Now that the Iowa results are in FiveThirtyEight has changed from predicting Biden will win to predicting that Bernie is the most likely winner.
Sanders 1 in 2 45% Actually I am surprised, if you look down at the individual state projections. It is amazing that he is likely to win most of them even if by only a plurality not a majority
No One 1 in 4 24% Really, Tom, they may have to settle it at the convention
Biden 1 in 5 20% Well Biden is certainly in deep trouble but I am surprised it is this bad.
Warren 1 in 20 5% I saw a lot of enthusiasm for her here in Lake County Ohio at the caucuses for choosing delegates. Would not count her out yet. I would really like to see a Sanders-Warren or a Warren-Sanders ticket.
Buttigieg 1 in 20 I don.t know what to make of his candidacy. The wine cellar scares me. Otherwise maybe O.K.
All others (that includes all you billionaires with your money, think you have any chance with all us Bernie people against the billionaires, the Democratic party may be unwise to put Bernie on the ballot but it will surely be suicidal if it puts a billionaire on the ballot) 1 in 100
I am going to watch the debate tonight but my mind shuts off at 9pm so I may not comment until tomorrow. I will be interested to see how the moderators handle this. Will they put Bernie in the center? with Buttigieg? where will Biden be? Maybe they will cast lots for positions? Will the other candidates go after Sanders? Buttigieg? How could anyone pick on Biden now? Looks like it is the last chance for all the others to make a good enough impression to change this around in New Hampshire.
So if the Trump disinformation machine has effectively kneecapped Biden (and I'm not ready to write him off yet, it's too early) we can assume that anyone he feels is a threat will get the same treatment. And if there's a front runner that he doesn't try to slime, that is also a danger sign. It means he thinks he would have an easy victory.
ReplyDeleteI hope Trump keeps on ranting and raving like he has the last couple of days, surely people will see that he's more in need of a straight-jacket than another term. (Though if they haven't seen it by now...)
Mike Bloomberg: Fixing Inequality Is My Priority
ReplyDeleteEvery Democrat running for president agrees that income inequality is one of the great problems of our time. And we all agree that the wealthy should pay more in taxes.
But only one of us has actually raised taxes on the wealthy by persuading a Republican legislature to vote for them: Me.
Unlike President Trump, I didn’t inherit my wealth, and I genuinely support causes I am passionate about: gun safety, climate change, women’s rights, universal health care, education and yes, electing Democrats — including those in 2018 who helped create a majority in the House of Representatives, which laid the groundwork for holding this president accountable.
I believe America should always be a country where a middle-class kid like me can start a business and succeed beyond her or his wildest dreams. But just as important, America must always be a place where the middle class grows bigger and stronger. Right now that’s not happening, because the rewards of the economy are far too concentrated at the top.
Interesting how many billionaires (or near billionaires) want to save us from the billionaires. And, of course, all this because Sanders has taken on the billionaires without needing the billionaires. He is simply raising what he calls an obscene amount of money to fight them.
Bloomberg is all over Michigan, and basically being ignored. His pro-Israel policy is concerning to me.
DeleteI trust the gambling sites more than Fivethirtyeight. They have actual money in the game.
ReplyDeleteStill favoring Biden over Bernie: https://www.gambling.com/us/online-betting/strategy/us-democratic-primary-betting-1817000
Trump is still the clear favorite overall: https://www.gambling.com/us/online-betting/us-presidential-election
Bernie's great, but he scares moderates and disaffected Republicans.
Jean, You are probably right. During the 2016 season I followed FiveThirtyEight because I like statistics and data. But they really failed to predict the election. Since then I have not followed them or watched CNN, which also proved useless. But one of the Times articles gave the link so I decided to see what they have to say. I also think the Times is useless but decided to follow them this election cycle just to see how out of touch they are.
DeleteBernie has had some remarkable favorable ratings in comparison to other politicians. Analysists do not focus on those. I think he might have had a better chance if the Democrats had run him against Trump last time when the enthusiasm was fresh. Trump like Reagan is a good actor and entertainer so nothing much sticks in terms of criticism. That is why Republicans are sticking with him.
Going into the bottom half of the first inning.
DeleteNominate anyone who uses the term Socialist to describe her/himself and you guarantee for more years of Trumplethinskintinyhandserialadulterer.
