My Prius has started to internally eat oil at a rate of one quart per 1500 miles. It's still economical for me to feed it oil. I have 136,000 miles on it and would love to keep it 3 more years for a full 10 years but we'll see. However, it's enough for me to start looking at what is available now and perhaps 3 years from now. I looked at the Tesla Model 3, an electric car with a 240 mile range and, more interesting than the type of motor, the ability to SELF DRIVE. Even at 68 my driving skills are at an all time high, risk avoidance tweaked to the max and my reaction times seem to be still adequate. But I hate driving, more exactly, the idiots I encounter on the road. So I am ready to get taken out of the loop and let an AI do the work. What will this mean for me?
My driving skills will plummet.
I can let my friend MaryAnn, a pathological level backseat driver who could fill a whole Dr. Phil Show, shout at the car while I listen to Classical Music.
I can paint over or frost the car windows so I can ride naked, if I want.
I can drink more.
I can sleep more.
I can surf the net more or even read print books.
I can ride until I'm a hundred without a silver alert.
Recently, My mother was all panicked that her license would be taken away. The neurologist gave her a clean bill of health but not before I got a "Why did you do this to me? and a lot of crying. So eff me. But, in the future
How will insurance companies react? Tesla is claiming a 90% reduction in accident rate.
Why own a car that spends 95% of the time dormant? Self-driving ubers can pick you up and drop you off. I looked up the cost of uber and it's still pricey. But with volume and multi-passenger shared rides, it could be cheaper than owning a car on a per mile basis with all the annoyance that goes with it.
With cars mostly in motion, who needs parking lots and parking spaces?
The municipalities will lose an important source of revenue.
Goodbye, car insurance companies.
Some right wing dweeb who thinks he's smarter than he is posted on realclimate.org that there isn't enough lithium to supply a total changeover from internal combustion to electric cars. Though not necessarily true, a smart guy then replied to Fred Flintstone that that will not be true if you only need 10% of the cars.
For me, the writing is on the wall. Digital Cameras killed Kodak. There was nothing Kodak could do, Film made Kodak indispensable and nearly unique. But anybody can build a digital camera. Eventually, self-driving may collapse the car industry to 10% of its present size. Of course, in this country that couldn't convert to metric or adopt a dollar coin or buy round monolithic dome houses in Kansas that can withstand F5 tornadoes, maybe not. We are good at thinking inside the very, very small red, white and blue box.
I wish I could afford a self-driving car! They they can make such a difference to people who can't drive anymore because of vision. Unfortunately they are very expensive.
ReplyDeleteLast night I watched a story on PBS Newshour about how Norway is in the vanguard of making and driving electric cars. They are hoping to get Trump to invest in them but they don't realize his dream car is one run on coal ;)
Hi Crystal,
ReplyDeleteHopefully, you may not have to buy one in a few years. As uber and lyft become self-driver, you'll be able to hail them by smart or dumb phone. and I think they can become very cheap. For people who need assistance, a future less-republican government could make some amount of miles per week available free. If I do get a self-driver, I might even be able to make it available to uber or to pick up people in need and become a charitable deduction. the possibities are endless.
Yes, Crystal, Trump even looks like Fred Flintstone.
ReplyDeleteMy maternal grandfather who was a foreman in the steel mill had to retire in his fifties because of a stroke, but he was able to drive VERY SLOWLY for the next twenty years. He often had fender benders in the parking lot but not much damage because he was going at 5 mph. He often held up traffic on the curvy two lane roads of the valley by driving at 25 mph.
ReplyDeleteI have a wonderful location. Almost everything is within several blocks, most of it can be reached by a series of right turns. I figure I can drive 25 mph until I no longer care to go anywhere.
My Honda CRV is ten years old, this is when I usually get a new car. But looking at the new CRV, I noticed that they have enlarged the rear seat at the expense of the cargo area. Definitely not for this landscaper and gardener. I think I will keep my CRV until I can't garden anymore.
Aren't we overlooking the fact that Americans just like driving and manipulating the car controls? Self-driving cars won't allow 20-somethings to "drift" in traffic or for some guy to illustrate how women really can't parallel park.
