Thursday, February 15, 2018

'Useful idiot' at best


 You may be too young to remember the once famous magazine advertisements by the Philadelphia Bulletin of happy memory. The ads showed a crowd.  In the background an airplane was crashing or a tall  building was burning. One little guy in a black suit was jumping up and down, shouting and pointing at the unfolding disaster, but everyone else had his nose in the newspaper. The caption was: “In Philadelphia, nearly everyone reads the Bulletin.”

 That’s how it looks to me now, with Lt. Gen. James Clapper, the former National Intelligence Director in the role of the guy in the black suit. Russia is disrupting the country with propaganda, and the all eyes are on Twitter.  Clapper’s successor, Dan Coats, testified this week that Russia deemed its efforts during the 2016 presidential campaign “successful.” That would be news if the media covered it instead of taking Donald J. Trump on his own terms and covering the circus.

 But if it is true, the President of the United States is an unwitting or witting stooge of Vladimir Putin. If he is unwitting, he is what Vladimir Lenin termed a “useful idiot.” If he is witting, there is not a whole helluva lot we can do about it.


 The Russian goal in 2016, and in their ongoing (yes) hacking and bots, was not to elect a president. That was gravy. The goal was to weaken the United States in the world by spreading disregard and disdain for its government and democracy and by pitting Americans against each other. Thus, for example, when #Black Lives Matter became a social media event, the Russians supported it with email and tweets that made the black folks look like they wanted white scalps and encouraged the white folks to arm themselves to fight back. The idea wasn’t to help one side win.  It was to make the United States into Nixon's “a pitiful, helpless giant."

 So the Russians spread doubts about the honesty of news media. Trump is aboard with that. It encouraged suspicion of the intelligence agencies. Trump is a cheerleader for that. It sought to cripple  government agencies. Trump spun revolving doors. The Russian oligarchs, who have occasional trouble themselves with our courts, want our courts to be seen as tools of the rich. Trump dutifully has attacked the courts when he isn’t staffing them with law school graduates who never set foot in a courtroom. And he is undoing everything Obama did, proving, as the Russians wanted to prove, that the United States has no principles, just swindles.

The Russian bot-makers' latest contribution was to support the #Release the Memo campaign; they may even have thought it up. The “memo” is the fatally flawed Re. Devin Nunes memo about how Trump haters in the FBI misused the secret intelligence court. True to form, Trump released it.

 In other words, he is the president Putin could only dream of in 2016. Plus, he takes Putin’s word for it.

 Oh, yeah, but as Mike Pence, that font of sound government thinking, said, our intelligence agencies found the Russians did not succeed in 2016. Isn’t that what you heard? On NPR’s Morning Edition today, Gen. Clapper gently corrected Pence. The agencies did not find evidence that the Russians interfered with the vote tallies. But they couldn’t prove they didn’t. And didn’t even try – because it’s way outside their competence – to determine if and how hundreds of thousands of fake emails and tweets on social media influenced how individual people voted.

Coats said: "We expect Russia to continue using propaganda social media, false flag personas, sympathetic spokesmen and other means to influence to try to build on its wide range of operations and exacerbate social and political fissures in the United States. There should be no doubt that Russia perceives that its past efforts as successful and views the 2018 US midterm elections as a potential target for Russian influence operations."

 There is plenty of doubt.being generated by, among other sources, the president and all the president’s men.

38 comments:

  1. And as Rance Priebus, former White House chief of staff, now says, “Take everything you’ve heard and multiply it by 50.” What number would General Kelly, the current occupant of that office, offer--100?

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/14/us/politics/riding-an-untamed-horse-priebus-opens-up-on-serving-trump.html

    ReplyDelete
  2. Priebus's Vanity Fair tell all (that he can remember):

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/02/reince-priebus-opens-up-about-his-six-months-of-magical-thinking

    ReplyDelete
  3. BTW I am old enough to remember that ad. Forgot all about it. I have a genuine Bulletin news stand bench that I fondly keep. Reminds me of a golden time when I didn't know Trump existed.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Tom - seems those ads can be bought and sold on eBay.

    https://www.ebay.com/itm/1942-Philadelphia-Bulletin-AD-BY-RICHARD-DECKER-nearly-everyone-reads-AD-/122958373919

    A couple of miscellaneous thoughts:

    * Probably I've seen "The Manchurian Candidate" a few too many times, but I'd think that Russian attempts to weaken democracy aren't new; what's new is leveraging social media and using bots.

