Workers and their families should be made secure against unemployment, sickness, accident, old age, and death. Individuals have the first—but not the sole—responsibility to secure their future. Personal savings and private pensions are two important elements in achieving that security.
-- United States Conference of Catholic Bishops, A Commitment to All Generations: Social Security and the Common GoodAs Catholics, are the following financial news items anything we should care about? Within the last six trading days:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 600 points a week ago today when the Fed chairman indicated that interest rates may not be going up much farther
- The Dow jumped another 300 points on Monday, on initial news that the US and China had agreed to ratchet down their trade war
- Yesterday, the Dow gave back those gains in reaction to adverse news on an interest-rate indicator called the yield curve which may be signaling a coming recession, coupled with reports that the US-China trade deal may not get done, with the president tweeting, "I am a Tariff Man".
In a recent comment here at NewGathering, Katherine recalled the turn of the century/millenium, when the dotCom bubble burst:
People approaching retirement age took a big hit. Some people lost a big chunk of their 401k. I lost some, but being pretty risk-averse I had stayed out of the high-roller funds. What was worse was that the company froze their defined pension fund. What was already there was safe, but no new contributions from either the company or the employee were allowed. And no new people were allowed into the fund. Bottom line, the income from that is about half what it would have been had they continued to fund it. I guess one has to look at it as a glass half full! Now of course when you say "pension", people my kids' age and younger look at you and say, "What's that?"Katherine's story is not too different than what other contemporary workers have experienced, including me: an employer has transitioned its workforce from a pension plan to a 401(k). In doing so, employers have transferred a ton of risk to their employees. Off the top of my head:
- Some employees neglect to opt in to their company's 401(k) plan at all. I see this especially among twenty-something employees, for whom retirement is this nebulous thing so far in the future that it's not real to them, and who probably are earning relatively low wages and believe they need every penny that comes in on their paychecks to pay for their car, their apartment, their student loan debts etc.
- Some employees join the 401(k) plan but, for the same reasons that others don't join at all, they don't contribute enough. This is particularly pernicious because the company's contribution typically is set to match the employee's contribution (up to a ceiling of, say, 5% of the employee's paycheck). If an employee elects to contribute 2%, the company will match it with another 2% (or a lesser amount; a lot of employers don't match dollar-for-dollar but match, say, 50 cents of the employee's dollar), If it turns out that the employee should have been contributing 5% instead of 2% in order to have enough saved for retirement, the employee is the one who is out of luck at retirement time
- Some employees don't wait until retirement, but draw money out of their 401(k)s while they're still working. The employee is supposed to pay it back - it's like a loan - but they might not.
- Some employees make unwise investment decisions with their 401(k) accounts. If your investments don't earn the rate of return you need - again, you're out of luck at retirement time
I've had a 401(k) account for something like 25 years now. I've always contributed the maximum amount that is eligible for the employer match. (Prior to that, I had pension funds, which I've rolled into other investment funds when given the opportunity.) I'm 57, and all I can tell you is: I can't retire today. I need to keep working, probably for at least 10 more years (and at my age, that's a risky proposition in itself) to have enough saved to be able to retire without feeling too much of a pinch.
So how did this all happen - that we ended up with 401(k)s rather than pensions? I'm not much for conspiracy theories, but I really do blame big business, in cahoots with Congress, for this one:
years ago, employers persuaded Congress to relax the rules to allow them to use their overfunded pension plans to help cover other benefits, such as retiree health plans and early-retirement buyouts (which preserved cash the companies would otherwise have used to pay for both). Although that might have sounded like a good idea at the time, it essentially allowed companies such as Verizon and General Motors to use pension assets to finance corporate downsizings ...Separately, changes to accounting rules required companies to disclose future pension and retiree-health-plan obligations on their balance sheets. On the surface, the changes seemed a step toward greater transparency. But the new rules had a perverse effect: Cutting future retiree benefits improved a company's bottom line, which in turn increased executive pay tied to corporate earnings.So what can be done? I'm afraid I'm not optimistic. Saving for retirement with a 401(k) is one of a number of fundamentally unequal economic relationships and transactions to which individuals are subject: even if I am inclined to criticize what my current employer is offering, it has the financial professionals and lawyers and Congress on its side, while I have neither power nor expertise in investing and saving for retirement. My options are to take what's offered, not take what's offered, or go find another job somewhere else. Unless we rediscover the virtue of solidarity, and infuse it into workers, I think we're stuck.
