In the last two days my predicted curve has been exceeded. Even if things go back to my curve, it is obvious that things are going to get worse very quickly. From this one gets a sense of how Italy became so bad so quickly.
The uptick in the last few days may have been due to more testing. The hope, of course, is that all the social distancing that has been put into place in the last few days will begin to slow this thing down.
| National | National | National | National | ||
| New | New | Total | Total | ||
| Actual | Predicted | Actual | Predicted | ||
| March | |||||
| TUE | 3 | ||||
| WED | 4 | 350 | |||
| THR | 5 | 50 | 50 | 400 | |
| FRI | 6 | 80 | 66 | 466 | |
| SAT | 7 | 90 | 86 | 552 | |
| SUN | 8 | 110 | 114 | 666 | |
| MON | 9 | 150 | 150 | 815 | |
| TUE | 10 | 200 | 197 | 1012 | |
| WED | 11 | 260 | 259 | 1269 | 1271 |
| THR | 12 | 400 | 340 | 1660 | 1611 |
| FRI | 13 | 440 | 447 | 2100 | 2058 |
| SAT | 14 | 659 | 588 | 2759 | 2646 |
| SUN | 15 | 843 | 773 | 3602 | 3419 |
| MON | 16 | 880 | 1017 | 4482 | 4435 |
| TUE | 17 | 1399 | 1337 | 5881 | 5772 |
| WED | 18 | 2436 | 1758 | 8317 | 7530 |
| THR | 19 | 4075 | 2312 | 12392 | 9842 |
| FRI | 20 | 5570 | 3040 | 17920 | 12882 |
| SAT | 21 | 3997 | 16879 | ||
| SUN | 22 | 5257 | 22136 | ||
| MON | 23 | 6912 | 29048 | ||
| TUE | 24 | 9090 | 38138 | ||
| WED | 25 | 11953 | 50091 | ||
| THR | 26 | 15718 | 65810 | ||
| FRI | 27 | 20670 | 86480 | ||
| SAT | 28 | 27181 | 113660 | ||
| SUN | 29 | 35743 | 149403 | ||
| MON | 30 | 47002 | 196405 | ||
| TUE | 31 | 61807 | 258212 |
I did something similar for Michigan stats. But, as you noted, we're looking at positive tests, which is not the same as cases. One of the CDC officials said that if you have 500 positive tests, as is the situation here today, that's actually where you were two weeks ago.
ReplyDeletePositive tests are much higher in metro areas. No surprise. That's where the big hospitals and more tests and drive-thru test facilities are. Those are also higher population density areas where closer contact might = more cases.
Friends in the U.P. say that there are no tests there, hence no reported cases, and that is feeding conspiracy theories of a government hoax.
Gun sales are brisk, and we had our first C19-related shooting. Many more to follow, as this drags on. Raber's shop is shutting today. A co-worker asked if I still wanted to sell my uncle's 1938 Winchester.
So...how are guns going to help them? Do they think it's like zombies wandering around and you have to shoot them with a silver bullet?
DeleteTests are still not readily available, and when they are available, some providers such as Quest have a backlog.
DeleteThe Ohio Department of Health is recommending that they be focused upon people in the hospital, emergency rooms, persons giving treatment. In that situation it is vital that everyone knows who has the virus.
As for majority of people who will experience symptoms at home, they simply have to ride it out unless they develop life threatening symptoms (e.g. breathing) and have to go to medical facility. It does really matter if they have the flu or the new virus.
Jean,
DeleteI also did the statistics for Ohio using the same curve as for the national data. It will also help me to evaluate whether or not Ohio's more aggressive stance is working.
I even have a model for Lake County. We now have two cases which came in right on schedule with the model.
