"Biden appears to many as a man out of step with the
times and his party. A 76-year-old white moderate man seeking to lead a
party that is increasingly progressive, young and dominated by women and
people of color? That’s about as counterprogramming as you get in
politics. If this were a movie, Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.), a
54-year-old progressive woman of color, seems more like the candidate
studio heads would cast as the lead. To beat her and the other
contenders, Biden needs to "dance with the one that brung ya” — himself.
That
means making a virtue out of his supposed weaknesses. From the get-go,
he needs to explain why his age and moderation are reasons for Democrats to nominate him, not things they should overlook as they nominate him.
He should say, "...Yes, I’m old. But that’s a strength, not a weakness. I’m old enough to
remember a time when Democrats and Republicans disagreed but didn’t hate
each other. I’m old enough to remember a time when Americans of all
genders and races stood up to dictators and won the Cold War without
telling mass murderers they were good people."
"....The greatest Democrat, Franklin Roosevelt, told Americans that they
faced “a rendezvous with destiny.” The truth is that every American
generation faces that rendezvous, because we always have to meet new
challenges while keeping our old values. I became a Democrat because I
wanted to be a part of that rendezvous, of renewing our national promise
of equality and liberty for all as new problems arose. I’ve been doing
that for more than 40 years, and I want one last chance to do it again."
Biden's stated reason for entering the race: "...if we give Donald Trump eight years in the White House, he will forever and fundamentally alter the character of this nation ... and I cannot stand by and watch that happen.”
In Biden's favor are his years of experience in government. He is experienced with foreign policy and judicial matters, plus his eight years as vice president in the Obama administration. With many other candidates there would be a steep learning curve. And unlike Donald Trump, he wouldn't need a course in remedial 8th grade civics.
The Democratic party has many candidates from which to choose. Biden will either get primaried out, or he will have more support than people give him credit for. Time will tell.
I am in the position of interested bystander, since I can't vote in a Democratic primary. Our state has a different system anyway. But unless the Democrats nominate Atilla the Hun, I will be voting for their candidate in 2020. What they need to do is get out of "circular firing squad" mode.
I definitely want a return to the old values of the Democratic Party and that means the goals of the New Deal. I associate Biden with getting along with Republicans while they were pushing the Reaganite Old Deal. The centrist Democrats also were bipartisan in supporting our overextended empire and military adventurism. We need to fix this stuff instead of following a centrist path right into a rock. But, bottom line, I'll certainly vote for Biden, if he's nominated. But Biden won't save this country.
ReplyDelete"Biden won't save this country."
ReplyDeleteNo one president can.
He would restore sane foreign policy, environmental regulations, and maybe propose legislation to address immigration and safety net reforms.
Here's Nate Silver (538) on Biden's chances...a very thorough look at the pluses, possibilities, and minuses.
ReplyDeletehttps://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-joe-biden-could-win-the-2020-democratic-nomination/
I watched his video announcement included in Silver's post.
Theme: WHO WE ARE!
Thanks for linking that article, Margaret. It sums things up pretty well. One thing it notes is that the left-leaning media is not going to be friendly to Biden, and that is certainly true. HuffPost really has the knives out for him today. There's three negative articles on their site that just showed up today. The lead one is a picture of Anita Hill saying, "Sorry isn't good enough!" They want to sink him hard and sink him soon. Which gets my back up, not that it matters.
DeleteOne thing not mentioned is how important Biden's choice of a running mate would be, given his age.
DeleteI'm wary of Silver and his numerology, as I have opined on here before.
DeleteMy sense is that the Millennials are going to be less engaged because this cycle they have finished college (the youngest Millennials were born in 1996), and jobs are more plentiful. They're busy, they're paying off debt, and the "free college for everybody" rallying cry isn't going to be as powerful. They are also easily bored and want novelty. All that is bad news for Bernie.
Latinos for whom immigration is an important issue (and Latinos are hardly a monolithic voting bloc, and many are immigration hawks) have no reason to be excited about any Democrats. They felt betrayed by Obama and, maybe, Biden by extension. They may think Trump is a horror, but Democrats have hardly done much to effect real reform.
Take some Latinos and most Millennials out of the equation due to apathy, and I think it's down to black women as the driver of the results.
We are looking at some scary Social Security/Medicare problems coming down the like in the next decade. Fear-mongering by Dems on this issue might help loosen Trump's grip on the elderly vote.