DeleteNominate a man who calls himself socialist and you know he's a damned honest son-of-a-bitch. Socialism was growing in the US until the Anti-sedition Act was used to jail Debs and other socialist figures. This was under a Democratic president. At present, the polarization between the parties may not be related to ideological differences as much as it is between two corporatist elites fighting for power. It always amazes me that the Repubs tried to impeach Clinton when he was as friendly to their policies as Trump would have been. Why did Tweedledum attack Tweedledee? We need something different. And I'm not sure Jewish Grandpa can't beat the Poltroon. Besides, we had a "centrist" corporatist imperialist candidate and she lost. Should we do the same thing over again?
DeleteGood point, Stanley, though the problem with Hilary was that she was widely hated by members of her own party.
DeleteWhen the term "socialism" can be applied to any system from the Netherlands to Venezuela, it has lost its meaning. Maybe the term itself is outdated. If Bernie talks about economic justice and fairness, he will get a hearing. The "great" economy isn't great for everyone.
DeleteBernie is more an FDR working class Democrat than anything else. A lot of the things that he advocates such as government mandated minimum wage, vacation time, and sick leave were things that in FDR days the unions would be empowered to negotiate.
DeleteBy and large the Republicans have destroyed unions.
Bernie has always set rather low government requirements in comparison to the democratic socialist governments in Europe. Part of that may be "not asking for too much, too soon" however I would not be surprised that he would prefer higher minimum wages, vacation and sick leave to be something better negotiated between management and workers of particular firms and industries.
The Democratic party was once the anti-communist workers party. In the sixties it moved toward being the civil rights party, women's rights and into more cultural than economic issues. In the meantime it moved toward the center on economic issues under Clinton/Gore to attract Republicans in the Northern States who were revolted by the GOP Southern strategy.
That is exactly right (ISTM), Jack. The Ds lost their soul when they assisted the Rs in destroying labor unions. What is amazing is that the people who need unions most are the ones most afraid of "socialism," or so it seems.
DeleteThumbing through the latest catalogue from Ignatius Press, home of the Council of Trent and termite to the current Vatican leadership, I found a video I hadn't seen before. It "exposes" Saul Alinsky, who has been dead for, lo, 47+ years. Leo XIII, it is as though you never wrote a line.
Yeah, what is it with that bunch and Saul Alinsky? You'd think he was Marx and Lenin rolled into one. And undead besides.
DeleteHow Pete Buttigieg Became the Surprise of the Iowa Caucuses
ReplyDeleteJoe Biden’s organization remained weak. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren focused on cities and college towns. Mr. Buttigieg, however, went everywhere.
He also had the advantage of being able to stay in the state when Sanders and Warren were preoccupied with impeachment.
A Catholic case for Pete Buttigieg
ReplyDeleteA senior fellow at Harvard Law School and volunteers as the Catholic engagement coordinator for the Pete Buttigieg campaign says
The bishops write, "In public life, it is important to practice the virtues of charity and justice that are at the core of our Tradition." The more I examine the bishops' document and the candidates, the more Pete emerges as the candidate whose values, personal conduct, integrity, and vision speak to my own conscience, a conscience that has been formed in faith, community, prayer and personal experience.
I read that article too, I thought it was good.
DeleteAnd I will totally shut down any Trump voter who says anything about Buttigieg's "immoral" lifestyle.
Yeah? Well Mr. Trump, Vioice of the eeeeeevangelicals and numerous Catholics, has announced he is not impressed by the religion of other people. (Not having any himself.) So there.
DeleteThe entire “Catholic case for …” series can be read here: https://www.ncronline.org/feature-series/catholic-eye-on-candidates/stories
DeleteButtigieg's husband, Chasten, is from Michigan. His brother, Rhyan Glezman, is a holy roller preacher over in Clio and made the rounds last summer saying he doesn't support "the gay lifestyle" and claiming Chasten lies about his family's reaction to his coming out. Randall Terry and friends have also said they plan on trying to disrupt as many of Pete's rallies as possible (https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/16/politics/pete-buttigieg-iowa-anti-gay-chants/index.html)
DeleteNothing against Pete or Chasten, but this is the kind of crap the fundie-gelical GOP loves to haul out to make Trump look like a Christian.
I hope it will not turn into a sideshow.
Both Pete and Chastened were baptized RC, but attend the Episcopal Church.
Lets see, Trump has cheated on all three of his wives, has been accused of sexual assault, bragged about grabbing them by the p-$$y, lies like a rug, has cheated contractors out of what he owed them; and his supporters pick on two men in a committed monogamous relationship? Even if one doesn't believe in gay marriage, the balance on the morality ledger sheet is not in Trump's favor.
DeleteI'm sorry for Chasten if his family doesn't accept his relationship.
