The first is a comparison of countries experiencing the infection:
Virtually every row and column is of interest, at least to me. Thus, while the United States has the most overall deaths by a significant margin, its deaths per million of population is not in the top 5 (it ranks #6 of the 10 countries shown - if you take China's statistics at face value). The US also leads, by a wide margin among the 10 countries shown, in the number of tests administered. And its fatality rate for confirmed cases is among the lowest shown. On the whole, this paints a different picture of how the US is doing than what my consumption of daily news reports had led me to expect. I'm glad it hasn't been as bad (so far) as it could have been for the US. Let's give some credit to the governments, at all levels and led by both parties, for where we stand today. Certainly, they've made mistakes, but let's hope they've learned from them.
The fact in the chart above which surprised me most is that the hardest-hit country for deaths per million of population is Belgium. I have heard many mentions in the media of the virus's toll in Italy, Spain, France and the UK, but until now I had not heard Belgium named in any news reports. Among the perplexing items about Belgium: it shares borders with France, Germany and The Netherlands (as well as Luxembourg, which isn't included in this page of the chart), but Belgium's outcomes are much worse than these other countries'. Belgium contrasts especially with its neighbor Germany. It could be instructive to understand why Belgium is doing so much worse than its neighbors.
Here is the state-by-state scorecard from the same site:
Seeing the data this way helps illustrate how terrible the pandemic has been for the state of New York. Not only is it worst in virtually every "bad-news" category among the 10 states listed, it's also much worse than Belgium, Italy and all the other nations listed in the countries chart. And its neighbors New Jersey and Connecticut also are struggling (although its neighbor due south, Pennsylvania, seems to be doing relatively well). At the other end of the state spectrum is California, with significantly fewer deaths per million of population - less than every country on the countries chart except for China. My own state, Illinois, is somewhere in the middle of the pack, doing better than several of the other states listed. Again, this is not the expectation I had from consuming newscasts every day.
To be sure, these numbers and rankings could look significantly different a week from now. But I'm grateful for the perspective offered by these numbers, and even filled with some mild hope that it may not pan out as badly as we've feared.
The dashboard is interesting, but it has limitations. One is that not every country counts the same way. WHO could recommend a common way of counting, but if it failed to mandate it, The Don would call it incompetent, and if it mandated it, The Don would refuse to participate. But, for that matter, counting in his realm is on a state-by-state basis; Florida has tweaked its counting method at least three times that it admits to.
ReplyDeleteAnd somebody is going to have to figure out how to account for the (relatively) wildly differing fatality rates.
There is a definite bias to this site: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RealClearPolitics
DeleteOur Prez says that anything under 100,000 deaths would be a "win." I guess that's another way to bright-side this besides "it may not pan out as badly as we've feared."
ReplyDeleteDig deeper, Jim.
Disturbing info is coming out about lung damage in those who survive the disease. Only about half of those on ventilators survive, and they have a frighteningly high rate of brain damage.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-health-202/2020/04/07/the-health-202-at-least-of-covid-19-patients-on-ventilators-don-t-make-it/5e8b91bc88e0fa101a75bede/
A doctor on the NewsHour was backing off the presumption that having recovered from C19 would provide some immunity. She said no one really knows.
Add to that what is likely to be a very pricey C19 vaccine if/when one appears (even the plain ol' flu shot is $50 if you don't have insurance). People who have lost their health benefits and can't afford a C19 vaccine will weaken our "herd immunity," so expect resurgence among the urban poor.
This thing will take a long long time to "pan out" and the effects to be measured.
"Disturbing info is coming out about lung damage in those who survive the disease. Only about half of those on ventilators survive, and they have a frighteningly high rate of brain damage"
DeleteQuestion for armchair ethicists and moral theologians to kick around; is one morally obliged to accept being put on a ventilator to save one's life? This is assuming that a ventilator is available and not needed for someone else. The church teaches that we should seek to preserve life and health, and not deliberately do things to end or shorten it. But also that we are not obliged to accept interventions that are excessively burdensome. I can see where someone of my years, late sixties, might feel that living with lung damage and cognitive impairment as a result of treatment might be excessively burdensome.
I already have my no intubation/no resuscitation order written and taped on the fridge with my health issues and med list. The order is good only if I need treatment for C19 (not ready to give Raber carte blanche yet).
