Harvey has spawned the second 1-in-500 year rainfall in
the same region in 17 years. It cranked up from a tropical depression to a CAT4 in only 48 hours. The Gulf temperatures were several degrees
above normal and hurricanes and lesser storms are thermal engines. Post-Harvey is
almost like a monstrous animal
that returns to the Gulf to ingest more energy and moisture only to return to
the mainland to inflict more damage. It’s
not only climate change but our lack of adaption and even counter
adaption that is scary. Houston has been growing (add the Katrina refugees),
paving over more prairie which worsens flooding, planning for a climate
(statistical weather) that no longer exists.
Uniformitarianism is baloney. I
think Houston can continue to exist. I
think even New Orleans can continue to exist. But that means thinking up new solutions and departing from old habits.
Perhaps the solution is to go radically vertical, something like the
late architect Paolo Soleri conceived with his arcology. Perhaps large monolithic domes (crenospheres)
with people living on the dome instead of inside, with stores and industry on the
inside. What it really means is bringing
everyone to the table with ideas and compromises. Or, we can keep doing the SOS. Some Europeans adapted to the Little Ice Age,
some didn’t. The difference it made was
famine and social unrest. We have the
advantage of predictive science. Let’s take
advantage of it. 
Does Texas's political culture make planning ahead likely? Its tough guy, go-it-alone attitude seems to invite lack of forethought and planning. Just the viewpoint and prejudices of a Northener?
ReplyDeleteNortherner.
DeleteMargaret, remember that after superstorm Sandy, the Texas congressional delegation raised a fuss about bailing out you damn New Yukkers with American tax dollars.
DeleteNew Yukkers are suckers for down and outers! I bet the citizens of NYC have already sent more relief money to the Red Cross and Catholic Charities than the Texas State Government budgeted for storm sewers!
DeleteYes, Margaret, in a catastrophe, even Texans start to help each other. I think they even promised that anybody seeking shelter would not be checked for documentation. I hope this spike of collective humanitarianism leaves a useful afterglow. I think it's great that the Mexicans are offering help for Houston but not the Great Wall.
DeleteWell, Stanley, there is your view. And then there is the view of the majority party in the United States and its orange-haired leader, summed up perfectly (tongue in cheek) by Charles P. Pierce: "Those Chinese hoaxsters are really, really good at their jobs."
ReplyDeleteAnd then, of course, there is Texas which just deputized all of its law enforcement officers (including Joe Arpaio presumably since there is nothing against him since Friday) to act like G-men in the likely event they see someone looking suspiciously like an Hispanic.
And for a trifecta, Houston, which didn't have zoning codes last time I was there, has enough standing and sitting gunk to wash into the Gulf to kill aquatic life for a hundred years. Yeah, you have to say the kids really trashed the playroom this time.
I was amazed to read that Houston is the fourth largest city in the U.S. with 6.8 million people. Did they all move there for the lousy jobs that the anti-union, anti-welfare, anti-zoning state government promotes?
ReplyDeleteAs for NYC...The "outer" boroughs: Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx all on Long Island, and Staten Islands may all be on something of a "flood plain" themselves, but there are storm sewers. Brooklyn had troubles with Sandy's rising sea waters; rain and continuing rain was less a problem.
But Stanley is right, some out of the box thinking is required. Consult the Dutch! And Stanley!
Houston loves the Federal Flood Insurance Program. Now they'll love it even more.
Deletehttp://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/29/a-storm-made-in-washington-215549
Oh yes, look to the Dutch. You may have seen they're testing models of huge floating, flexible, artificial islands. They're developing food plants that can thrive in the Anthropocene era, or as Bill McKibben calls our new manmade planet, Eaarth.
DeleteHere is what I know for sure about the Federal Flood Insurance Program: If there were any money to be made insuring people against floods, it would not be a government program.
ReplyDeleteI also know that the flood insurance on my officially low-risk property went from the mid $70's per year to the mid $400's after the last reform. I, unlike the officials, read the newspapers and know the low risk is really much higher than it officially is. If my house is severely damaged in a storm, I expect to collect more in federal flood insurance than I will get from my homeowners policy, which costs in the mid-$4,000's a year. I expect that because I read the newspaper.
