Bernie Sanders on Political and Economic Reality

 Dear Jack,

Let me thank you all for the financial and political support that you have given me over the last many months. With your help, we’ve been able to hold well-attended rallies and town meetings for Kamala and Democratic candidates all across the country - New Hampshire, Maine, Illinois, Iowa, Texas, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. We have also, of course, held numerous events in my own state of Vermont where I’m running for reelection to the Senate.

Will we be successful in defeating Trump – the most dangerous candidate in modern American history? Well, we’ll find out soon enough. But, this I do know. No matter what the outcome of this election the Democratic Party needs fundamental and immediate reform. It can no longer continue to ignore the major economic and political crises facing the working families of our country.

YES. We must address the reality that the United States is rapidly moving to an oligarchic form of society. Never before in our history have so few had so much wealth and power.

YES. We must address the reality that we have an economy in which the wealthiest people have never had it so good, while 60 percent of our people live paycheck to paycheck. Millions work for starvation wages while the minimum wage remains at $7.25 an hour.

YES. We must address the reality that our political system is totally corrupt. It’s not just Trump who is undermining our democracy. As a result of the disgraceful Citizens United Supreme Court decision a handful of the very richest people in America are spending billions to buy the presidential and state elections.

YES. We must address the reality that our health care system is totally broken and that we remain the only wealthy nation on earth not to guarantee health care to all as a human right. Despite spending twice as much per capita on health care as any other country, 85 million are uninsured or under-insured and our life expectancy is significantly lower than most other countries.

YES. We must address the reality that not only is climate change real, it is an existential threat to our country and the world. This is a crisis that cannot be solved unilaterally. If we do not achieve an unprecedented level of international cooperation the planet we will be leaving our children and future generations will be increasingly unhealthy and uninhabitable.

YES. We must address the reality that while we now spend a trillion dollars a year on the military, our foreign policy for decades has been counterproductive to peace, democracy and economic development. No. We cannot continue to fund the right-wing extremist Netanyahu government which is starving children in Gaza.

In the remaining few hours of this campaign let us do everything we can to bring out the vote and elect Kamala Harris as our next president. Please. Get your friends, family and co-workers to the polls. In this extremely close election every vote really does count.

And then, on the day after Kamala wins, let us accelerate our efforts to bring working families together to create an economy and government that works for all, not just the few. There’s a lot of work to be done. Let’s do it.

Thanks for your continuing support and all that you do.

In solidarity,

Voting Results Processing Guide

 Adapted from NYT

Georgia counts fast (but watch the vote margin). 7PM 

Most Georgia voters tend to vote early in person, and vote reporting is usually relatively fast. The share of ballots cast by mail, which can often take longer to count, is expected to be small. The mail voting rate returned to the state’s usual level of around 6 percent in 2022 after growing to about 25 percent in 2020. 

The state could still be counting corrected mail ballots, overseas ballots and provisional ballots in the days after the election.

 North Carolina counts fast (with new rules). 7:30Pm

 Early, in-person voting is very popular, and votes are typically counted very quickly, with 98 to 99 percent of votes reported by midnight Eastern time in the last two major elections. New rules mean that early voting results will no longer be reported immediately at poll close time, but mail ballots are now due on Election Day (in 2020, ballots postmarked by Election Day had nine days to arrive).

 Pennsylvania is likely to take longer than election night. 8PM

 It takes longer to count votes in Pennsylvania, primarily because election workers are not allowed to start processing mail ballots until Election Day. Still, vote counting sped up significantly from 2020 to 2022, in part because of new, faster equipment and a requirement that most counties continue counting mail ballots without stopping after polls close, including through the night.

 Democrats have been much more likely to vote by mail. In the 2020 presidential race, after an initial batch of heavily Democratic votes, the reported tally favored Mr. Trump until more mail ballots were counted, and Mr. Biden’s margins increased.

 Michigan could be faster than in the past.  8-9 PM

 In the past two general elections, about half of the votes in Michigan were counted by midnight Eastern time, and the bulk of remaining votes were counted by noon the next day. But the state has passed major reforms that could speed things up: It newly implemented nine days of early in-person voting, and it now allows counties to begin processing mail ballots before Election Day (though not all places plan to take advantage of the new rule).

 Mail ballots — which have been more likely to be cast by Democrats — came in slowly over time in 2020. This contributed to a "red mirage" showing Mr. Trump ahead in the reported tally before all mail ballots had been counted. That pattern did not hold in the 2022 election for governor, and it is unclear how new pre-processing rules will affect the order of votes reported.

