Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study
Predicting births and therefore the demographic structure of a society is very difficult, but it is important since often things which we think of as cultural are really about birth rate.
For example here in the USA evangelical Protestants in recent years have a reputation for growing by converting people. But Andrew Greeley many years ago showed that most of the relative growth of Evangelical Protestants in comparison to Catholics and mainline Protestants was do the slightly higher birth rates of Evangelicals. It all came down to mainline Protestants adopting birth control earlier and more often than Catholics who adopted it earlier and more often than Evangelicals.
These researchers put their better predictor of fertility along with mortality, and migration trends to estimate what the working populations (the people who actually produce GRP, not the billionaires who claim as much of it as they can).
Green indicates countries that move up in rank, yellow those that fall. Remember all this is relative so when some countries such as India, Turkey, Indonesia, Nigeria and the Philippines rise others much go down at least a notch or two. They probably will not actually fall in GRP but will have the psychological impact of seeing themselves overtaken by other countries.
Rank by
Size of GDP
|
2017
|
2030
|
2050
|
2100
|
1
|
USA
|
USA
|
China
|
USA
|
2
|
China
|
China
|
USA
|
China
|
3
|
Japan
|
Japan
|
India +1
|
India
|
4
|
Germany
|
India +3
|
Japan
|
Japan
|
5
|
France
|
Germany
|
Germany
|
Germany
|
6
|
UK
|
UK
|
UK
|
France
|
7
|
India
|
France -2
|
France
|
UK -1
|
8
|
Brazil
|
Brazil
|
Brazil
|
Australia +3
|
9
|
Italy
|
Italy
|
Turkey +3
|
Nigeria +8
|
10
|
Russia
|
Canada +1
|
Canada
|
Canada
|
11
|
Canada
|
Russia -1
|
Australia +1
|
Turkey -2
|
12
|
Australia
|
Australia
|
Indonesia +2
|
Indonesia
|
13
|
Spain
|
Turkey +5
|
Russian -2
|
Brazil -5
|
14
|
South Korea
|
Indonesia +2
|
Mexico +2
|
Russia -1
|
15
|
Mexico
|
South Korea
|
South Korea -1
|
Mexico -1
|
16
|
Indonesia
|
Mexico -1
|
Italy -5
|
Israel +20
|
17
|
Turkey
|
Spain -4
|
Nigeria +4
|
Sweden
|
18
|
Netherland
|
Netherlands
|
Spain -1
|
Philippines +6
|
19
|
Saudi Arabia
|
Saudi Arabia
|
Netherland -1
|
Netherlands
|
20
|
Switzerland
|
Switzerland
|
Saudi Arabia
|
South Korea -5
|
21
|
Nigeria +7
|
Sweden
|
||
22
|
Sweden
|
Switzerland -2
|
||
23
|
Sweden
|
|||
24
|
Philippines +4
|
|||
25
|
Italy -9
|
|||
26
|
Switzerland -2
|
|||
28
|
Nigeria
|
Spain -10
|
||
32
|
Saudi Arabia -12
|
|||
35
|
Philippines
|
Israel
|
My commentary after the break.
While the Chinese will overtake the USA economy in GDP, eventually the continued decline of population in China will allow the USA to regain the top place. This is all contingent upon the USA continuing to allow immigration as in the past.
India will go from 7th place to 4th place in 2020 and 3rd place in 2050
Japan, Germany, France and the UK will all slip a notice to accommodate India. France slips below the UK in 2030 but returns above it in 2100.
Brazil retains eighth place in 2030, 2050 but slips to 13th place in 2100
Italy maintains ninth place in 2030 but slips to 16th place in 2050 and 25th place in 2100.
Spain slips from 13th place to 17th place in 2030 , 18th place in 2050 and 28th place in 2100.
This is interesting since both Italy and Spain are part of the historic Catholic area of the World Values Map
Russia falls from 10th place to 11th place in 2030 13th place in 2050 and 14th place 2100 but most of this is probably due to other countries moving up.
Canada moves from 11th place to 10 place in 2030 which is maintains even though India and Turkey will move above it.
Australia maintains its 12th place through 2030 but goes to 11th place in 2050 and 8th place in 2100.
This is interesting since both Canada and Australia are part of the English speaking area of the World Values Map
South Korea slips from 14th to 15th position in 2030 which it maintains through 2050, then slips to the 20th position in 2100
Mexico first slips from 15th to 16th place in 2030 then goes up to 14th place in 2050 before falling back to 15th in 2100.