    * If we are doing the same in the other direction, is that cricket? In other words, is the objection that it's being done, or that it's being done to us? FWIW, I've often wondered whether, if our enemies flew drones into our airspace to drop bombs on our buildings, we'd wish to rethink our drone policies.

    * Granted that our intelligence chiefs are right, or that they're underestimating the true scale of Russian activity: what is to be done? If Twitter and Facebook are being exploited, it's probably up to those firms' internal security groups to regulate the content and activity. I suppose they're willing to cooperate at least to some extent with the federal government, but it's probably complicated legally, and potentially politically fraught.

    * It's worth noting that Donald Trump didn't invent sowing distrust in the "lamestream media"; it's just that, until now, Fox News never had one of its own (at least spiritually one of its own) in the White House. As for distrust of intelligence agencies, that has been a bipartisan pastime during my lifetime, and I consider a certain amount of it healthy. That the courts are the tools of the rich is a staple of liberal populist rhetoric; what is new these days is that Trump went out and invented (or rediscovered) conservative populism. And distrust of government agencies probably was the core of Ronald Reagan's political appeal. If the Russians are weakening the ligaments of our democracy (a claim about which I'm skeptical), Trump may be a useful idiot, but he didn't originate what the Russians are exploiting.

    I guess I would add, having read about the dueling DREAMer bills both crashing and burning yesterday in the Senate, that even a useful idiot needs to have a certain amount of basic competency to be truly useful; whereas one of Trump's recurring characteristics as president is going on Twitter to submarine whatever his own party is trying to get done in Congress. Maybe he's a useless idiot. I've read that the Russians have been reaching that conclusion, too.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What if Trump has succeeded in sending the undocumented "children" back." No Bill! The Supreme Court overturns lower courts stays of Trump's undoing of Obama's executive order. And then? They all meekly go? Doubt it.

      Delete
    2. Jim, Every country does propaganda. Even when crusty old John Adams said we don't go abroad seeking dragons to slay (and meant it), he was doing propaganda. But a few things are different now, especially the amount of bang you can get on social media for very few bucks. We didn't invent social media propaganda, we are not countering it, and we can't counter it as long as a useful idiot of V. Putin takes the whole concept as a personal insult.

      Dealing with it would require an informed electorate. But our electorate is learning from Fox News and other biased sources, Russian bots and the Useful Idiot that all forms of good information have a liberal bias. The knuckleheads who bought into that and are parading around in their "Trump 2020" T-shirts don't deserve the republic they are losing.

      Delete
    3. Margaret - no, I don't think they will meekly go. Trump has telegraphed that he's not very interested in enforcing the deportations - but his policy on any given question, famously is determined by whoever gets to him last.

      For the sake of discussion, let's say it plays out this way: the Trump Administration has an official policy of deporting Dreamers, but in fact it does little to pursue it. It seems to me that is a picture in miniature of our entire immigration situation at the moment: the laws says one thing; the reality on the ground is completely different; many people, especially those with a stake in the status quo, wink and nod at the law; and a minority is perpetually foaming at the mouth about the winking and nodding. (And another minority just wants to open the borders.)

      So we'd have succeeded in aligning dysfunction regarding the Dreamers with the dysfunction of the immigration issue overall.

      Delete
    4. Jim..For your dream solution to work, we'd have to get rid of Kirjsten Nielsen, head of homeland security, ten deputies reporting to her, hundred of ICE agents, and contractors and their detention centers, etc. Of course, just getting rid of Trump might do it.

      The winking and nodding rests on lax enforcement, no employment checks, and sanctuary cities, counties, and states. It depends on a degree of "lawlessness," that is going to look like South Africa, Ukraine, and Pakistan. On the other hand, maybe it would simply be a form of jury nullification.