DeleteThe problem is that no one can predict what kind of shape you'll be in when you come off a vent. Length of time on the vent, age, and general health are factors. So is how much your organs were compromised by not enough O2 before intubation.
Intubation is not a picnic for the patient, mentally or physically. There is also a big financial burden in these invasive, intensive treatments.
I went through the ventilator decision nightmare with my mother. The bottom line is that whatever you do, you will never know if you did the right thing, and no priest can resolve it for you because he wasn't there. It will haunt you for the rest of your life.
Not putting my family through that.
I guess you just make the best decision you can and put it in the hands of God. Like you say no one can predict the outcome of being on a vent.
DeleteI hear of survival rates of 20% once one is on a ventilator. One NJ hospital released as many as 700 already but without requiring ventilation. But, once on a ventilator with COVID, the situation is severe to hopeless. Ordinarily, one is on a ventilator for at most a few days. With COVID, it can be three weeks. No thanks.
DeleteApparently, they are reporting successful testing of the antiviral remesdivir. This may be a gamechanger depending on if they can increase production. This could impact all stages of treatment.
DeleteYou techies would know. But I am waiting for the ventilator scandals vis a vis death rates. Cobbled together machines that don't work as planned. Staff that have little experience monitoring the machines and the patients. People put on ventilators who can't benefit from them. Etc. People are doing their best, I'm sure, but..... this is Trump's America..
DeleteMeditating on my own situation. If I come down with the corona virus, I'm pretty much committed to staying home. I'm healthy and I'm counting on my immune system to take care of things as well as any hospital would.
Another thing that I consider is that intubation causes the worst exposure of health providers to the virus. Sometimes they come to and start pulling out the tube, accompanied by coughing and spitting and vomiting. I think I might go with Margaret's approach if I get it. Maybe with televisiting for prescriptions.
DeleteI wrote up a new will and signed it but without witnesses. I will probably make a video in which I attest to it, read the pages one by one and show the signed pages one by one. Maybe I should also perform the proof of the Pythagorean Theorem to prove I'm of sound mind. Like Ted Kasinski.
So do they have tele-lawyers?
DeleteNot in PA for notarization. I contacted a lawyer and they said to just sign it for now.
DeleteIn Michigan, a holographic will is legal, no witnesses needed. Date and sign it.
DeleteAbout the nursing homes, I think one thing that would help is doing away with shared rooms. With single rooms it would be a lot easier to isolate sick people. Not to mention that it must be purgatory to share a room with someone not of your choice. The rooms are so small to begin with.
DeleteYeah, that's one reason I want to die before I become a trial to myself and others.
Deletehttps://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-today-leads-futures-rally-gilead-covid-treatment-tests-positive-boeing-disney-spike/
Delete"Gilead Sciences spiked to the top of the Nasdaq 100, up 10% after a report late Thursday indicated positive results from the company's remdesivir treatment of Covid-19 patients in Chicago"
TREATMENT, not vaccine.
Interesting article and chart, Jim.
ReplyDeleteWow, I didn't realize the fatality rate in NYC was over 7%.
As to whether a person has immunity to Covid 19, this test developed by Abbott Laboratories should give answers by measuring the antibody titer.
It appears that my link to the Abbott testing apparatus doesn't work. Try this: https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2020-04-15/abbott-launches-antibody-test-for-coronavirus-plans-to-deliver-20-million-tests-by-june
DeleteReal Clear Politics is one of my go-to sites for conservative commentary its willingness to publish some liberal counter-comment.
ReplyDeleteThat doesn't mean their data gathering and "dash boards" aren't reliable; these may be. But as we are finding out in NYC, whose dead of what disease is turning out to be more complicated than polling on who Biden should choose for VP. This morning's headlines report that some nursing homes are not reporting illnesses or deaths (NYT). And the Guardian is reporting that deaths in Wuhan have just been increased by 50 percent according, that is, their data has been corrected.
But, of course, I am curious about what Germany has done right....
"and" its willingness...
DeleteYeah, what is it about nursing homes? NBC tried to figure out their death rates, and about half the states said ?we dunno, not asking." Our governor is wondering what to do about that himself.
DeleteThe people who work in nursing homes have a tough job in depressing circumstances and are paid a little less than stable hands. But they must be good investments; they pop up everywhere. So where do they get off storing corpses and not reporting?
