“In
a classic case of the return of the repressed, the question the supporters of
Brexit refused to address has come back to haunt them. Theirs was a dream of a
simple, once-and-for-all escape from the past 46 years of history. Britain
would erase the recent past, in which its destiny has been intertwined with
that of its continental neighbors, and begin a new and glorious story. But
there is another history, one in which Britain has been entwined, for many
centuries, with an even closer neighbor, Ireland. That story cannot be erased.
And the impossibility of escaping from it has, in the end, made Brexit itself
impossible.
“If Brexit has come crashing down to earth, the piece of Earth in question is a straggling, meandering, perplexing and porous line on the map: the 310-mile border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. It emerged as a temporary line of partition in 1920 — ironically during another episode in which a country was exiting a larger union. Catholic Ireland was breaking away from the United Kingdom. The Protestant-dominated Northeast wanted to remain. So it was agreed that there would be a short-term boundary until a permanent solution was found.
"That
never happened. The temporary line became a permanent, fraught border. Irish
nationalists regarded it with resentment as an improper imposition on the
natural unity of the island. Unionists, on the other hand, regarded the border
as their defense against being absorbed into a Catholic-dominated United
Ireland against their will. During the 30-year conflict that racked Northern
Ireland — between 1968 and 1998 — the border became one of the most heavily
policed in the world, with armed troops, watchtowers and the buzz of military
helicopters overhead. For the communities separated by it, it was a daily
reminder of bitter and violent difference.
"And
then a wonderful thing happened. Britain, Ireland, the E.U. and the United
States worked together to create one of the finest diplomatic achievements of
the past 50 years: the Belfast Agreement of 1998 (also known as the Good Friday
Agreement). With peace, the border more or less vanished.... For 20 years, people
have come and gone freely over about 300 crossings to work, trade and socialize
— 105 million times a year….
"But
along came Brexit. Its effects, if implemented in their pure form, would be not
just to restore a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic
but also to make it much more extreme than it ever was before….
"The
naked truth is that the prospect of disrupting the peace agreement really does
not matter to the voters in Britain who backed Brexit. Asked whether “the
unraveling of the peace process in Northern Ireland” is a “price worth paying”
for a Brexit that allows them to “take back control,” fully 83 percent of
“Leave” voters agree that it is….
That 83% statistic is about the dreariest thing I have seen in a long time. I suppose that if Americans were asked if mass starvation in Central America is a price worth paying for secure borders, you'd get the same result from people who wear red baseball caps.
ReplyDeleteSomething went wrong in the world I started to grow up in.
It's possible that the English of England exiters have had it with the Ulsterpersons and would be happy to be set loose from them....which they would be if the backstop became permanent.
DeleteOf course, if they think it would be fine to set North and South fighting again, that is dreary!
Would North and South fight again? I'm under the impression, from afar, that Ireland basically has caught up with the rest of the developed world in the diminishment of the importance of religious identity. I'd be surprised if the prospect of being absorbed by a nation of papists is what those in the North find objectionable.
DeleteYou'd think it would be over, wouldn't you?
DeleteThe fear of the Troubles returning seems to rest on remnants of the IRA and RUC (etc.) returning to the fight. Someone (IRA?) tried to blow up a van in Derry not long ago, whether as a prank or a warning is not clear.
It would seem religious identity ought to be a mute issue at this point though it turns out, I believe, that the North has been resistant to the cultural changes (abortion and gay marriage) that the Republic has voted to legalize. Hardly papists any longer!
I take it that there remains a strong identity linked to England among some proportion of the population in the North, no longer the majority I think and perhaps no longer very Presbyterian or Anglican either.
From maps and pictures I've seen a hard border looping through Ireland does seem like idiocy..
A lot of writing Irishmen say they fear the Troubles could return in some form. They may simply be looking for a frisson. But Patrick Radden Keefe, who just published "Say Nothing," which is about a Belfast abduction and murder that took place in 1972, said that a lot of the people he talked to in his research 40 years later said they didn't want to talk about it, thank you very much.
Delete(I haven't read the book yet, but it's high on my must-list. Keefe does good interviews.)
What happens to this newest edition of The Irish Question if/when new UK elections are called, following which, presumably, 10 Ulster MPs no longer will be kingmakers? Does that improve the prospects of the UK ceding Ulster to Ireland?
ReplyDeleteAn election is tantalizing, isn't it? If Labour won, I doubt that the 10 Ulster votes would be mentioned again.
DeleteIf the Tories won, it might depend on how many survived the slaughter. Hard to believe they'd be the majority again, but I think Jeremy Corbyn is widely disliked and his becoming PM might deminish the Labour vote. A bunch of new parties are emerging from the chaos but none yet seems to have anywhere enough ooomph!
And two Tory leaders, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are under fire for allowing "illegal/illicit" money in the Leave campaign all those months ago! I think both are hankering to replace PM May.
DeleteJim P: Ah, but does Ulster WANT to be "ceded" to the Republic?
DeleteMy Ulster Protestant relatives supported the reunification of Ireland. Many Protestants did. Read about Roddy McCorley and the United Irishmen.
ReplyDeleteAnd Protestants no longer hold large majorities in Ulster districts.