      Delete
  5. One way to understand the relationship between Congressional Republicans and Donald Trump is that the GOP leadership has been hoping that Trump will be useful. An examination of Trump's achievements so far would lead one to conclude that, despite his, er, distinctive brand of politics, most of what has gotten done is mainstream conservative policy: tax cuts, Supreme Court justice and other judicial appointments, weakening Obamacare, rolling back Obama-era regulations, and so on.

    But as I noted at the tail end of my previous comment, Trump is a recalcitrant marionette. A tamer idiot in the White House presumably would be even more useful to Ryan, McConnell and Co.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Here is where the idea of Trump as Ryan's useful idiot fails: In one, stinking night, the Republican Congress plunged the country deeper into debt than Clinton and Obama were able to do in 16 years. If the Republicans ever stood for anything, they stood for paying for what you vote for.

      Now all they stand for is the 2nd Amendment and the heroic kids in Broward County who died for their freedom to be armed and dangerous.

      Delete
    2. Tom - doesn't that event show that Trump as Ryan's useful idiot succeeds? I don't think Ryan opposed the tax plan, I think he was one of the biggest cheerleaders.

      Delete
    3. If you believe Paul Krugman, Ryan doesn't know what he's talking about, didn't back then and still doesn't. An idiot's idiot?

      Delete
    4. Yes, and I believe Krugman. But Ryan is Speaker of a House full of former deficit hawks who all became deficit pedestrians because their president, having screwed up everything else they tried, needed desperately to have a big win before his first year was up. And Ryan needed a win almost as badly after screwing up repeal-and-replace (remember?).

      That is not a Republican budget; it was a throw-in-the-husks stew that even the D's wouldn't object to.

      The only senator with the courage of his convictions was Rand Paul. Even Tailgunner Ted swallowed his most earnest beliefs and fell deep into Republican sin. A couple outliers in the House stood their ground. The rest went along with the needs of the pudgy guy who is about to be back down here at the National Trust's mansion.

      Delete
  6. I don't see Trump as a Putin puppet. I think Trump is just disengaged with the world at large. He is, at heart, a real estate magnate (who has been bankrupted a few times, so not very savvy), but is canny about self-promotion and workinthe system, so remains rich enough to surround himself with yes-men who prop up his view of himself.

    The GOP finds him useful in appealing to the party's xenophobes, anti-feminists, NRA proponents, racists, prosperity gospel Christians, and people who are just generally pissed off because they aren't rich and famous.

    If he's a useful idiot, he's useful to the GOP--at least for now.

    Putin is likely happy about Trump if he wants to throw the U.S. into disarray. And the use of Russian boots to manipulate social media and opinion to rile people up is concerning. Ditto their election meddling.

    But I think we are our own worst enemy.

    ReplyDelete
  7. One of the many theories is that the Russkies really expected Hillary to win and only wanted to weaken her position. Now we have the doomsday clock set at 2 to midnight and I'm not sure Putin wanted that. But maximizing chaos seems to be their goal and the world seems to be generally run by aggressive psychopathic hot shots. Maybe Putin's not afraid of the doomsday clock either. But, if Kim lobs a nuke into the US, even if it only hits Possum Shit, Nebraska, it will be answered by several 100kT nukes precisely delivered to North Korea. Then, how China reacts will determine if the nuclear war goes global.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This news item from today, that the Mueller special investigation has indicted a dozen or so Russians who seemingly masterminded the whole disinformation campaign, would support your view, Stanley, that they made the same assumption the rest of the world did, and were looking to weaken Hillary.

      "By February 2016, the suspects had decided whom they were supporting in the 2016 race. According to the indictment, Internet Research Agency specialists were instructed to “use any opportunity to criticize Hillary and the rest (except Sanders and Trump — we support them.)”"

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/russian-troll-farm-13-suspects-indicted-for-interference-in-us-election/2018/02/16/2504de5e-1342-11e8-9570-29c9830535e5_story.html?utm_term=.28723fe86b50&wpisrc=al_news__alert-politics--alert-national&wpmk=1

      Delete
    2. "Possum Shit, Nebraska", Stanley, that's my town! It wouldn't be the first time a town in Nebraska got bombed.