Hospitals and nursing homes are always very opaque about morbidity and mortality rates and causes. Bad for business.
DeleteHere is a C19 European round-up. I can only assume that Germany has done extensive testing to arrive at its infection rate figure. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/coronavirus-under-control-in-germany-as-some-countries-plan-to-relax-lockdowns
Germany began widespread contact tracing-testing as soon as they had their first case - someone who had been in China and returned to work at an automobile plant in Bavaria. This enabled them to keep track a whole lot better than many other countries (S. Korea, Taiwan etc did the same things). Germany has a slightly younger population than some other countries, such as Italy. Italy has the second biggest percentage of over 65s in the world, after Japan, Japan is now seeing a crisis developing also.
DeleteI think there may also be cultural differences. As one of my sons mentioned, in Italy they hug and kiss you when they first meet you. In Germany they are much more reserved (standoffish?) I suspect (haven't checked though) that more older Italians may live with the younger generations than is the case in many other countries, including Germany. In Italy before they realized what they were facing, they suspect a lot of younger family members who were out and about brought the virus home to the grandparents.
More and more evidence that many people get it but don't have symptoms. This may be especially true of the younger generations. The estimates for this have been around 40% (asymptomatic after infection), but may be higher. The Navy ship with corona has tested most of the sailors, almost 5000, with 600+ positive results. (including at least one death). Of the positives, more than 60% were asymptomatic. Most sailors on a carrier are quite young. And most who are infected do not have symptoms.
Perhaps we are closer to reaching herd immunity than the figures indicate. Since we have done so little testing, we really haven't a clue about how many cases there have been, since only people with a specific set of severe symptoms are tested.
The natives are getting restless...people having drive-by protests in Michigan, some stuff in Colorado too. It's the MAGA hatters who can't stand being told what to do, and think they know better than the experts. They want the governors to open things back up; they especially can't stand being told what to do by Democratic governors.
DeleteIt was predicted that if the social distancing was working we would see cases go down and the curve being smoothed. And then the danger would be that people would say it had all been exaggerated and it was time for business as usual. Which is happening.
Re: the natives getting restless: in the normal course of things, I have a certain amount of sympathy for those who say, "I'm the captain of my own life; I'm not going to be unduly restricted by the government."
DeleteBut in this situation, I think that approach reflects a fundamental misunderstanding:
If the only risk of defying the stay-at-home order is that *I* may get sick, then perhaps it's justifiable, or at least understandable, that I may be willing to risk my own health in order to live my life the way I want to do so. I could justify this approach by saying, "I, not the government, am the one who needs to assess the risks to me; if I am willing to take the risk, then the government shouldn't override that assessment."
The gigantic flaw in that line of reasoning is that it's not just that I may catch the virus from others; it's that I may also spread it to others. And unless I am a hardcore Randian, or am sociopathically callous toward others (and both of those types of people are to be found in the US), I can't justify putting others at risk to serve my self-interest.
Jim, I can sympathize especially with the ones who have lost their jobs. They truly do feel caught between a rock and a hard place, and don't have a lot of confidence in the government to do right by them. The ones who are still doing okay, and mainly have had to put up with inconveniences, I don't have so much sympathy for. I agree that taking risks which only affect oneself is different from risks that may impact other people.
DeleteKatherine the governments we have to have, or not have, confidence in to do the right thing are the ones led by governors in which legislation is done by state bodies.
DeleteThe federal government is distracted full time by the search for explanations of why it has only gotten in the way of governors: It's China's fault. It's Obama's fault. It was Obama's CDC's fault. It will be the governor's fault (that's why we dumped all the work on them). It is WHO's fault. It is the so-called scientists' fault. It will soon be Dr. Fauci's fault. So much fault there isn't enough hate to go around.
Have you seen the federal government take responsibility beyond claiming to have done a few things it hasn't? Meanwhile, the president and his son-in-law seem to have gotten $1.7 million in tax cuts to make up for their losses so the economy can come back.
Jack, are you still keeping track? I would be interested in knowing what your model is predicting for the upcoming weeks.
ReplyDeleteIt's pretty clear mandatory social distancing will be at an end April 30 here in Michigan. The Republicans in the term-limited Legislature are in the majority, and they are voting to curtail the governor's current 28-day emergency powers, which expire April 30, even though they voted for the extension.
