I hope that this link is not behind a pay wall since the Times has free Corona Virus coverage.
Government Orders Alone Didn’t Close the Economy.
They Probably Can’t Reopen It
Data shows there was a drop in spending and working
even before any official mandates to stay at home.
In the weeks before states around the country issued lockdown orders this spring, Americans were already hunkering down. They were spending less, traveling less, dining out less. Small businesses were already cutting employment. Some were even closing shop.
People were behaving this way — effectively winding down the economy — before the government told them to. And that pattern, apparent in a range of data looking back over the past two months, suggests in the weeks ahead that official pronouncements will have limited power to open the economy back up.
Even in states that imposed stay-at-home orders or closed nonessential businesses relatively early, households and businesses had begun to shift their behavior about 10 days before those orders. In states that closed later, that shift had come about 20 days earlier.
Even states that never put in a statewide stay-at-home order, like Iowa, South Dakota and Utah, saw significant drops in consumer spending and employment, as well as in the share of small businesses open.
This basic pattern is visible in other corners of the economy: Well before shutdown orders, restaurant reservations were plummeting. Electricity usage, which falls when office buildings and factories empty out, was dropping, too. Public transit in many cities was in free fall. So was the number of air travel passengers passing through T.S.A. checkpoints.
Such data, combined with opinion polling today, suggests that Americans who were turning off the economy on their own may not readily reopen it soon — even if officials say it’s OK to.
The opinion data show that much less partisanship about reopening. Even though Republican are more likely to be for reopening, vast majorities of both groups say they would not ride public transit, attend sporting events or go on a flight. Majorities of both say they wouldn’t send their children back to school.
Even significant shares of Americans — 30 percent to 40 percent — who say they oppose business closures and stay-at-home orders still report that they personally would not return to shopping malls, restaurants or church just yet. That means that many people who object on principle to government mandates will still be among those staying home once those mandates are lifted.
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ReplyDeleteIf I am a data point, as desperately as I need a haircut, I would not risk the barbershop even if the guv allowed it to open prematurely. (As he is getting a lot of pressure to do.) From Monday to Thursday, my county (1.5 million souls) acquired 287 new cases, and the death count rose from 199 to 231.
ReplyDeleteThe light will dawn, I think, when the premature school openings are announced, and no teachers show up, which will be fine because neither will any students show up.
(Fixed some typos)
The media are way overplaying the "demand" for reopening. Twenty-five nitwits here got tons more attention than the 31 people who died since the nitwits started showing off.
Most people continue to distance, and some of us who are old and sick will continue to do so after various states say it's safe.
ReplyDeleteSadly, masking or unmasking is becoming a political statement rather than a safety precaution. The unmasked far right-wing see the masks as a sign that the sheep are helping the Deep State practice mind control. Those of us with masks are increasingly getting hassled.
Ditto with haircuts, which Raber's barber (now former barber) is exploiting: https://www.mlive.com/news/flint/2020/05/supporters-rally-around-owosso-barber-who-refuses-to-close-shop.html
We had a pair of old Wahl clippers Raber was using to make do, and I finally sheared my own hair down to an inch all over. It was quite freeing! I don't need no stinking stylist!
I don't wear a mask. I wear a respirator with P100 filters which makes me ready for even a mustard gas attack. Anyone who wants to hassle me does so at their own risk. I am weathering this lockdown ok but I am NOT in a good mood and am pretty much on hairtrigger. My first stop in the supermarket is the canned goods. Any rectal aperture who decides to get in my face just might get a can of refried beans slammed into his.
DeleteJean,
DeleteAs an undergraduate during the sixties, I desired to wear my hair longer. However the barbers were very uncooperative; they always cut it too short even though that meant I went to the barbershop less often.
At that time we were reading Gandhi's autobiography in our Honors Reading Program. I discovered he had learned to cut his own hair. I have not been to a barber since then.
Buzzing your head is interesting. Lots of little bits that want to stand up and have to be snipped with scissors. Getting around the ears is tricky. Neckline takes a little more artistry than I have, but assume my skills will improve.
DeleteWell, I'm thinking about cutting my own hair. Not going to go to extremes, I usually wear it mid neck length. But when it gets to the shoulders, like it is now, it defaults to 1980s look "big hair". It's curly, so doesn't need much encouraging to do that. Also makes me wonder a little bit, is it a catcher's mitt for germs? Maybe I should dig a head scarf out of a drawer for when I go to the store. Gaah, the babushka look. Or maybe I still have one of those chiffon scarves I used to wear in high school to protect the bouffant look with a whole can of Aqua-Net sprayed on.
Delete“I feel like I’m in prison,” said Muskegon resident Renea Knight, 48.“
DeleteSo imprisoned she was able to get from Muskegon to Owosso, a distance of 133 miles, or a two-hour drive, according to Google. Alternative geography?
My hair's pretty bad. On the other hand, I have very few places to go where people will see it. On the occasions when I have to be in a recorded mass, I apply "product" to keep it tame. Still, it is frustrating every time I look in the mirror. Haven't quite reached the DIY point. I have glanced around, a very little bit, at stores for the haircut-at-home electric clippers, but they seem to be a hot retail commodity these days.
DeleteKatherine, FYI - when I was in middle school in the 1970s, my hair sort of naturally 'fro'd - it just grew straight out rather than letting gravity take hold. If y'all remember a short-lived television drama called Room 222, there was a white character, I think by the name of Mike, who had that white-guy afro look.
My hair still kinda/sorta does that , especially on top, but there is so much less of it now, it's not really a good look :-).
When I was a child my Lithuanian grandmother had her hair tied up in a hair bun that covered her head like a hat. I just thought of her as having thick hair.
DeleteWhen I was staying with my grandparents on the farm I was very shocked to find out that my grandmother's hair actually went down blow her waist.
Tom don`t get me started on those people at Manke's barbershop. Small number of right wingers with no brains and too much time on their hands. Sign at one of the Lansing protests: My rights do not end where yours begin. Might as well change the Golden Rule to: Do it unto others before the do it unto you.
DeleteEven in still-largely-open Sweden, much vaunted by those who are ready for the lockdown to end, people are being cautious. From a Wall Street Journal article (h/t Jim Geraghty in National Review):
ReplyDelete"Sweden’s decision not to impose a mandatory national lockdown has drawn global attention from policy makers eager to judge the strategy’s impact on public health and the economy. But it turns out the situation here is not as different as it might first appear.
"Even without legal prohibitions, many Swedes are voluntarily following authorities’ social-distancing recommendations and limiting travel, pushing down domestic consumption. And the country can’t insulate itself from lockdowns among its trading partners. Exports are falling.
"The result: Sweden’s economy is contracting, but not by as much as some others in Europe. Meanwhile, it is recording deaths per capita from the virus that are considerably higher than in neighboring countries — though below levels seen in France, Italy and the U.K.
"Shops, restaurants and even nightclubs have been allowed to stay open in Sweden. There are no curbs on the manufacturing and services industries. But that doesn’t mean life is normal here.
"Despite recent warm weather, streets are quieter and business is slower because many Swedes, like Ms. Sandblom, take government guidelines seriously and even go beyond them to avoid catching the highly contagious pathogen.
"All of that is contributing to what Sweden’s government estimates will be a 6 percent contraction in domestic consumption this year. Combined with a forecast 10 percent drop in exports, Swedish authorities predict, the result will be a 7 percent decline in overall 2020 economic output."
The Swedes have advised the old to stay home. I certainly don't expect everyone to stay home just to protect us high-risk people, but death rate in Sweden is 10 times what it is in Denmark and Norway, and Denmark has petty much re-opened because quarantines have worked.
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