 Wisconsin is likely to finish most counting Wednesday. 9 PM

 Poll workers cannot begin processing ballots until Election Day, but they are required to count through the night until they are finished. In some jurisdictions, including Milwaukee, absentee ballots are counted at a central facility and are reported in large batches. A state official told CNN that full, unofficial results are not likely until the morning after the election.

 In 2020, Mr. Trump was ahead in the reported vote until the final results came in, including thousands of ballots from heavily Democratic Milwaukee. This “red mirage” in the results contributed to conspiracy theories about Mr. Biden’s victory. That pattern did not repeat in 2022.

 Arizona could take days.

 First results typically come in around 10 p.m. Eastern time, an hour after polls close. Most voters cast ballots by mail, and counting typically takes awhile. While poll workers are allowed to process those ballots that arrive before Election Day upon receipt, they must wait until after polls close to process the ones that arrive on Election Day.

 Two things could contribute to longer waits this year. Officials are now required to count and report the number of ballots dropped off on Election Day before beginning to process them. And in the state’s largest county, Maricopa, there are so many contests that the ballot is two pages, which means more paper to tabulate. Officials there said full results could take 10 to 13 days.

 Nevada could take days.

 In recent elections, about half of Nevada voters have cast ballots by mail, and counting usually takes awhile. Counting could be faster than in the past because of new technology and a rule that allows officials to tabulate ballots sooner. But postmarked ballots are allowed to arrive up to four days after the election, on Nov. 9, and voters have until Nov. 12 to address mistakes with their ballots.

 

"Let nothing disturb you...not even the election"

There is a very good article on the America site by Brother Joe Hoover, SJ:

Listen to the saints and mystics: Let nothing disturb you—not even the election. | America Magazine

All of us are feeling stressed and full of angst about how things are going to turn out tomorrow.  We need to take a breath of air.  

From the article:

Predictions

I predict Kamala Harris will win the presidential election.*  

My amateur reasoning here is based on a combination of the gender gap and the education gap.  I think women are more motivated to vote for Harris (and against Trump) than men are motivated to vote for Trump.   And I think there will be sufficient college-educated suburban men in the "blue-wall states" of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania who will vote for Harris to put her over the top in at least one of those states.

I also predict Republicans will end up with a 51-49 majority in the Senate.  My entirely conventional expectation is that Republicans will pick up two seats, in West Virginia and Montana.  I also predict John Thune will become the new Senate Majority leader.

And just to keep things interesting: I'll also predict that Democrats will flip the House of Representatives.  I don't have any particular reason for thinking this.

What outcomes do you expect?

*I was going to add "...on Tuesday" to that sentence, but in fact with early voting the election already is underway, and it's quite possible that when we wake up Wednesday morning, we won't know yet for certain who won.

STATISTA On Halloween

STATISTA: Halloween Spending Expected to Fall Shorting  

by Florian Zandt,

 Oct 30, 2024

After hitting a record high in 2023, U.S. consumer spending for Halloween items like candy, decorations and costumes is expected to drop by $600 million to $11.6 billion, according to data from the industry group National Retail Federation (NRF). Despite the decrease, this still marks the second-highest expected spending in the past decade. While the coronavirus pandemic was responsible for the most recent drop before the 2024 Halloween season, growth had been stagnant before the novel virus' impact on public and social life around the world.

For example, after consumer spending increased by $2.2 billion between 2015 and 2017, 2018 and 2019 saw drops of $100 million and $200 million, respectively, compared to the previous year. So while the implementation of social distancing rules was certainly one cause for the drop of $800 million or ten percent in comparison with 2019, the industry had been bracing for decline for some time before the pandemic.

Zooming in on what U.S. residents are spending their money on shows most will go towards costumes and decorations. Additional NRF data indicates that overall consumers in the United States will allocate $3.8 billion each in both categories, with candy coming in second at $3.5 billion. The greeting card industry, however, will hardly profit from Halloween, with approximately $500 million spent on this specific type of Halloween item.

You will find more infographics at Statista

STATISTA: Trick of Treating Around the World

by Katharina Buchholz,

 Oct 28, 2024

Trick-or-treating has been associated with Halloween celebrations in the U.S. and Canada since the early 1900s, but traditions of children going door to door in a quest for treats exist in many parts of the world, with one European custom being widely recognized as the precursor of the North American tradition.

