Monday, March 23, 2020

Covid-19 v. The Framers

 The actual Enumeration, better known as the Census, is already a mess and going to get worse, even though Art.1, Sec. 2 of the Constitution says it must be done.
 The election of the President in November is also on shaky ground. When The New York Times editorial board, conservative columnist Mona Charen and historian Jon Meacham, who is close to the Bushes, all are concerned that someone may decide it shouldn't happen Sec. 1 of Art. 2 may be in trouble, too.
 (When we find ourselves in times of trouble I find myself more attracted to conservative Republicans who have stayed conservative but not Republican -- like Charen and Bret Stephens. And maybe Deacon Jim ;) My current favorite columnist is Michael Gerson, who is an evangelical, to boot. He reads the same authors I do. The people I used to rely on haven't noticed that they ought to explain what they are doing about the trillion-dollar baillout, so there is only The Don's word that they are obstructing it. End of obiter dicta.)
 As to the Census, I filled out our contribution and submitted it today. Our code arrived unheralded. I went to the mailbox, and there it was. Everybody is talking about Covid-19, and there has been putrid advertising for the Census. Maybe the money to advertise went into the futile legal defense for  discouraging brown people from responding by asking about immigration status. Anyhow, it is easy to see a lot of codes going into the trash along with scratch-off tickets with which you may win a car (or not), begging letters from charities that use your contributions to send begging letters and offers to buy your house sight unseen or give you free hearing aids. And most home computers these days are tied up with homework from closed schools and work-at-home jobs.
 The solution is old and tried and once true: Send enumerators door-to-door to find the information that doesn't come through the internet. There may be more need for them than in recent year with on-line reporting being new and that advertising being invisible. Except now is the training period for the enumerators, and no training can be done due to the virus. Maybe Covid-19 will abate with warmer weather and allow for canvassing, but Florida has been having the other states' idea of summer all along, and Florida is tied with Illinois at the moment as fourth among states in number of cases.
 It easily may become impossible to get a full count. One party will not mind if that leaves congressional district lines where the 2010 Census and gerrymandering put them.
 The titular leader of that same party would not mind if the 2020 election has to be postponed for a year or called off completely. It would leave him in charge of the Senate and, better yet, mean he doesn't have to deflect questions about his tax returns. Questions like, whether he still bothers to file.
 It well may be that social distance, or even stay-home orders, are in effect in November. It would be hard to hold an election under such circumstances. But it would be extremely difficult and costly to find a new way to hold elections.
 That is why it is not too early to start talking about it. The Times proffered the idea of vote-by-mail. Some states have that as an option. But Charen pointed out that there is many a slip between applying for a ballot and getting it back in order and in time to be opened.
 And when they are opened, she noted, it would take an army of people keeping social distance to count each and every ballot.
 Meacham noted that during the Civil War, Abraham Lincoln -- to whom the incumbent likes to be compared -- made sure all he soldiers in the field could vote when he came up for re-election in 1864. His advisers told him it was suicide because the Army loved the bloviating Gen. George B. McClellan,  Lincoln's opponent. Turned out, he Army shared Lincoln's view of his opponent. No one would dare to tell The Don that the  public would like someone better, but The Don could find other reasons to call off or postpone the election if the pandemic doesn't weaken significantly. And it has an equal chance of being worse. We do not want to arrive at November as unprepared with ballots as we were unprepared for coronavirus tests.

9 comments:

  1. Is there no way to put in place a hack-proof online voting system?
    We also filed our census form online yesterday. We had our code in hand already. Our state has had several ads on tv detailing the advantages to the state to have accurate census information. Hopefully at least some people are listening.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I'm going to look into PA mail-in ballots. If it takes two months to count the ballots, that should be in time for January 20, 2020.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Here in Ohio we have early balloting. You can have them send a ballot to you. You can return that by mail, or drop it off in person at the county registrar's office. Or you can go into the registrar's office and vote on machines there. I have done if all those ways. Of course you can also go to a local polling place on election day. I have still done that a few times recently.

    We all those options I don't think there is any excuse for delaying an election or for experimenting with internet balloting.

    ReplyDelete
  4. After seeing his performance in this pandemic, Gov. Andrew Cuomo would be my preference for a corporatist Democratic president, if you must have one. Biden would step aside at the appropriate time for health reasons or any pretense, if he loves his country.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Social distancing could be done at polling places. If it can be done in Target, it can be done anywhere.

    I'd like to think that a president can't cancel an election. Isn't it the states that run the voting, even for a federal election?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are correct that the president constitutionally has NO SAY in whether an election is held. But now we have medical professionals hoarding a lupus drug that The Don says will cure Covid-19, and a bunch of R governors and senators see nothing but similar brilliance in the leader, and they CAN stop an election. BTW, the attorney general has asked Congress to give him the power to detain indefinitely anybody (like Joe Biden) who is a threat to the government's handling of the crisis. When people panic, they get crazy.

      Delete
  6. We have been voting by mail here in California for a long time. You used to have to have a reason to do that, but now once you sign up for a mail-in ballot, you can choose to do it on a one-time of recurring basis. My polling place is across the street from our house and I stopped going there while I was working. The doors opened at 7:00 and the first people in line were the retired folk with nothing also to do. I had to get to work and started to vote by mail. It's easy and, starting this year, we can mail them in for free. No postage necessary. There are also drop boxes strategically placed where you can simply deposit them at your convenience.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Michael Bloomberg got 108,000 votes in the Democratic presidential primary. He ha already withdrawn but mail-in voters didn't know he would do that. General elections don't usually involve withdrawals but you never know when someone -- it doesn't have to be a presidential nominee, it can be a senatorial, House or other candidate -- will be indicted or brained with a frying pan by his girlfriend after the early voting begins.

      Delete
  7. Like Tom, I received a notification in the mail to take the census online. And like Tom, I had heard nothing about it until it showed up in our mailbox. Thinking it might be a hoax or scam for the Russian mob to collect my personal info, I walked over to the Google machine to see if there was anything about it. Unfortunately, Google found all sorts of items claiming it's a hoax. But none of those sites looked trustworthy. Ultimately I went to census.us.gov (or whatever it is), followed links to the 2020 census, and ended up where the mailer wanted me to start. So I completed it. Unless those dodgy sites were right, I think I've fulfilled my legal duty. Of course, hacking being what it is, my personal info could still end up in the hands of the Russian mob.

    ReplyDelete