ReplyDeleteIt's hard for me to imagine that self-driving vehicles would really take over transportation. But maybe I just don't have enough imagination.
I think I would like Mary Ann in small doses outside of a car.
"Why did you do this to me?" and a lot of crying. Hoo boy, you and I have been living parallel lives this week. Hang in there, Stanley.
Thanks, Jean. Knew I'd get one of those sooner or later. Hang in there, yourself.
ReplyDeleteI do miss driving. It's actually hard to take away someone's driver's license, at least in CA, and I kept mine until I moved to Portland at age 35, where they had stricter rules. Once in Portland I got a job that was 10 mins away by car but required 2 buses and an hour to get there, graveyard shift.
ReplyDeletePS - love my digital camera. Don't have to buy film or get it developed. Has auto-focus so I can take pics without being able to see well. I had a photography class in college and learned how to develop my own film, but really, unless you're Ansel Adams digital is pretty good.
A year or so ago I happened on the Tesla dealership in Manhattan, which is in the far west 20s with all of Chelsea art galleries. The car was a thing of great beauty. I forgot to get a New York driver's license when I moved here (living in Manhattan, the thought just never occurred to me) so I couldn't test drive it. I am not sure I would have been permitted to anyway, since there was just the one. But they were very nice and urged me to sit in the driver's seat. It was one of the few experiences that "It was awesome" actually applied to. If I had an unlimited amount of money, I think I would buy a Tesla just to sit in.
ReplyDeleteAfter not driving for only a few years, I began to think of riding in cars as a rather strange and dangerous thing to do.
David, I would buy a 1957 Chevy Bel Air just to sit in it.
DeleteI love trains. Used to take the Amtrak to Chicago out to LaGrange Park where the Illinois office for our company was. I'd see people getting in the commuter with a can of beer and the newspaper and decompress on the way home.
Most of the best memories I have of the UK happened on Brit Rail. Long drive from Edinburgh to London with a lady and her two kids. She was reading one of the Bastable children novels to them. They fell asleep and we chatted quietly and drank the dreadful train tea.
My first trip to Germany, I rented a car. Had to be a stick shift because cheaper and I know how. Subsequently, nothing but public transportation. A pleasure in so many ways, getting to rub elbows with the folks.
ReplyDeleteAs for the Tesla, a guy gave me a ride in his Model S. Stopped on an abandoned straightaway, straightened out the wheels, pressed the "insane mode" button and then stomped the pedal. Zero to 60 in a little over 3 seconds. Silently, like warp drive. Yeeehah! Could fall in love with driving again.
I don't see the self-driving cars totally taking over transportation, but I certainly see a significant niche for them. I like to drive, except for experiences like I-680 in Omaha. What I hate is being a passenger. Specifically being a passenger of someone near and dear to me, whom I live with. I will just say "wrecks, plural", and "high priced insurance". I am a Mary Anne. I have trained myself not to say anything, but I can't stop myself from doing " air brakes", and white knuckles. And I do the driving if possible. One can go to counseling and learn how to deal with irrational fears. But I've yet to learn how to deal with well-founded ones. Yeah, self-driving cars, bring it on!
ReplyDeleteI do wonder about the economic impact of self driving cars and trucks. The loss of manufacturing jobs with cars, and truck driving jobs with trucks. In some small communities truck driving is a major employer. It has always been a job in which someone without a college education could conceivably make a living. Of course self driving would avoid tragedies such as the one last year in which a moment's inattention or sleepiness caused a truck driver to rear end a van on I-80, killing a family of five.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSelf-driving cars will probably eventually become the norm because they will save money and lives. We can bitch and moan about every new innovation but life is nothing but change, and hopefully for the better. Trump is trying to turn back the clock to steampunk world but it won't work.
ReplyDeleteThere was an announcement -- haven't heard any more since -- that Jeb Bush and some guy from Google and some guy from Ford were going to have on call self-driving cars that can get to us house in less than 40 minutes and take us wherever we tell it within a time frame that might keep us out of assisted living. We live in one of their roll-out counties. O.F. homes around here are full of people who can do everything for themselves except drive.
