I am ready and willing to deal with anyone who wants to eff with my voting.
DeleteStanley, I am telling myself daily, hourly, and sometimes minute-by-minute not to be part of the problem. It takes all the fortitude and prayer I can muster.
DeleteThis part of Florida is not Jean's country, but I can imagine places that are. A couple of counties that used to be yellow-dog Democrat are so Trump that I hear militia wannabes come down from Georgia to admire them.
DeleteSome pastors here, on the basis of what they are hearing, contacted the elections supervisor and ended up with a meeting attended by the sheriff, who almost always appears by deputy. The sheriff and supervisor had been hearing things to, and they explained their defensive plans. We had a robocall from the supervisor assuring us it will be safe to vote early or on election day or by mail and not to worry about it. We never heard that from a supervisor before.
I never find Young Douthat convincing, even on the rare occasions I agree in general.
And, besides Jim, these have not been normal times since the President of the United States kissed the rear end of the Russian dictator in Helsinki.
DeleteJean - I truly am sorry that you are beset by gun nuts and wackos. I am sure it's frightening. I wouldn't enjoy it for a moment. But those mopes could never overthrow the Constitutional order in a bazillion years.
DeleteI don't think I underestimate Trump. His narcissism is such an advanced case that he can't bring himself to oppose anyone who says nice things about him - presumably including the gun-wavers in Jean's neck of the woods, as well as Putin, Kim, Erdogan et al. There is no larger principle to which he will subordinate his self-regard. If he was a more effective president, he might be more of a threat than he is. In that sense, we're all benefitting from his incompetence. Thank you, God.
It's really less frightening than enraging. I'm just an old lady who likes to gimp around after dark looking at Mars and Pleiades, but there are too many armed people sitting around outdoors consuming God knows how much beer who would think I was BLM creeping around out to invade their white-ass domain. One of the neighbors said even hollered at me, "This isn't a good time to take a walk." I pointed out that I helped pay for the public thoroughfares. But in more, um, colorful terms. Ugh. I'd like to whack them all with my cane. OK, enough out of me.
DeleteWe need to take the "Trump is a threat to our democracy" issue seriously actually more seriously than the abortion or climate change issues as political rather than cultural issues.
ReplyDeleteYesterdays Gospel about taxes reminded me that politics is (and should be) mostly about economic issues, who shall pay taxes, how much etc.
Unfortunately we have made it a place for cultural (religious) warfare about how people should live their lives, i.e. imposing our values on others rather than persuading them. Many people on both the right and the left think they are being very moral by engaging in such cultural warfare when in fact such cultural warfare is really immoral. That has brought too many people to the brink of not respecting the political system.
Of course the billionaires including Trump are very glad that all of this unrest about social issues is distracting us from the real issue which is revising the tax code to make it more progressive.
Preserving out democratic system has to be the top priority in our political decision making, and Trump has clearly shown that he is not bound by a lot of the political wisdom that has helped preserve our system. And the Republican party has clearly shown that it is unwilling to censure him.
Jack, I think that is very true about cultural warfare having brought many peple to the brink of not respecting the political system.
DeleteThat wasn't a throwaway line when I said above that the first line of defense against a coup should be Congress. Off their record, I am afraid of whose side the senators would be on.
DeleteI think Jack is right. Even though Joe Biden says it, too, there is a single, overriding issue that tops all others in this election. The power of magical thinking and plot-counterplot has to be curbed this time or we will become, at best, Poland or Hungary.
"magical thinking and plot-counterplot" Amen to that! The Repubs have unleashed a lot of crazy on the nation with Trumpism, and they don't want to take any responsibility for it. Even our friend Jim, a scholar and a gentleman, doesn't want to hear that "these are not normal times." The fact that he's writing in a candidate for president would indicate that these are not normal times.
DeleteI have to admit surprise that Jim thinks this is a "normal" election. There is nothing "normal" about it. That's the reason it is so very important.
ReplyDeleteOur country has not been this divided since the Civil War, according to the historians and social scientists, If he is re-elected, expect the country to either come apart in some new version of the civil war, or to become another Turkey, Russia, Belarus, or Hungary - democracies in name only with fraudulent elections every few years.
Many analysts concur with Snyder re his fears that America become a genuine tin-pot authoritarian regime if trump is enabled to stay in office even if he loses the election.
I tend to believe (hope) that there are still at least a few members of the administration and GOP who have enough strength of spine and integrity to tell him - probably behind the scenes to help him save face - that he needs to go - gracefully, even if it's just an act. Who knows, maybe there will be a deal where if he ever does get convicted for some of the crimes he has committed, whoever is president will give him a pardon so that he won't have jail time. Somehow those behind the lines need to find a way to save our country if trump wants to bring it down.
Douthat does not convince, but he seldom does.
David Brooks is also a conservative, and not given to hyperbole or hysteria. Even he thinks that violence incited by trump is not impossible, especially if trump is desperately trying to stay in the WH. If someone as calm and moderate as Brooks is concerned, so am I.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/03/opinion/trump-election-2020.html