Everybody wants to live on the water (over beyond the sand dunes), and they can do it as long as the Congress keeps passing bills that "reform" the federal insurance program, but not really. Congress at this very moment (if it were in session) has been working on another "reform," which will go by the boards.
ReplyDeleteRe the politico article, I essentially agree with the author about the dysfunction of the federal flood insurance program. I disagree with the assessment of the climate change attribution as marginal. I'll go with climatologist Kevin Trenberth's assessment of 30% attribution, which is not marginal.
ReplyDeleteHere's a Texas Republican about to be caught in the flood insurance pincer movement.
ReplyDelete'As his state’s largest city is pounded by extreme rain, Rep. Jeb Hensarling is digging in his heels on a conservative vision for overhauling the heavily indebted National Flood Insurance Program, which protects millions from the risk of financial calamity.
"The Texas Republican, who as chairman of the House Financial Services Committee is spearheading efforts to revamp the program before it expires next month, will call on his colleagues to pass his proposal as soon as they return from recess.
"His committee has drafted legislation that would renew the program for five years but also shrink its footprint, make coverage more expensive for policyholders, and ease the pathway for private companies to sell their own flood insurance policies. Opponents say the changes would make coverage less accessible for many homeowners."
Probably Tom Blackburn's premiums in FL will go up, but those in TX will go down, because ye know...they've just had a 500 year flood.
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/28/harvey-flood-insurance-hensarling-hurricane-242114
Some interesting facts about Houston: Harris County, of which Houston is the county seat, voted for Clinton in 2016. The median household income (as of 2015) was $61,465; so a significant number of jobs are not low-paying lousy ones. One of my nieces and her family lives in Houston. Thankfully they have let family know they are safe, they live on relatively high ground. They are in Houston because of well-paying professional jobs. They would like to return to Colorado where they grew up, but so far the opportunity hasn't presented itself. Meanwhile they are doing well in Houston, or at least they were until bazillion gallons of water got dumped on them.
ReplyDeleteMy impression of Texans is that they stick together when the chips are down, despite their contentious politics. One branch of my grandmother's family lived in Dumas, Texas (far north). The Texans I have known (admittedly not that many), are kind and gracious people. I am optimistic about their ability to rise to the challenges ahead.
Used to make business trips to Texas, DFW area. One thing I noticed even 25 years ago: not a lot of native born Texans. I'd imagine there are more like Katherine's niece than originals. Lots of Hispanic names in the reports from Houston, as well. I imagine when they first arrive, they put a high voltage brain zapping helmet on them and they end up like Senator Ted Cruz.
ReplyDeleteTexas in-migrants and Senator Ted Cruz...puts you in mind of "What's Wrong with Kansas." Why do people vote for candidates who don't seen to have their economic or social welfare interests in mind.
ReplyDeleteHere's a piece from "City Lab," about New Orelans, 12 years after Katrina. Obviously not Houston, which generously received evacuees from NO, but when forecasters say recovery is "long term," here in this story are some of the issues Houston will face in the coming decade.
https://www.citylab.com/equity/2017/08/evacuation-to-new-orleans-not-an-option-for-houston/538164/
Have any of you read Climate of Hope, by Michael Bloomberg and Carl Pope? I haven't had a chance to read it yet, so I can't say if it's any good. But it looked like it would be interesting, maybe some practical ideas for dealing with the effects of climate change.
ReplyDeleteNew Orleans, the birthplace of Jazz, rich in multiple cultural influences and a complex history. Glad I visited it, if only for a day. Houston? Lots of white people making lots of money. Necessary, I guess, but sounds boring. I don't know how they'll fare following thus natural catastrophe but no better than NO if the politicians don't respect physics.
ReplyDeleteAs I understand it, flooding has released quite a toxic soup of industrial effluence and sewage down there. It gives me the fantods to see footage of people walking through that water barefoot and in shorts. Waiting for dysentery, toxic cuts, and infectious diseases to hit those shelters.