ReplyDeleteOf course I'd have to have a cell phone to call a Bushmobile, and I don't have one. But I;'m sure one of the kids would set us up with one because it would be a lot less wrenching than taking away the car keys, which many people in my age group consider to be tantamount to signing the death certificate.
It is hard, out here in western suburbia, to not drive because the RT isn't great and everything is far away. To take a taxi to the doc is about $20 each way. To the vet is $12 one way. The grocery store/pharmacy is too far away to walk to and they don't deliver. And in an emergency, you can wait up to half an hour for a taxi. Miss my old Ford Galaxie 500 - it was the last car I owned and it was like driving a tank ;)
ReplyDeleteLoss of millions of jobs is definitely the downside and I'm not really happy about it. Especially how fast it seems to be happening. Technology is a two edged sword. I'm not as happy clappy about rapid technological change as I was in my youth.
ReplyDeleteActually, the number of cars may not be reduced all that much. The same people who have cars now are still going to want to have them. But a lot of them will benefit from having the self-driving option. Hate to admit it, but I like having a car in my driveway and in the parking lot at work, ready to go when I want it. The self -drivers are only going to use marginally less gas. And the cars which are part of fleets, like taxis, and act as de facto public transit are still going to wear out, especially with the increased use and wear and tear.
DeleteElectric engines will not wear out like internal combustion engines that work at high temperature, lots of friction and motion. Fewer parts. Think Waring blender lasting for decades. Germany is already predicting massive loss of car mechanics jobs. As for availability, it depends on volume. If enough people want the services, enough self drivers on the road, there will be little or no delay in pickup. Also, with more self drivers, coordination and cooperation among cars will reduce or eliminate traffic delays. But, yes, we shall see.
DeleteProgress is inevitable, whether jobs are lost or not. I'm not saying it *should* happen, but just that it *will* happen. It's like with coal mining - yes, people are losing their jobs, but there's no real way to go back to coal. Instead of trying to do that, there should be programs to help those put out of jobs to have new prospects.
ReplyDeleteI wonder to what extent the car companies themselves are hinky about self-driving cars. You see lawsuits and recalls when design flaws lead to injury and death. Why wouldn't automakers be the drivers de facto in all accidents? That's a lot of risk to take on.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't the owners still have to carry insurance, whether it were private parties or rapid transit companies? Unless an accident was caused directly by a faulty part or design flaw, I could see kind of a no-fault rule being applied.
DeleteIf no one is driving but the cars, isn't it always going to be a fault of the cars? Or a lawsuit to prove the car "innocent" and something else at fault?
DeleteYes, I suppose there could be no fault.
How could it be proved that a person who overrode the auto drive feature was at fault? Would the car's computer record that? Like a black box on a plane?
Jean, All good questions and I guess it'll be hammered out in the courts. Thing is, a totally automated system would probably reduce accidents by 99%, at the least. Heck, if humans just stuck to the speed limit, it would probably do something close. Everybody doing 65 in a 65 zone, nobody passes anybody, little or no interaction. But, noooooo! Always the hot shots.
DeleteAmericans can't stand to have people passing them. Driving 65 in a 65 mph zone? I think 50 percent of the American population would take over the manual controls and go 80.
DeleteI always just love merges. One out of three lanes get blocked for construction. Instead of logically taking one's turn and interweaving into a single lane, the bottomfeeders have to rush to the front and jam up the whole thing.
DeleteThat must be even more fun with MaryAnn offering directions!
DeleteMichigan roads are always terrible. In winter it's snow and ice and people who thin they are invincible with 4WD. And summer you are dodging road crews and road rage victims who can't get their RVs to the lake fast enough.
Yrue, Jean. Ir always seems to be the SUVs spun off the road in snow squalls. Then there're the ones stranded in flash floods.
DeleteThere was an interesting article on this stuff a while ago. It was about the programming the car would have, how it would make choices ... The Robot Car of Tomorrow May Just Be Programmed to Hit You
ReplyDelete