      Delete
    3. Wow. I didn't know about that piece of history, Katherine. If I knew it was a sensitive topic, I would have used another state like Kansas. But Nebraska sounds more poetic on the ears.
      Several years ago, in my place of work, some Explosive Ordnance Disposal guys, for some reason, managed to explode an item and a piece of metal went through the roof of a house a half mile away, killing a cat asleep in bed. 15 minutes before, the young daughter had been lying in the same bed. Don't move near a military base.

      Delete
    4. Don't worry, Stanley, it's not a sensitive topic. Happened before my time, and nobody got hurt. Just an interesting piece of trivia. Just thought "Possum Shit, NE" was funny! Really not my town, though we do have some interesting names. There's a Worms, and a Colon, not to mention Beaver City.

      Delete
    5. Katherine, PA has some beauts. Intercourse, Jersey Shore. Frackville would be even funnier if it were unfortunate enough to be situated on the frackable Marcellus Shale.

      Delete
  8. There are idiot and then there's the idiotic.

    Yesterday (Thursday) in the midst of the immigration blow-out, there was a phone call from a unnamed White House Aide attacking one of the bills and attacking Lindsey Graham. Subsequently, Graham retorted by naming the aide, Stephen Miller a native xenophobe.

    I am of two minds: they are all idiots doing what they want to do, or think they must do to get re-elected. On the other hand, Graham is proving more feisty than I would have expected. Is his attack on Miller, the beginning of a Republican congressional push-back on Trump's failure to govern and his outsourcing to dangerous idiots? Or is it nothing much?

    NY Times:

    "In a conference call with reporters before voting began, a senior White House official lashed out at Mr. Graham. Speaking only on the condition of anonymity despite repeated requests to be on the record, the official accused Mr. Graham of attacking homeland security officials and standing in the way of needed immigration changes.

    “Senator Graham has been an obstacle for those reforms,” the official said.

    "The official accused Mr. Graham of misleading other senators, including Democrats, about the damage the proposal would do, and said that Democrats should not let “Lindsey Graham dictate what Democrat senators ought to do.”

    "On Capitol Hill, Mr. Graham took aim at Stephen Miller, a top White House aide and an immigration hard-liner. “As long as the president allows Steve Miller and others to run the show down there, we’re never going to get anywhere,” he said."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/15/us/politics/immigration-senate-dreamers.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "a native Xenophobe" is me not Graham.

      Delete
    2. Who elected Stephen Miller? At least Mick Mulvaney, the popcorn bowl impersonating an economist, was elected as a Teapot by voters in a South Carolina congressional district.

      Delete
    3. Wasn't he Bannon's sidekick. He's just more cunning in lasting longer than Bannon. He seems to channel Trump's worst impulses and he doesn't change his mind or contradict himself. They've kept him off the Sunday circuit; he's mean looking, he sneers, and dare I say it: I think he's the real fascist in the White House. Was his "no attribution" attack on the immigration bills and on Graham free-lancing?

      Delete
    4. I heard a news report yesterday that Bannon just have 20 hours of testimony to the Mueller investigation and answered all questions, so I assume he has now exacted (or is continuing to exact) his revenge for getting fired twice, once by the White House and once by Breitbart News.

      Graham and his pal McCain aren't bosom buddies of Donald Trump. My interpretation of that NY Times quote is that Graham was one of a bipartisan group of senators that supported the more moderate bill. Trump, McConnell and Grassley supported a more hard-line bill. Both failed to get 60 votes. I don't think Trump's plan even got a bare majority.

      I also think the Trump measure would have stood a better chance of getting approval in the House than the more moderate bipartisan bill.

      Another missed opportunity. But now Democrats can claim that Republicans don't want the Dreamers, and Republicans can claim that Democrats are more interested in keeping the controversy stoked for election purposes than in actually helping the Dreamers. And by the way, there is an election in November, with control of the House and possibly the Senate very much up for grabs. So maybe this was the wished-for outcome after all.