Jim, I don't want you to worry about the daily, weekly or even monthly gyrations of the stock market. I don't believe it is written in the stars that "in the long run" the market will always go up. But that has been true. Generally. So far.
ReplyDeleteFor the individual, though, it can be a problem if the market happens to tank the day you get your gold Seiko. I recall the dot com bubble well. A woman in our department found out her brother was getting rich with the likes of DrKoop.com (remember that?), cashed in her 401k and quit her job to become a day trader. She left laughing at us work slaves. Last I heard she was looking for a man who could support her. On the other hand, my 401k took a slight dip but came back nicely. Like Katherine, though, I was conservative. Because I was conservative, I have not been making out like a casino through the long, slow Obama recovery, but I have been taking out a little more than my minimum mandatory (which you have to take out starting at age 72.5), and I am not much behind where I was when I retired. It is good to remember, though, that your 401(k) money still has to sit somewhere when you retire, and if you don't believe in mattresses, where it sits will be affected by the stock and bond markets.
I got my 401(k) fairly late in life. Yours will be much fatter. Which means your retirement will be more market dependent than mine. I also have a pension which, plus Social Security, is my main source of income. For me, the 401(k) is an added extra that covers uncovered medical expenses, auto repairs and roof replacements.
If I were you, though, I would worry less about the 401(k) and more about your favorite party. The unspoken -- although both Paul Ryan and Addison Mitchell McConnell said it clearly without attracting attention (they should have tweeted) -- assumption of the GOP is that the deficits, which are growing like cancer, will be paid for by "privatizing" Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid. Your 401(k) is, in effect, privatized Social Security. It won't be long before you hear that people like you don't need "government retirement insurance" because you are all set in the private market. How they are going to explain abolishing Medicare I can't conceive. The amount of time and money (even with Medicare) that you will put into staying well or dealing with the illnesses of old age are totally beyond your ken today. At least I never imagined spending more on co-pays than on gasoline before I started doing it. Not to mention more time at the doctors' than at the library.
For a few years after retirement, though, we were almost rich.
Jim, you are right that to a lot of young people (including us when we were young) retirement seems so far in the future that it isn't really on their radar. I'm more worried about our kids than about us. The PTB are doing a not so subliminal suggestion, that "Social Security isn't going to be there for you when you reach retirement age." But meanwhile life's normal expenses keep happening, and there's no way the younger generations can put away the amount of money they would need to.
ReplyDeleteAnd there have been a lot of ideas floated about allowing people to tap into their 401ks without penalty for things such as natural disasters, education, medical expenses, etc. Which I think is a bad idea, especially if SS is in the crosshairs.
Jim, as I noted in my comments on your previous thread, neither my husband nor I ever worked for a company with a pension plan. So our retirement savings is 100% in the stock market. You are still young, and it is doubtful that anything happening now will be a long-term hit on your retirement investments. I never worried, even after 2008 because we had enough time for the market to recover. And it did.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I am 70 and my husband just turned 78. Losing significant value in our holdings could be a problem because we may not have a decade or more for the market to recover and our expenses may grow during the next decade. I pray that neither of us ever need assisted living or Alheimers' care. I am moving more into cash, but still keeping most of our retirement accounts in stocks (I do the investing in our family). Like Tom and Katherine, I am a conservative investor, and many of the stocks we hold are solid and boring old-timers that pay a good dividend. You could still safely invest in some of the growth stocks for the long run because you have a number of years ahead of you. Unless you take early retirement. My husband retired from full-time when he was about 71, and worked part-time for another 3 or so years. I retired at 67. He didn't collect SS until he was over 70 1/2 and I didn't switch to my own SS until thi year because it was growing at a guaranteed 8% a year. After 70 1/2 you don't get that benefit anymore. From 66 to this year I drew SS based on my husband's. I get more now from my own because I deferred it for several years.