Yes the curve is a delayed measure. Here in Lake County the real number of cases now is at least 10 times the figure reported, and perhaps as much as 100 times. E.g. Lake County 120,000 people at least 20 perhaps 200. I am sure that if we had 200 we would likely have more hospitalizations which would be reported. So it is probably less, more like in the 50 to 100 range. The figures say it was unlikely for me to encounter the virus this past week. But next week and the week after are a completely different story.
"It does really matter if they have the flu or the new virus." should have been it does NOT really matter if you are being treated at home which is what will happen for the vast majority of people.
DeleteGuns. The conspiracy theorists have some muddled idea that this is all part of the deep state's effort to control people, institute marshal law, destroy the capitalist economy, institute socialism, and take away guns.
DeleteC-hrist
O-ver
v-irises and
I-nfectious
D-iseases
Quarantines are not in the Bible.
This stuff has been reported in the Washington Post, which is why I am rationing my national news and trying to focus on local conditions.
My brother now thinks C19 is a hoax since he tested negative and he knows no one who has it. I have had to delete his Dr. Drew and FOX news flashes.
It's not the disease that scares me but the extra strength crazy. Washing your hands until they bleed won't get rid of that.
Jean, I feel your pain. I've got some relatives putting out that kind of b.s. on Facebook. I loved it, though, I've got a couple of nephews who are doctors. They kind of shut down the nonsense. These relatives will still listen to someone they know with an MD after their name.
DeleteI really had no idea my brother had gone that far around the bend. It's very deflating.
DeleteJean, even my Trump loving relatives are taking this seriously. Fox News addicts all.
DeleteMaybe your brother should read this story
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/politics/coronavirus-heaven-frilot-mark-frilot.html
I don't think it's something facts can fix. He was terrified, he feels angry that he got worked up and had to pay the doctor "for nothing," he lost two days' work at his small business, and he wants to lash out. He doesn't want to change anything about his already difficult life, so he's subscribing to the notion that this is all media-driven hysteria. Reality is too much for some people.
DeleteHello to everyone. News from Versailles, France
ReplyDeleteTwo weeks ago: "Here we are having a meeting at work. Does anyone here know anyone who has been sick with the coronavirus? No, no one. No one even knows someone who knows someone who is sick! So, it can't be that serious."
Now: Confined at home. I personally know (not well, but at an acquaintance level) maybe a dozen people who are or have been sick with the coronavirus. One is in the hospital ICU and the situation is critical. Another was also in the hospital ICU but I heard just now that he is out and in recovery mode. I vaguely know one person whose mother died of the coronavirus, and another one whose husband died of it. Of my four PhD students, one said he had been distracted because his grandmother had caught the coronavirus and they thought she was going to die; but now it seems that she is going to make it. The speed of evolution of the situation is dizzying. Rumor has it that about 40 priests (out of 150) are sick with the coronavirus. And the refrain of old people is: "we have never seen anything like this." (Talking both about the epidemy and about the confinement of the population.)
That is, in the span of two weeks this changed from an abstract worry to a disaster that is striking close by. I am not an anxious person, but have woken up at night feeling anxious about the next couple of weeks. (it's supposed to get worse.)
The Grim Reaper is wandering on the streets and choosing households to strike. Everyone is potentially threatened. (The majority of the deaths so far have been in the 60-80 age group, but except for children no one is totally safe.)
People over 70 years old are advised not to leave their homes at all. Get groceries home delivered or have neighbor volunteers buy them, and have them leave the groceries outside the door, so as to avoid contact.
Things that stores have run out of: alcohol gel, disinfecting wipes (for phones, door handles, etc), disposable gloves, face masks, thermometers.
Take care of yourselves!
Thanks for this, Claire. It provides a snapshot of our future which may be even worse. At present, I know no one with this virus or someone who knows someone. We'll see in two weeks.
DeleteClaire, praying that you stay well (and for everyone affected). One day at a time, I guess. It is sad that so many priests are sick, I suppose they were exposed in the course of ministry.
DeleteWe can't know anyone until someone gets tested.