As far back as the Middle Ages, people in the British Isles dressed up for holidays and went from door to door performing scenes in order to receive a thank-you in the form of food and drink. The tradition is preserved today in Scotland and Ireland under the name guising and features dressed-up children rather than theater displays. The origin of Halloween, celebrated on October 31, also goes back to Celtic traditions, more specifically the Samhain festival, which marked the beginning of winter and a time when fairies and spirits needed to be appeased. Like many Christian holidays, All Saints' Day (November 1) and its eve, All Hallows' Day, coincide with the pagan festival and trick-or-treating is done in Portugal on the first day of November. All Saints' Day also has a big significance in Mexico (celebrated as Day of the Dead there) but U.S. Halloween traditions have also been adopted, most heavily in the Northern and Central parts of the country, where the custom is named calaverita (litte skull) after the sugar skulls which are gifted for the festival.

But scary dress and trick-or-treating antics are not tied to a single date: Scandinavian children engage in them around Easter, while those in Northern Germany and Southern Denmark pick New Year's Eve. In Southern Germany, Austria Switzerland, the Netherlands and Flanders in Belgium, treats are given out not for threats, but for songs, which children perform on November 11 (St. Martin's Day). Caroling for sweets is also performed during Ramadan in Central Asia. This is where trick-or-treating blends into Christmas caroling, which is sometimes also rewarded with food offerings, for example in Eastern Europe. The practice is associated most closely with England and the United States, but involves adults as well as children and more commonly the collection of money, for example for charity.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Should the US Catholic Church speak out against Donald Trump?

In a recent post that touched on the quadrennial document "Forming Consciences for Faithful Citizenship" from the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops, it was noted that the Faithful Citizenship document does not address the issue of the Donald Trump-led GOP's threats to democracy and the nation's Constitutional order.  At a time when many concerned candidates, public figures and citizens are speaking out against the attempts to overthrow the 2020 election and the risk that further attempts could be made in the wake of this year's presidential election, the US bishops' main teaching document is silent.

But other national bishops' conferences have not been so reticent about threats to democracy in their own countries.  In a New York Times article, Harvard political science professors Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt give examples of bishops speaking out against anti-democratic movements.  The article is entitled (perhaps provocatively), "There Are Four Anti-Trump Pathways We Failed to Take.  There Is a Fifth."  

As the authors explain,  

We have been studying democratic crisis and authoritarianism for 30 years. Between the two of us, we have written five books on those subjects. We can think of few major national candidates for office [besides Donald Trump] in any democracy since World War II who have been this openly authoritarian...

We spent the last year researching how democracies can protect themselves from authoritarian threats from within. We have found five strategies that pro-democratic forces around the world have employed. None offer foolproof protection (no democracy could enjoy foolproof protection and remain a democracy), and some of them come with important drawbacks. But our research suggests that in the face of imminent extremist threats, these strategies are the best available.

The authors then discuss the five strategies for protecting democracies from authoritarians.  For purposes of this post, I'll focus on the fifth strategy, but the other four are worth considering as well:

PEW: What are the keys to living a fulfilling life?

 Recently Statista made an infographic out of a portion of this recent PEW survey on the future of the family.  I have posted it, and my analysis of the PEW data in tabular form on my LAKE COUNTY OHIO WEAL site:

PEW: What makes for a fulfilling life?

Here is my table of the basic findings which I think is much better than the Statista graphic because it summarizes the Somewhat and Not too/Not at all categories.

Percent saying each of the following is important in order to live a fulfilling life
	Extremely, Very	Somewhat	Not too/Not at all
Having a Job or career  that they enjoy	71	25	4
Having close friends	61	29	10
Having children	26	33	42
Having a lot of money	24	49	27
Being married	23	33	44
Share of respondents who did not offer an answer is not shown

For myself I would agree that "having a job or career that I enjoy" and "having close friends" are both extremely important. I would include my parents as life-long close friends. 

Being neither married nor having children I would also agree that they are not too important.  However I think there is a missing category that I think is extremely important "growing up in a healthy nurturing family" 

"Having a lot of money" depends upon what that means. I think of myself as having "sufficient money" i.e. I own my own home and have a decent retirement. It has been easy to live within my salary, retirement plan, and savings.  I would rate "sufficient money" as being very important. However, if having a lot of money means dining out much of the time, taking vacations around the world, having a larger home than I need in a wealthier neighborhood, buying a new car every 3-5 years rather than every 10 years, I would say that is not at all important. 

The "Not too/Not at all" statistics on "having children" and "being married" tells me that the future of the family is bleak. Evidently there are a lot of married people out there with children who don't think either has contributed much to living a fulfilling life!!!