Probably best that they are Episcopal now, because the Catholic Church can't square the circle regarding gay relationships.
Since I only care about policies and goals, sexual orientation and marital modality is irrelevant to me. However, if the eventual Democratic nominee receives donations from corporations and Wall Street, I will vote for him but I will not donate to the campaign.
DeleteI rarely agree with David Brooks, but this time I think he is spot on:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/opinion/trump-democrats-2020.html?te=1&nl=david-leonhardt&emc=edit_ty_20200207&campaign_id=39&instance_id=15815&segment_id=21065&user_id=82bf2057d2ebc4393657d719951fb2ca®i_id=3491341420200207
How Trump Wins Again
The only part of that which is not understandable to me is why any voter who was a Bernie supporter would switch to Trump if Bernie were out of the race. If you had a Venn diagram, I just can't feature the two circles labeled "Trump" and "Sanders" having any overlap.
DeleteKatherine: why did Obama voters switch to Trump … did they dislike Hillary THAT much, or where they just plain stupid?????
DeleteWhile I doubt many people who were firmly committed to Bernie would go to Trump, a significant number of them may sit out the race. There are many people who just don't care about Trump. I think that is particularly likely to be true among young people. They were for Bernie long before Trump became the Republican candidate.
DeleteSecondly Trump attracts many working class people who were among the Reagan Democrats. They are basically looking for someone who responds to their issues. I think Joe Biden helped them to go with Obama. They respond to Sanders working class against the rich themes Trump as an actor has become very adept at responding to them as did Reagan.
Sure there are middle class and upper middle class former Republicans who have come over into the Democratic party who are skeptical of Sanders. I suspect Trump will win them over with his claims of being responsible for a better economy regardless of whom the Democratic candidate is.
Many of those voters were in Michigan. Yes, they hated Hillary that much, and they believed Trump's lies about caring about the working stiff and standing up to industry. Trump is taking credit for saving auto jobs in Detroit. We'll see if that translates to votes. A few folks are beginning to see firsthand that there is a big difference between the stock market boom and their monthly paycheck, which is still stagnant. OTOH, many more people are working, and even a crummy job is preferable to no job.
DeleteJimmy,
DeleteThey disliked the coastal elites of whom Hilary was an outstanding example. She called them despicable. Obama came very close to loosing them with his "guns and religion" characterization. However the economy was tanking and they shared his "hope."
I read part of an article today that said if Clinton had been elected we would just be a different kind of miserable. Not sure I agree. But I do think they would have found a reason to try and impeach her when the Republicans had control of both houses. I doubt that McConnell would have treated her any better than he did Obama.
DeleteHere is the link for the 'nother kind of miserable article.
DeleteKatherine, thanks for the link. Olmstead seems to be saying that Trump is destined to make America a living hell regardless of whether he is in office. If we can weather another four years of him, he'll be too worn out to cause trouble in the sidelines. So there's that. Maybe by that time, with eight years of Trumpism rammed down their throats, Mitch McConnell will return to the ooze, and a better GOP will emerge.
DeleteI only watched the first hour of the debate. Again I thought all the candidates did well. I thought the moderators did poorly. They seemed to be trying to get the candidates to engage in at least food fights if not mud slinging. The candidates did a good job of not taking the bait.
ReplyDeleteThe NY Times contributors gave Klobuchar, followed by Bernie, top honors. They think that if debates effect the public that she should get a boost.
They rated Biden, Warren and Buttigieg as mediocre.
The Democratic Party has removed the requirement about numbers of donors. This might make way for Bloomberg in future debates. He now has a couple of people on the rules committee.
I like Amy, so may be biased, but agree she did the best. Uncle Joe was more animated. Bernie always does well. Bloomberg, ugh, but if he's what it takes to get rid of Trump, so be it.
DeleteHere is one analysis of Iowa. The short version: turnout was ok but not world-beating; but young people turned out in record numbers and went for Bernie; seniors turned out in their usual numbers and went largely for Biden; turnout was down significantly for people age 45-64. It seems Bernie's age demographic is motivated; the others', not as much.
ReplyDeleteHere is detail:
"According to Iowa entrance polls, voters under 30 comprised 24 percent of the caucus-going electorate — up six points from 2016 and one point better than 2008, when young voters carried Barack Obama to victory. Those voters preferred Sanders to Buttigieg by nearly 30 points, 48 percent to 19 percent, as did voters age 30–44 by ten points, 33 percent to 23 percent.