DeleteIf we ever get around to testing at South Korean rates we will find we have cases and deaths at least at South Korean rates -- worse, really, because with both countries starting from the same date, the Koreans hit the ground running, and The Don deemed it only a rainy day.
A little humor in a dark time.
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/5U9berFB_MM
A Pence staffer tested positive. I think, to protect our President, they should place him alone in a padded, soundproof, electromagnetically shielded room.
ReplyDeleteAnd throw away the key?
DeleteI posted the new numbers above as reported by the New Times this morning, 17920 cases which means 5570 new cases. The cases are reported at different times by different places. Ohio updates it numbers each day at 2 pm so I consider the Times early morning numbers as evidence of the situation yesterday.
ReplyDeleteThe national numbers continue to rise above my predictions, the Ohio numbers are just slightly above my prediction. Lake County reported its third cases yesterday right on schedule.
Unfortunately Lake County contrary to the beliefs of many of its citizens is not an island off the coast of Cleveland. Cleveland was the source of the first cases in the state. Many people from Lake County work in Cleveland, e.g. the Clinic, Progressive Insurance. All those places have wide connections and likely much air travel. Unless we practice isolation the national maps issued today in the Times place us in a North Eastern Ohio hot spot due to our travel patterns.
NY TIMES projections by state by control measures
ReplyDeleteAccording to these projections Ohio will hit peak around May 15th if no control measures are done, or around June 25th if some measure are done. Of course severe measures should flatten the curve. But those are measures like the Chinese have taken, shutting down most of their economy.
I am deliberately trying to find glimmers of positive in the news each day. Since I have traveled a lot over a period of 50 years, mostly in Europe, I have seen how the dramatic increases in tourists is harming some of the most beautiful places in Europe. And from what I read, harming beautiful places, cities and natural, all over the entire planet. So I was pleased to see this story today
ReplyDeletehttps://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/20/nature-is-taking-back-venice-wildlife-returns-to-tourist-free-city
One takes silver linings where one can find them. I have also read the the clouds of air pollution surrounding some cities have lifted.
DeleteIn some ways the quarantines are reminiscent of the "jubilee years" of scripture. Some cities are suspending evictions of rental tenants for the time being. Paid sick leave as a policy has gained ground. Families with children are able to take a break from the endless round of structured activities and academic cramming that people seem to think are necessary to raise a successful adult. Of course everyone wants life to return to normal. But I'm hoping that when that finally happens we will be able to be a bit more intentional about what "normal" really should be.
Yes, carbon emissions are also down!
DeleteFinally, two degrees of separation. One of my dance partner's daughter got it. 103 fever broke. I guess she'll be a member of the herd after 7 more days of isolation.
ReplyDeleteI was just reading about what family members should do to avoid getting it if one of them is sick. Separate bedrooms and separate bathrooms. Gloves and masks anytime they are together. M'kay. Separate bedrooms we could do. But we only have one bathroom. No disposable gloves or masks to be had in town. Our upstairs is maybe 900 square feet not counting the basement. Pretty sure if one of us gets it we're both screwed. Guess we will just try really really hard to avoid getting exposed.
ReplyDeleteThey SAY "gloves and masks," but even hospitals don't have frills like that, although Dr. The Don says it's goverors' faults and Dr. Pence there will be plenty next week or the week after or sometime like that, and meanwhile try knitting our own.
DeleteThey are saying tie a bandana around your face if you're in danger of exposure and can't get a mask (seriously!)
DeleteDo you get the feeling that the fourth-graders are in charge?
DeletePretty much!
DeleteYes, I researched homemade masks, and an old tee-shirt will strain out close to 60 percent of crud, which is better than 0 percent, especially if exposure overload is a factor. This information looks fairly credible.
Deletehttps://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/diy-homemade-mask-protect-virus-coronavirus/
Jack, just want to say: I'm impressed by your simple model here. Somehow, quantifying it turns it into information.
ReplyDelete