Not sure other elements in Trump's 40 percent base can be wooed away. And, God, who wants them? Big Business racketeers, Nazis, gun nuts,and Rapture-obsessed Protestants.
The primary debates among Democratic front runners will, I think, tell us whether age is an issue. If older candidates stumble, ramble, or forget stuff, yeah, it will be an issue. But none of these candidates, so far, acts or sounds doddery.
Let us not conflate "progressive" with the Looney Left! Give me a Biden Progressive any time.
ReplyDeleteWho, in your opinion, is the Looney Left?
DeleteI would label as progressive nowadays anybody slightly to the left of Dwight D. Eisenhower. Biden, Clintons and Obama don't qualify. Biden progressive is an oxymoron. His basic message is that Trump is crazy but he's not. True enough but not enough.
DeleteTrump has moved the needle. Ben Sasse and Mitt Romney look progressive right now.
DeleteBiden is a "people person" who likes working a room, and I think he's one of those guys who gets carried away by his own performance at times. If he sees you buying what he's selling, he pours it on some more, and believes it sincerely. Then he moves on. Articulating a consistent and coherent message is harder for him than Bernie.
Hey, Stanley, President Ike gave us -- (like that "gave us"? -- the socialist interstate highways. You'd never get that from the gang in power today.
DeleteYeah, Tom. Ike as an army captain in 1919 joined a transcontinental convoy that took 62 days to travel from coast to coast. The officers, at Tripp's end, were in unanimous agreement that a federal highway system was necessary for defense purposes. Thirty years later, the gummint under Ike did it. Funny how capitalism and the free market didn't build it sooner. And now there's that other gummint system, the Global Positioning System that enables 90% of the functionality of our smart phones. Free market, indeed.
DeleteA couple of what I would consider to be responsible conservative takes at National Review on Biden's candidacy:
ReplyDeleteMichael Brendan Dougherty points out that, in an era in which Democratic Party energy seems to be about fundamental change, Biden offers an affirmation of the status quo.
https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/04/joe-bidens-presidential-prospects/
John McCormack points out that Biden's record of moderation on abortion is out of step with current Democratic trends:
https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/04/joe-biden-abortion-stance-may-sink-democratic-primary-hopes/
For sure, it would be an uphill proposition for Biden to get the nomination. But it is an uphill for any of them at this point. Trouble is, there really isn't two parties any more, if there ever was. There's at least at least six of them, under the umbrella of the two parties. The excitement and disruption part of the Democratic party is at odds with the with those who have had quite enough disruption at the hands of the disruptor-in-chief.
DeleteThe second article is unfortunately correct that abortion has become a purity and litmus test for the Dems. NARAL owns them much the same as the NRA owns the Repubs. Pretty depressing. The Ds may be the party of diversity, but they don't allow any diversity on that issue. That may sink Biden.
Just a crabby observation from the Dougherty article, I feel tempted to strangle the next person who uses "woke" as an adjective.
Already with the "Sleepy Joe." OK, our insecure president has to indulge himself with cheap, humorless insults. But the media doesn't have to amplify them. Biden is carrying a ton of baggage, from running with the speech of a British parliamentarian through beating up Anita Hill to the latest ought-to-be-nonstarting complaints from women he made to feel "uncomfortable." Add Benghazi, Benghazi, Benghazi, to which, as VP, he can be linked, and the trash job the Pudgy Don and his minions could do on Biden -- to the disgusted amusement of the cover-it-all media -- is endless.
ReplyDeleteThe Upshot column at the NYTimes does a Joe, Then and Now column in today's print edition. It also does people who were Democrats then and now.
ReplyDelete"This was not a coalition of ideologically consistent, progressive voters. It can be difficult for today’s policy-driven activists to imagine, but many were voting Democratic mainly because of identity and interest — they saw themselves as union workers, African-Americans, white Southerners, the poor. They were strong, lifelong Democrats mainly because of who they were, not because of what they believed.
"What they believed was often very different from what many Democrats believe today."
The column makes the contrast with mostly Pew data. Don't have to time right now to sort through, but here's the link:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/25/upshot/2020-biden-bet-older-moderates.html?searchResultPosition=3
I will have to come back and read the whole thing later, but will just comment on one thing I noticed in the NYT article and elsewhere. Joe Biden has been criticized for opposing desegregation busing. However, busing seems to have been a 70s and 80s thing that has largely gone away now. White resistance is cited as one reason, but black families didn't necessarily like it either. Omaha discontinued it years ago, and now uses magnet schools and an opt-in option wherein parents can send their children to other schools in the public system if they don't like their neighborhood school. I don't hear of anyone wanting to bring mandatory busing back. So if the idea is basically dead in the water in most locations, it seems illogical to beat on Biden about it now.