ReplyDeleteThere is allegedly a "re-opening" plan in the works, but it sounds like no one can agree about what that will look like. Meantime, Trump is tweeting "LIBERATE MICHIGAN," and Dr. Phil says the stay-home order is causing massive mental health anguish. This passes for expert medical advice in the idiocracy.
After April 30, will people bother to follow what the right-wingers are calling "common-sense" precautions to keep themselves and others safe? Not if the dolts down at the Capitol this week were any indication.
Been nice knowing you all! None of you is mentioned in my will.
I guess it would be wrong of me to think it would be fitting if these Lansing protesters were all to catch the Coronavirus.
DeleteThe protesters are just dumbasses egged on by Trump. The real danger is the Republican Legislature that has the power to back the governor's measures or to come up with an alternative. Barring agreement, there will be no plan.
DeletePeople in my town are refusing to wear masks "in protest" over Gov. Gretchen's start-ups order. I don't hope they get sick, because then they'll hog a bed someone with an actual brain needs.
Sorry. Things are real bad here.
Trump lemmings are generally dumbasses.
DeleteJean, that legislature you are talking about.... what has it done about Flint's water?
DeleteWould be nice if they all wore MAGA hats to signal that they are members of the Corona Death Cult and to stay clear of them.
DeleteThis column was in the WaPo today. I found it in another paper without a paywall.
ReplyDeleteLet’s talk about sacrifice.
On Wednesday, folks in Maryland — like people in other states and cities across the nation — had to begin wearing face coverings in stores and on public transit to curb the spread of the coronavirus. And outside the rural farm and feed store where I buy our pets’ food, it got ugly.
“Sir, you can’t enter the store without a mask,” a worker stationed outside the entrance said to an older man forging ahead past the fruit sapling and tomato plant display with nothing to hide the scowl on his face. “Sir.”
The man jutted his chin out and pulled his shoulders back.
“This is America,” he spat. “You can’t tell me what I gotta wear.”
A second, larger store employee joined the first guy, silently, and the huffing boomer swatted at the air and returned to his truck.
Yes, this is America, sir.
And buying the stars-and-stripes yard art and truck decals and listening to the country music playing inside that Maryland store isn’t what defines being an American right now.
Clogging the state capital in Michigan, waving American, Trump and a few Confederate flags while chanting “Lock her up” in defiance of Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s stay-at-home order — as protesters are doing this week — isn’t living up to that ideal either.
Holding religious services and parties in defiance of social distancing is not American.
Right now? Sacrificing is American.
Wearing the mask, staying at home, innovating, pivoting, doing what you can to keep people safe and working is American.
The rest of the column
https://www.news-journal.com/opinion/dvorak-americans-are-being-asked-to-sacrifice-have-we-forgotten-how/article_3be25b60-8055-11ea-846d-eb6d473907c0.html
It's a good article. Unfortunately the last sentence, "It's time for the Trump administration and Congress to set an example" isn't going to happen. That's the difference between when we were fighting WWII and this crisis; then we actually had some responsible leadership. I think they don't understand the meaning of sacrifice; it's something for other people to do so they themselves don't have to be inconvenienced.
Delete"Huffing Boomer"? Really, when did we become the intractable geezers? Blaming Boomer is getting old fast.
DeleteYeah, I think invincible ignorance is not confined to any particular age group. Most of the insurrectionist wannabees making noise in the news photos lately appear a lot younger than Boomers.
Delete"I'm the captain of my own life; I'm not going to be unduly restricted by the government."
ReplyDeleteBut you are NOT the captain of my life. Your right to swing your hand stops at my nose. If your idiocy results in danger to those around you, willingly or not, then you need to be restrained. No rights are absolute, including the freedom to assemble.
https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/197/11/
Jacobson v. Massachusetts, 197 U.S. 11 (1905)
Argued December 6, 1904
Decided February 20, 1905
The liberty secured by the Constitution of the United States to every person within its jurisdiction does not import an absolute right in each person to be, at all times and in all circumstances, wholly freed from restraint. There are manifold restraints to which every person is necessarily subject for the common good. On any other basis, organized society could not exist with safety to its members. Society based on the rule that each one is a law unto himself would soon be confronted with disorder and anarchy. Real liberty for all could not exist under the operation of a principle which recognizes the right of each individual person to use his own, whether in respect of his person or his property, regardless of the injury that may be done to others.