ReplyDeleteAnd then the black mold and rattlesnakes will infest the homes that were flooded out.
I would like to know more about Houston's Medical City flood gates mentioned on PBS last night. Can't seem to find much on Google.
Stanley Scientist, tell us how these work!
Guess it's just a high water resistant wall with gates, like in a lock. I did read they have tanks that collect the water. when they start to fill, a pump shoots the water over the wall, like a bilge pump. They said the wall kept the water out and lots of patients, too. Sounds like SOMEONE was prepared, though.
DeleteHere is a good article about four things area leaders need to do to prevent future flooding. Briefly summarized, they are, preserve and restore as much prairie land as possible (to prevent runoff and absorb water), restrict development in flood plains and buy up flood prone housing, plan ahead for climate change, and educate the public. About educating the public, it is disturbing to read in this article how the real estate industry fought efforts by city government to do some common sense things, such as disclosure of flood risk factors, and and putting visible flood gauges in low lying coastal areas. The industry succeeded in having these gauges removed. So, they abetted willful non-disclosure of known problems to potential buyers.
ReplyDeleteFrom the WaPo this morning: "In Crosby, Tex., on the northeast outskirts of Houston, two blasts rocked a chemical plant left without power by floodwaters. And the French operator of the plant warned that more explosions could occur as rising temperatures make the compounds inside volatile and dangerous." People were evacuated within a 1.5 mile radius, but gas from the exposition is being carried in the wind.
ReplyDeleteEPA? Oh, right, we don't need no stinking EPA.
Now I'm really pissed off.
Since my childhood home in Pennsylvania was next to a major river, my family had some experience with floods. The backyard from our house sloped down about 15 feet to what I think of as the normal flood plain of the river, then a longer backyard stopped at the river's bank and another 20 ft. drop.
ReplyDeleteIn my childhood the river flooded the plain about every five years. It actually never came over the bank. The flood plain had a several foot dip; water came over several blocks above us and slowly flowed down until the river bank became a small island.
There were some houses built on the flood plain; their basements regularly flooded. Usually their first floor's were safe.
Our garage was about half way down the 15 ft. slope; it got flooded twice in the 60 years my parents lived there; once with about two feet of water, and once with four feet of water. Both of those occasions also flooded the first floors of houses on the normal river flood plain. When the flood threaten the garage we simply moved everything up the driveway along side of our house.
The highest flood, which was described as a 200 year flood also flooded the basement of our house. When rivers flood, the sewage backs up. Dad had a pump that efficiently removed the water that backed up, except when the highest flood came they turned off the electricity, and we did not have a generator.
Flood water is very slimy, it destroys everything it touches, and is very difficult to clean up. Although we had flood insurance, it payed very little.
Newer homes were built on the river flood plain. However their first floor is a concrete block garage and basement, with first floor and deck above it, so there is little chance of the first floor ever flooding. I think people should be able to live on the river bank in homes like these at their own risk. I don't think new homes should be built on the normal flood plain. I think existing older homes should be turned into new homes like described above, or be demolished and turned into public parks for river access.
Over time there have been less and less "normal" floods. Most of the dams and locks have been replaced with variable level dams which allows much greater control of river, i.e. emptying several feet of water down stream when water begins to fall upstream.
Most people in our town that live above the normal flood plain need to have pumps and generators to remove backed up water from their basements, and consider locating washers, dryers, on the first floor.
I think we need to have "river park" authorities, funded by taxes on people who live close to the river, who can buy up land for parks and recreation and reduce the number of people living in these areas. We should give tax deductions to people who buy up houses and land and donate them to these park authorities.
I think the valley I grew up in is potentially one of the most scenic and beautiful in the country but it has a lot of old industrial era buildings and houses that need to be replaced by green space.
About the houses with a concrete block garage and basement, with a deck and first floor above it, we saw a lot of those type of houses in Honolulu. It wasn't really a basement since it wasn't underground. These houses occupied a smaller footprint too, which is an advantage where land prices were sky high.
ReplyDelete