DeleteKatherine, to your point: Another NYTimes article today looks at the fairly complicated system San Francisco has devised to try to integrate their schools. Apparently it worked at first, but now seems not. It was based on Parental choice, i.e., getting parents to rank the schools in which they wanted to register their kids. Sounds pretty complicated and somewhat time-consuming, meaning partly that better off educated parents had a better chance of getting the school they wanted than other parents. School officials sound like they are trying to devise yet another system...apparently housing prices in SF play a critical role in the problem.
DeleteNothing stands still...not history, not trying to do good!
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/25/us/san-francisco-school-segregation.html?searchResultPosition=1
I don't think there is a system that's totally fair. One of the biggest complaints was that busing was a gigantic time-sink for the students; long commutes when they were not in school, not doing homework, and not spending time with family. Not to mention difficulty participating in extracurricular activities if they fell outside the busing schedule.
DeleteDavid Ignatius argues that Biden may not be best for the Democrats, but he'd be best for the country because he can beat Trump. Country before party!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/04/25/joe-biden-is-best-candidate-beat-trump/?utm_term=.a5960dff3dce&wpisrc=nl_opinions&wpmm=1
Well, large demonstrations moved Obama's corporate friendly butt on the Keystone Pipeline. Perhaps the same pressure could be applied to a President Biden. In the long run, only large movements of citizens ( not necessarily majorities) can fix inequality and climate change.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteI respect Ignatius a lot.. But I stand in awe of Jan Mayer, who was just on NPR amplifying the suspicion that Joe loves to be liked, which is how the GOP managed to roll him on the Thomas hearings.
DeleteAs far as I can tell at this point, Pete Buttigieg is the only D who can stand up to a total GOP barrage of lies, slanders and snick. He has already been there, done that and handles it well. Of course, first he would have to overcome the Ds with reservations, and there probably are way too many of them. Whoever else gets the nomination will come out stinking of something that's not his his/her fault.
I like Pete Buttigieg. I just wish he had more experience beyond being mayor of a medium sized city. Even so, it's more experience in government than Trump had.
DeleteJoe loves to be liked, which is how the GOP managed to roll him on the Thomas hearings.
DeleteHow come George HW Bush who declared Thomas the greatest thing since white bread when nominating him to the Supreme Court isn't getting some of this pillorying? Oh right, he's dead...
Saturday Confession: I wrote editorials back then not finding Anita Hill credible (haven't actually gone back to read them...) and was not a fan of Thomas.... So how is a poor Senator likely to do any better?
Tom wrote, "As far as I can tell at this point, Pete Buttigieg is the only D who can stand up to a total GOP barrage of lies, slanders and snick. He has already been there, done that and handles it well." I'm wondering: How will he handle this, and how may it affect his candidacy? (Maybe someone else posted this earlier and I missed it. If so, sorry.)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/19/us/politics/buttigieg-black-police-chief-fired.html
Pete Buttigieg Fired South Bend’s Black Police Chief. It Still Stings.
Jean wrote, "Not sure other elements in Trump's 40 percent base can be wooed away. And, God, who wants them? Big Business racketeers, Nazis, gun nuts,and Rapture-obsessed Protestants." I doubt that "Big Business racketeers, Nazis, gun nuts,and Rapture-obsessed Protestants" make up a big part of that 40%. How can the other part -- the rest of that 40% -- be reached, touched, given reason to re-think their preferences?
ReplyDeleteCoal miners have been a disenchanted group of Trump voters. Opioid addiction has plagued poor areas, including coal country. Practical proposals to address coal/rustbelt problems might gain traction.
DeletePart of that 40% would be people who can't see their way clear to vote for the Dems as long as they owe their souls to NARAL and Planned Parenthood.
DeleteCheck this article out: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/4/26/18518485/marie-newman-lipinski-anti-abortion-dccc-vendors
It's that mindset that alienates the pro-life voters.