      Delete
    5. What was the "missed opportunity"? The Trump bill was another throw-in-the-husks thingie where nobody had to give up anything and nobody had to think past tomorrow. The "bipartisan compromise" was only, by its drafters' admission, half an immigration bill.

      An "opportunity" would require someone to explain the facts of life to the pudgy guy and require the pudgy guy to stay on task until completion. Neither of which is likely to happen before 2020.

      Delete
    6. I should have added that if there is a brain (doubtful) behind Ryan's spending like a drunken Democrat, it is that he will now use endless deficits to rid the republic of Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security on grounds we can't support them. Some of his best friends defend his defection to the dark side on the basis of such a brilliant bait-and-switch. I don't buy it.

      Delete
    7. I could be wrong! But sooner rather than later there will be a labor shortage. Not enough truck drivers to drive the lettuce from California and the pigs from North Carolina. Not enough construction workers, plumbers, electricians, sheet metal workers, ad infinitum.

      Master builder Trump will shrug and let illegal immigration continue. Maybe Stephen Miller will step in!

      Delete
    8. Margaret, the same thought occurred to me about a labor shortage. As soon as it affects the bottom line of some of the business interests that supported Trump, I predict we will see some "exceptions" made to the hard line immigration policies. Unfortunately I also predict that these exceptions may be another deja vu, such as bringing back the Bracero program they had back in the day. They will let people come in to work, but won't let them bring family, because "chain immigration".

      Delete
    9. I think Stephen Miller is a double for Kylo Ren.

      Delete
    10. This article by Caitlin Huey-Burns of Real Clear Politics analyzes the complex of competing agendas in the Senate on yesterday's Dreamer immigration votes. None of the votes was purely straight party line. Hardliners like Ted Cruz voted against all of them because anything that smells of amnesty doesn't work for him. At least three Democratic incumbents who have to run for reelection this year in states Trump won supported the Trump measure. Marco Rubio, who once thought that being out in front on bipartisan immigration reform would pave his path to the White House, voted against the bipartisan compromise measure. Some Democrats voted against anything that would have any funding whatever for the wall. The upshot - and stop me if you've heard this before - is that it will be very difficult to get to a bipartisan compromise on immigration.

      https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/02/16/senate_votes_underscore_immigration_litmus_tests.html

      Delete
  9. "What was the "missed opportunity"?"

    A path to citizenship for 1.8 million Dreamers is not nothing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yah, but let's not forget that Trump manufactured the Dreamer crisis by overturning DACA.

      He can argue that the Democrats are throwing Dreamers under the bus in order not to let him have his wall, but he's the one who put the Dreamers in this position.

      Delete
    2. When Trump doubled the number of Dreamers -- by including the ones the alleged adult Gen. Kelly said wouldn't get off their asses -- he made it impossible for the GOP Bigot Caucus in the House. There never was an opportunity for that.

      Delete
    3. And there's this. The Freedom Caucus seem to be a shadowy group which exercises an outsize influence, intimidating people like Ryan, whom they apparently consider squishy. I'm not even sure who they all are. Hope the Dems are putting a lot of effort into defeating any of them coming up for re-election.

      Delete
    4. Nothing shadowy about the Freedom Caucus. It's made up of members of the House, most of whom sipped the Tea Party and get their news from tawk radio. It has about 30 members led by a North Carolina representative who tries to sound unyieldingly reasonable but says what you would expect. Some shadowy groups may buy the Scotch for the caucus's evening meetings, but, as a group, the member are perfectly able to be crazy without outside help. Whenever Ryan says "up," they say "down." They are loyal party members, they just happen to be more Republican than the Republican speaker.

      Mick Mulvaney, the popcorn bowl masquerading as an economist, was one of the founders. I looked it up, and sure enough, Louie Gohmert of Texas is a member. As long as Louie is there, no one will succeed to the title of the Dumbest Member of the House. While checking, I saw that Ted Yoho of Florida, who made a strong run at Louie's title (but failed) is also a member.

      Delete