Since my field is (was) economics, I too like to read economic news. The gyrations in the stock market are more closely tied to the trade war's ever changing news than to interest rates - at least at this point. The yield curve has been flattening for months now. Will it continue? A negative (inverted) yield curve is usually a recession warning.
Stay tuned! But you are young, so as Tom advised, tune the movements of the stock market out for now and don't panic and sell everything if it goes down sharply for a year or two or four or.
PBS's News Hour is running a series on "Work," which looks at job trends and demographics, who will be losers and winners. The Nightly Business Report also often reports on this type of thing. I find it interesting, but moot to our situation.
ReplyDeleteBesides the changing nature of the employer-employee relationship, changing job trends, and the demise of solidarity of workers, I think climate change is a huge wildcard.
Places that are bustling now could go bust in a few decades if they are prone to increasingly severe storms, floods, loss of coast line, and changes to the water supply. Disasters can wipe out your savings if you have to start over.
Infrastructure, and the states' or fed's willingness to invest in it will be another wildcard. Business is attracted to areas that facilitate travel.
And, finally, environmental disasters, which may be related to climate change and infrastructure, will affect prosperity.
It's not looking good for workers in Michigan: Algae blooms are being predicted for all the Great Lakes as the climate warms. Our infrastructure is shot and will get worse due to weather extremes. And, just as the Flint water crisis is clearing up, widespread PFAS contamination is being discovered.
If young people are looking at us in puzzlement over the word "pension," they are certainly tuned in to the way future trends will affect their work.
Michigan will become a leading producer of bananas and deadly black tarantulas. Daylight come. Florida will be a great place for divers.
DeleteThe NewsHour had a story on how Pikeville in Eastern Kentucky was staging an economic comeback around a hospital treating unemployed coal miners and their families. The hospital runs on Medicare and Medicaid. Two of Washington's leading exponents of "privatizing," i.e, killing those programs are Kentucky's two senators, both of whom do very, very well in eastern Kentucky. Go figure.
To make my points more directly applicable to Jim's topic: A worker's ability to save will be affected by more than wage levels, employee benefits, and self-discipline.
DeleteRaber and I have seen how layoffs and an unexpected pregnancy can wipe out years of disciplined savings and thrifty living.
Our Young People have the same (or worse) risks re job and family stability. But their ability to save will also be threatened by climate, infrastructure, and environmental threats--regional food shortages that raise costs, failing water systems that mean higher taxes, or extra health costs from environmental problems.
If Michigan becomes the nation's new Banana Belt, get me a one-way ticket to Hudson Bay.
Ah, Hudson Bay. Mangos and bananas you can pick right off the tree.
DeleteThe 4th National Climate Assessment breaks expected climate changes down by region. This webpage summarizes it.
Deletehttps://grist.org/article/we-broke-down-what-climate-change-will-do-region-by-region/
I think I'll stick with the Northeast, at least the part the frackers don't ruin.
Stanley, I checked. (Good rundown, by the way). I noticed this:
Delete“I think it’s really important to look at the heat-related impacts on labor productivity,” says chapter author Kirstin Dow, a social environmental geographer at the University of South Carolina. Under one scenario, the Southeast could see losses of 570 million labor hours, amounting to about $47 billion per year — one-third of the nation’s total loss. What’s more, Dow says, “Those changes are going to take place in counties where there’s already chronic poverty.”
Hee-hee, we already done took care of that. All our work is done by illegal Central Americans, who are the reason we voted for Trump (who gets his legally from Eastern Europe, where he heard they are white).
We don't do nuthin', so we won't lose nuthin'.