Katherine, That nails it. One of my old primary doctors, now retired, gave me a 10-minute lecture (on Easter Sunday morning) on the faults and failures of the Pudgy one. Then he said, "But do the Democrats have anybody who is pro-life?" He'll vote for Trump again. The only D who comes close to being pro-life is, ah, Biden, but he has been lumped, by the R lumpers, with Pelosi, Pelosi, Pelosi and all those other fake Catholics since back when he was in the Senate.
DeleteTom, yeah. And the Ds will primary any of their own candidates who favors any kind of restriction on abortion rights, even in a sorta kinda fake Catholic way. Because it's a War on Women if you vary from orthodoxy. Recall ho they threw Heath Mello under the bus:
Deletehttps://www.ksl.com/article/44164444/dems-want-omaha-win-but-anti-abortion-candidate-riles-some
Everyone here knows I am a bad lapsed Catholic and not 100 percent anti-abortion. I have problems with absolutists on both sides.
DeletePractically speaking, there needs to be a much softer plank on abortion rights in the party, and there absolutely must be room for pro-life candidates in the Democratic Party.
Calling people "fake Catholics" in the course of this this discussion is the kind of absolutist tactic I think turns people off because it calls their honesty and integrity into question.
Jean, I basically agree with you. The "fake Catholic" was said tongue in cheek, because that is how litmus testers frame it. I am against litmus tests on either side of the political aisle.
DeleteTrump base: Wisconsin farmers selling their milk cows and going broke...thanks in part to Trump's messing with NAFTA and trade relations.
Deletehttps://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/26/us/politics/trump-trade-war-wisconsin-dairy.html?searchResultPosition=2
I think Tom was being sarcastic in labeling the Speaker a "fake Catholic". Or rather, he was channeling a good deal of rhetoric one can find on the right.
DeleteKatherine, you're right about Democrats primarying candidates and even elected officials who stray from party orthodoxy on abortion. Bart Stupak, the Democratic former House member from Michigan who should be in the all-time Democratic pantheon for supplying the House votes that pushed Obamacare past the finish line, retired after a pro-choice candidate announced she would primary him in the very next election. And I've posted here previously about US Rep. Dan Lipinski, a longtime Democratic member of the House who is pro-life and who barely won his primary last year over a challenger who received financial support from the usual pro-abortion funding and advocacy organizations. That challenger, Marie Newman, already has declared her candidacy for 2020 for the same House seat.
Regarding that race: this story may be of interest, as it reflects at least tangentially on what we're discussing. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), whose mission is to preserve and extend a Democratic House majority, apparently has announced that it will not do business with any campaign consultants who are hired by Democratic campaigns that aim to unseat Democratic incumbents. Newman and her pro-abortion allies are furious. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who entered the House by primarying an established incumbent, also has spoken out against the policy.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/4/26/18518485/marie-newman-lipinski-anti-abortion-dccc-vendors
A talking point much-discussed in conservative circles these days is that recent polling illustrates that the large blocs of Democratic voters are actually a good deal more moderate than the activists who are pulling candidates to the left. That moderate list includes African Americans and suburban women, two key constituencies for any Democratic presidential candidate. Older Democratic voters also fall into this category. This article suggests that this could well be what Biden is betting on.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/09/politics/democratic-party-voters-analysis/index.html
Yeah, that "fake Catholic" back there was sarcastic channeling. I thought "Pelosi, Pelosi, Pelosi" made that clear.
DeleteNo, sorry, I didn't get the sarcasm, so excuse.my thin skin. Lots of things we late life, half-assed converts don't pick up on.
DeleteDemocratic politicians want women to be able to abort their unborn. Republican politicians want CO2 levels that could possibly abort the human race. Women aren't forced to abort. But many humans will have no choice but to deal with a less friendly climate for millenia, perhaps to extinction. This enables me to vote for a pro-choice Green New Deal (GND) politician. On the other hand, if a politician who is GND could get elected by eschewing pro-choice, that would be the right thing to do. Climate change is also more critical than pro-choice. There's always birth control and reversing Roe v. Wade won't eliminate abortion nationally. How one would implement such a policy combo say with judiciary choices, I don't know. Oh well, another thought experiment.
ReplyDeleteI appreciate your thinking, Stanley.
DeleteI believe that people will support the parts of the GND that make economic sense to them. Clean energy ultimately does make a great deal of economic sense.
DeleteWith right to life issues, many, if not the majority of abortions, are driven by poverty. Supporting the rights to food, shelter and healthcare would prevent more abortions than endlessly arguing about it.
There's more than one way to achieve the outcomes we desire.