Indonesia rises from 16th place to 14th place in 2030 to 12th place in 2050 which it maintains through 2100
Turkey rises from 17th to 13th place in 2030 to 9th place in 2050 before falling to 11th place in 2100.
The Netherlands stays in 18th place through 2030 before falling to 19th place in 2050 and 2100.
Saudi Arabia keeps 19th place in 2030 before falling to 20th place in 2050 and 32nd place in 2100.
Switzerland keeps 20th place in 2030 before fall to 22nd place in 2050 and 26th place in 2100.
Sweden goes from 22nd to 23rd place in 2030 but recovers to 21st place in 2050 and 17th place in 2100.
Nigeria goes from 28th place to 21st place in 2030 then to 17th place in 2050 and 9th place in 2100.
The Philippines goes from 35th in 2030 to 24th in 2050 to 18th in 2100.
Israel goes from 35th in 2050 to 16th in 2100.
THIS DOES NOT FIGURE INTO ACCOUNT THE PRESENT OR FUTURE PANDEMICS.
The death of elderly in some countries (e.g. Japan, China) could enable people to have more children since they don't have to take care of parents.
Other future pandemics could eliminate people during their working and childbearing years.
THIS DOES NOT FIGURE INTO ACCOUNT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
China politicized reproduction through its one child policy which was a great disaster. Some have claimed China would be much better off if they had not intervened. If the USA becomes anti-immigrant it could end up being not as great GDP wise.,
Hard to see how the pandemic wouldn't have an effect. Some were predicting that in the early days of the lockdown there would be a bunch of couples home with nothing much to do, so there might be a baby boomlet from that. But as time wears on, it seems likely there would be a depressing effect on births. People are worried about how they are going to make ends meet. They would be worried about being pregnant while the virus is still very much going around.
ReplyDeleteAnd the birth experience during the pandemic; about the best one could say about it is that they are going to get you out of the hospital as soon as possible, and you won't have to put up with annoying family members visiting you. But the downside is that helpful family members are not going to be as available to help you at home, because of fears they might be contagious without symptoms. For a first time mom, being on your own, even with a supportive spouse, would be daunting.
In addition to pandemics, another variable to consider is climate change. I believe it's predicted to not affect all economic players equally.
ReplyDeleteI suppose that, an underlying assumption of this predictive analysis, is more people = more workers = more productivity = greater wealth and power. To be sure, China's and India's rise are powerful examples that this traditional view still is valid. There are contrarian views: e.g. that the US has maintained its top spot despite the fact that a goodly percentage of working-age adults aren't especially productive and in fact seem more or less extraneous to the country's aggregated prosperity. The threat of robotization, as well as the continuing threat of exporting good jobs, would seem to have the potential to exacerbate this troubling situation.
ReplyDeleteI've mentioned a few times that my employer is multinational. If the US or the UK sink and China or India rise, my company will not suffer, because it does business in all these geographies. The same is true for many other large enterprises. Much financial capital these days isn't constrained by national borders. Human capital still is constrained, so as these countries rise and sink relative to one another, there will be good jobs lost - and good jobs gained elsewhere. The investors probably will do better than the workers.
I have to agree with Jim about climate change. It is happening now, so it can't be stopped, and the coronavirus and accompanying economic collapses will get in the way of doing anything to even slow it. So it is likely to increasingly gain influence on development vis-a-vis demographics.
ReplyDeleteOff past history, India and Japan will suffer more than the USA or China, for what that's worth.
The USA has been coasting for years; any look at "our" Nobel laureates shows a bunch of unpronounceable or unspellable foreign names who came here for their education and stayed to advance the sciences. We don't want them anymore, but I bet it'll be a long time before you see a Smith or a Jones on the Nobel lists.
You and I and the rest of us know that "unpronounceable names" is the history and the glory of US immigration (not least the Catholic immigrants) over the centuries which has enriched our country and has driven so much of our prosperity. You're right that the idjit in the White House and his small base of yahoos don't want them, but the rest of us are just fine with welcoming neighbors whose names we'll mangle.
DeleteOne of India's major business hub cities, Chennai (that's Madras to all you British colonial types) is on the coast and is prone to flooding in recent years. I'd be pretty surprised to learn that climate change doesn't have something to do with that. It makes Chennai somewhat of a less desirable destination for global investment.
Delete