The question of Irish unity is a matter of economics more than religion now: Is Ulster still an English economic colony, beholden to British enterprises for jobs and prosperity? Or could it attract enough European biz to recoup the loss of it?
And to what extent do the Unionists (with Great Britain) members in Parliament represent an entrenched loyalty to continued alliance with the British economy?
As I understand it, there are a lot more perks for Northern Ireland as part of the UK than if they joined the south. For one thing, a much more robust social safety net.
ReplyDeleteOn Britain's part, the six Ulster counties are a financial drain.
As Jim said previously, religious identity matters less than it used to. Seems like it's mainly about finances.
I wonder what perks would come from the EU if the North stayed in? and the UK left.
DeleteDo you mean if the North and the UK divorced, but the North and the South didn't marry, and both remained in the EU? Seems to me that would solve the border problem. But maybe the North doesn't have the economic wherewithal to stand on its own. Would the North and South ever consider a marriage of convenience?
DeleteLet's not forget the wee Scots if we are going to speculate. In a poll out this weekend 63% said they expect to see Scotland out of Great Britain within five years. (The poll was sponsored by a separatist group but has credibility.) Scottish independence lost pretty decisively, 55-45% in a 2014 referendum, but that was preceded from promises by Westminster that a lot of Scots don't think were kept. The Scots voted against Brexit, and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has kept up a barrage of criticism of Mrs. May's efforts to achieve it. Sturgeon most recently has been muttering about maybe a do-over of the Brexit vote, but she has said all along that Scotland should do (or undo) what it takes to stay in the EU. A Scotland-Northern Ireland union would be like old home week in Belfast.
ReplyDeleteMaybe the Scotch-Irish in Appalachia would return to join them!
DeleteMy mother's ancestors were Scotch Irish from County Down. They were said to have come originally from the Isle of Skye. So a Scotland-Northern Ireland union doesn't really sound so far-fetched.
DeleteJim Webb (Reagan's Navy secretary, briefly Democratic presidential hopeful in '16) wrote a book of praise for the Scotch-Irish in Appaachia. Among the mighty deeds he recounts is a guy who trudged 100 miles, or maybe 200 (I don't remember for sure; maybe the 200 is round trip) through the trackless wilderness to kill a guy who needed it.
DeleteMy great, great grandfather was Church of Ireland from Co. Monaghan. He landed in New Orleans, moved to St. Louis, met and married one Bridget Flaherty … and poped. I'm sure she probably said "my way or no way" to the religion matter. It wasn't important to him then and most likely isn't important to most of the Irish on either side of the border now.
DeleteTom et al: Today's NYTimes "Sunday Review" has a piece about the Irish border by Patrick Radden Keefe, the author of "Say Nothing".
ReplyDeleteHe thinks trouble could easily return: "The Irish Border Is a Scar." He mentions several recent incidents as well as pointing out that in some places the agreement has produced a "cold peace," and the fact that Northern Ireland doesn't have a functioning government. He takes a gut punch to the British ruling class's ignorance of Ireland, then and now.
Here: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/30/opinion/sunday/northern-ireland-brexit.html
I was just about to point that out. My mill grinds slowly and is creaky, but I did find the Keefe piece a few minutes ago and thought it was worth passing along. You beat me to it.
DeleteI was afraid the NYTimes didn't get delivered to Florida! OH wait! you get it on-line...furgootabout that.
DeleteDid you read Douthat? I've been wondering about what Mulvaney is really up to. Now maybe we know that half of it. Off subject: Who's working on an in-depth story about these renegade Catholics? Mulvaney, Ryan, Kavanaugh, etc..... maybe they're spiritual but not religious.
Douthat:
Deletehttps://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/30/opinion/trump-obamacare-mulvaney.html
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Delete(Try again): Margaret, I read Young Douthat this morning and couldn't wrap my head around his two-Trump-presidencies theory, except that the first one seems almost normal in comparison to what it seemed at the time. (So I am suspicious of it.) The second Trump presidency, with Mick Mulvaney as its reigning guru (how quickly we forgot Steve Bannon) seems to be what Young Douthat thinks is happening now. Of course, if Trump finds out Mulvaney is thought to be running the White House, he'll fire Mulvaney. Maybe that is what Douthat is up to. As for Mulvaney, he used to ride with Chris Kobach and Sam Brownback on the "it's not grape, it's cherry Kool Aid, so we can drink it" circuit. Expect deficits, although the first Trump presidency gave us a deficits that even Lincoln (he was a Republican; bet you didn't know that) never could have run up.
DeleteA lot of people think so. We'll see.
Bottom line: I think Douthat is gasping for air and Mulvaney is what he has always been.
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DeleteHere's a piece on DUP voters:
ReplyDelete'I don't see them bending': "DUP voters back its Brexit resolve Opposition to May’s deal is all about the backstop, say those in party’s Northern Irish heartlands"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/31/i-dont-see-them-bending-dup-voters-back-its-brexit-resolve
Nixit...All four indicative votes, and effort to identify common ground, lost in the House of Commons this evening. Unless something intrudes, many officials, especially in the EU, are expecting that there will be a hard Brexit, i.e., crashing out with no agreement. Super Gridlock!!!
ReplyDeleteThis is not good for anyone, especially the English, the Irish, the Scottish, and the EU. And perhaps for the rest of the economies of the world.