"With right to life issues, many, if not the majority of abortions, are driven by poverty."
DeleteI assume the majority of abortions - the vast majority - are for life-script reasons, i.e. having a baby would disrupt the mom's life, plans and aspirations (which can be different for every mom). Maybe poverty is a subset somehow of that category. But I don't believe that there are hundreds of thousands of young women each year thinking, "I would love to have and keep this baby, if only I could afford it."
Democrats will have to contend with New York's new abortion law...which protects late, late term abortions. Passed by our newish Democratic dominated state legislature.
DeleteYes, New York's new law of pink-floodlights-on-the-world-trade-center fame. The proponents are shocked and offended that anyone would suggest that it would be applied to any situation other than dire threat to life or fetal anomaly. But they left the door wide open.
DeleteI think Jim is basically right, though he, imo, makes "life script" reasons sound merely petty and selfish.
DeleteI knew a lot of women in college who had abortions out of fear--fear of boyfriends, fear of their parents cutting off college funds if they got pregnant, fear of the adoption system, fear of losing independence, fear of not knowing what else to do, etc.
Pregnant women who want to give up their babies have a far greater support system now through adoption agencies, and pro-life organizations provide better practical solutions. I am also guessing that Planned Parenthood has prevented more abortions with cheap birth control. And possibly the advent of sex ed about STDs increased condom use also prevented unwanted pregnancies.
Anyhow, something is working because, according to the CDC, the number of abortions to live births peaked in 1980, and has trended down since then, from 359 per 100,000 to 188.
None of this is to say Church teaching on abortion is wrong. It merely sets an extremely high bar for sexual continence that is at variance with secular mores.
Jean, thanks, I see that you're probably right:fear can be a big motivator.
DeleteI don't think fear is as big a motivator now, but it was when I was younger.
DeleteBabies born out of wedlock are more accepted, and so are their mothers. Good for babies, but doesn't do much to improve male responsibility.
And I know too many middle-aged parents losing their savings and sanity trying to help a single daughter and grandchild grow up.
I have at least three friends who get up every morning and provide free babysitting for their grandchildren.
So much for retirement.
Damn kids today ...
My guess for what it's worth (which isn't much) is that, when the dust settles on Democratic primary season, the three candidates left standing when the others have fallen away will be Harris, Sanders and Beto.
ReplyDeleteI think Beto is fading even as we write. His misspent youth is coming up for scrutiny...see today's NYT.
DeleteOne could almost frame primaries like March Madness brackets. My (also worthless) prediction for last three standing are Buttigieg, Sanders, and Biden.(sorry, women). Wonder what the bookies will say.
DeleteMy granddaddy wasn't a bigamist gambling addict without me learning where to place a few bets. Paddy Power, the Irish bookie site, called Trump in 2016, but the site is now restricted. A Brit site has these aggregate odds that agree with Katherine.
Deletehttps://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate
Making brackets before the season is over is like folding paper airplanes and expecting them to land at O'Hare. But I think you have to include Harris who checks two boxes and makes it easier to come off Warren.
DeleteI sometimes wonder if the bookies aren't more accurate than pollsters, though. The fact that money is involved might make the info the newsmakers get more sincere. But, of course, the odds will change.
DeleteBeto, who is #5 on the odds list, seems to have realized that boyishly standing on chairs and flashing his big Kennedy teeth isn't giving him the right gravitas. WaPo reports he's taking a more serious tone and addressing actual issues.
I am late to this. Jean: the Looney left is the like a if AOC and, almost as bad, Bernie. I want a winner as the Democratic candidate (Bernie is not a Democrat) and not some purist loser. Without defeating Trumplethinskintinyhandsrrialadulterer, no pipe dreams are possibke.
ReplyDeleteCall me a proud centrist Democrat!
My inner centrist and inner radical are often at war such that I end up in some quasi libertarian area. Right now, I am pretty much in the Anybody Who Can Beat that Bastard party.
DeleteIt would be nice to sit next to Raber on the couch and not feel his blood pressure spiking.
If we had started addressing the CO2 problem back in the 80's, maybe we wouldn't need a radical looney left Green New Deal. But here we are after almost 40 years of doodlefnarking and the only thing that makes sense, at the moment, has been proposed by AOC. It is necessarily radical and a lot of smart climatologists don't think AOC is looney. Perhaps Pelosi thinks the whole thing can be cured by throwing another plastic bottle in the recycling bin.
Delete