"If more young people showed up in 2020 than 2016, but the overall number of voters remained the same, who didn’t show up this time around? The share of voters over the age of 65 remained about the same: It was 28 percent in 2016, and 27 percent in 2020. Joe Biden ran first among this group, besting Amy Klobuchar 33 percent to 22 percent, but that wasn’t enough to overcome his weak overall performance. The group that shrank as a share of the electorate was voters between the ages of 45 and 64, who comprised 36 percent of Democratic caucus-goers in 2016 but only 28 percent in 2020.
"Oddly enough, those voters were the only age group that Buttigieg carried: They preferred him to Biden by eight points, 26 percent to 18 percent. Whereas Sanders is strong among young voters and weak among old voters and Biden has the opposite problem, Buttigieg’s coalition was much more evenly distributed among voters of all ages in Iowa ..."
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/02/in-iowa-bernies-youth-movement-showed-up-while-generation-x-flaked-out/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NR%20Daily%20Monday%20through%20Friday%202020-02-07&utm_term=NRDaily-Smart
I don't feel that any state which uses the caucus format has any room to complain about low turnout. Unless one has a high degree of motivation, the prospect of spending a week night in a school gym listening to political discussions is not very appealing. I should add that I feel that one should be motivated to do one's civic duty. Maybe look on it as a bit of necessary mortification for the common good. Nevertheless, maybe the middle-agers didn't show up because they had to get up for work the next morning.
DeleteCaucus state outcomes should not be judged the way primary elections are. (This is what makes National Review's analysis an exercise in wheel-spinning.) Turnout is no factor. The ones who care, for the most part, get there. The ones who don't care don't have to show up. The Iowa (and other caucus state) DEMOCRATIC PARTY sets up the caucus to find out what PARTY MEMBERS think. The caucus is not designed to get at the nominally Democratic or registered-D-because you-have-to-be-something voters. It's a party meeting, not a y'all come, in the first place. The main thing that has gone wrong in Iowa is that it also substitutes for what we in Florida call homeowners meetings, where you go to socialize, and make the speakers repeat themselves because you weren't paying attention.
DeleteI get the sense from the youngest cohort that they are the least prejudiced when it comes to race, religion, sex orientation, etc. But that cuts both ways politically. The candidate is black? That's nice but so what? The candidate is female? Not important. The candidate is gay? Again, that's nice but irrelevant. This generation has economic problems not of their own making. And the Great Demigod of Capitalism doesn't seem to have solutions or even care. So they look to someone who recognizes their problems and is committed to addressing them.
ReplyDelete"But that cuts both ways politically."
DeleteYou may well be right.
I suppose people are all over the map when it comes to this business of electing the first person of color / gay candidate / woman president etc. Some find it highly motivating; some find it moderately so; a few truly don't care; some find it highly off-putting. I don't think it's a reliable political strategy, but there are certain times when the electorate sort of rises up to make a statement. But I believe those times are few and far between. Maybe, but only maybe, President Obama's first election was one of those moments. As for his re-election, I think competence was a bigger factor than his racial identity.
Chicago's mayor, Lori Lightfoot, is a gay black woman. Any of those last three adjectives might have been a deal-breaker for many Chicago voters within my living memory. The first black mayor, Harold Washington, was elected in the midst of frenzied racial division in the 1980s.
It seems pretty clear that those days are gone in Chicago. The recent Chicago election pitted two progressive black women against each other. Such a race wouldn't have been thinkable in Harold Washington's day; white politicians and party officials would have collaborated to run a white politician as a Republican or a third party candidate. That sort of thinking is relegated to the days of history now, at least in Chicago.
Remember Bill Clinton saying, "It's the economy, stupid!" ?
ReplyDeleteIt's still the economy. Every single defense I have read of Donald Trump's policies has touted the economy. No exceptions. That is a big thing the Democratic candidates have to do. They have to convince the voters that the economy won't suffer if they are elected. Maybe that's a low bar, but it's nevertheless one they have to clear.
If you had financial problems, then it is time for you to smile. You only need to contact Mr. Benjamin with the amount you wish to borrow and the payment period that suits you and you will have your loan within three working days. I just benefited for the sixth time a loan of 700 thousand dollars for a period of 180 months with the possibility of paying before the expiration date. Mr Benjamin has be helping me with loan.Make contact with him and you will see that he is a very honest man with a good heart.His email is lfdsloans@lemeridianfds.com and his WhatApp phone number is + 1-989-394-3740
ReplyDeleteHow much will you lend me @ no interest rate and an indefinite repayment period?
DeleteJack, you ought to be encouraged this morning by the results of the NH primary!
ReplyDelete