China had its Sputnik moment — his name was Donald Trump,

 China Has Taken a Great Leap Forward in High Tech Manufacturing

Thomas L. Friedman

NYT I just spent a week in Beijing and Shanghai, meeting with Chinese officials, economists and entrepreneurs, and let me get right to the point: While we were sleeping China took a great leap forward in high-tech manufacturing of everything.

“China had its Sputnik moment — his name was Donald Trump,” Jim McGregor, a business consultant who lived in China for 30 years, told me. “He woke them up to the fact that they needed an all-hands-on-deck effort to take their indigenous scientific, innovative and advanced manufacturing skills to a new level.”

Here’s what Noah Smith, who writes about manufacturing, posted the other day, using data from the United Nations Industrial Development Organization:

In 2000, “the United States and its allies in Asia, Europe and Latin America accounted for the overwhelming majority of global industrial production, with China at just 6 percent even after two decades of rapid growth.” By 2030, Smith wrote, the U.N. agency predicts “China will account for 45 percent of all global manufacturing, single-handedly matching or outmatching the U.S. and all of its allies.

“This is a level of manufacturing dominance by a single country seen only twice before in world history — by the U.K. at the start of the Industrial Revolution, and by the U.S. just after World War II.” Smith wrote, “It means that in an extended war of production, there is no guarantee that the entire world united could defeat China alone.”

Xiaomi’s SU7, which is manufactured in a formerly abandoned plant that used to make gasoline-fueled cars — was the talk of the Beijing car show last April. Meanwhile, BYD, the famed Chinese battery company, which already had a car-making subsidiary, doubled down on automobiles. I rode all over Shanghai in super-comfortable BYD electric cars operated by Didi, China’s Uber. BYD now offers a subcompact E.V., the Seagull, that starts at less than $10,000.

In an effort to export its large inventory of cars, China has begun construction of a fleet of 170 ships capable of carrying several thousand automobiles at a time across the ocean. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, the world’s shipyards were delivering only four such vessels a year. That is also not a typo.

Because China has essentially a national electric grid, it has installed charging stations all over the country, which is why more than half of new car sales in China are of E.V.s. Apple talked for 15 years about making an electric car. Has anyone driven an Apple car?

But don’t worry, folks, help is on the way. Trump has vowed to make America great again by doubling down on drill-baby-drill gas guzzlers and ending U.S. government subsidies for Americans who purchase electric cars.

So, what do you think is going to happen? The rest of the world will gradually transition to Chinese-made self-driving E.V.s, “and America will become the new Cuba — the place where you visit to see old gas-guzzling cars that you drive yourself,” as Keith Bradsher, the Times Beijing bureau chief and an auto industry specialist, mused to me.

If that happens, one day we’ll wake up and China will own the global electric vehicle market. And since fully autonomous driving technology only really works with E.V.s, that means China will own the future — the self-driving-cars market as well.

As an article in the state-run China Daily explained: “From steel plates and mobile phones to household motors and rocket ignition device parts, more business lines in China are using artificial intelligence to power their production and have introduced ‘dark factories’ with their 24-hour uninterrupted and unattended production capabilities. Dark factories, also called smart factories, are entirely run by programmed robots with no need for lighting.”

In the last seven years alone, the number of babies born in China fell from 18 million to nine million. The latest projection is that China’s current population of 1.4 billion will decline by 100 million by 2050 and possibly by 700 million by the end of the century. To preserve its own standard of living and be able to take care of all its old people, with a steadily shrinking working population, China will drive the robotization of everything for itself — and the rest of the world.

Nebraska bishops to the migrant community: You are not alone

I was pleased to see this letter from the three bishops of the Nebraska dioceses. It was published on December 12, the feast of Our Lady of Guadeloupe. It appeared in the Catholic Voice, which is the publication of the Omaha Archdiocese (it is online, we no longer have a print edition)

The letter is apparently in response to some of the threats made by the incoming Trump administration.

As of 2023, there were approximately 152K immigrants in Nebraska, or 7.7% of the population. Immigrants are defined as anyone who was foreign born, whether or not they are citizens.

Are we in an age of war?

I'll keep this as brief as I can.  It's not based on any books or articles I've recently read, although I don't think there is anything original about this thought.

To put this as baldly as possible: Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine starting in 2022 was, in retrospect, the first of a series of moves by leaders whom I consider entrepreneurs of war: national or movement leaders who take great risks by making war, in pursuit of potential great payoffs.

Israel, led by Netanyahu and his War Cabinet, are now acting as entrepreneurs of war.  Israel has defied (and continues to defy) 'world opinion' by defeating Hamas (and killing many thousand Gazan "human shields" in the process); decapitating and degrading Hezbollah; destroying Iran's air defenses; and now securing the Golan Heights buffer zone in Syria and destroying Syrian chemical weapons facilities.  In essence, over the past year, Israel has destroyed Iran's attempt to encircle it with proxy warriors.

And now, in Syria, we see that the rebel leader (if one can use that Star Wars-esque term), Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, has defeated Bashar al-Assad's Syrian government forces, captured Aleppo, Homs and Damascus, driven Assad into exile, humiliated Russia and dealt Iran a major strategic setback.  

It's worth noting that not all of these are "bad guys" (as Americans tend to think of these things), and not all of their initiatives are completely successful.  Putin's invasion, even if it succeeds in some fashion (it seems fairly clear that, ultimately, he will be able to annex some eastern sections of Ukraine with heavy Russian populations), may well be a pyrrhic victory; the casualty count was recently reported to be greater than 600,000 Russian soldiers.  And so far, his perceived enemy, NATO, has risen to the occasion with unity and resolve.  And of course, some 2 1/2 years in, Ukraine still stands and is still in the fight.  Russia may well emerge from the Ukrainian war weaker than when it started.

Netanyahu, probably still counted a "good guy" by most Americans, has succeeded spectacularly (so far).  Israel is in a considerably stronger position than it was on October 7th 2023 when Hamas launched what must now be judged its jaw-droppingly foolish cross-border attack.  Netanyahu and Israel may, at the moment, be poster children for the positive payoff of war entrepreneurialism.  War has been very good for Israel, at least up until now.  Many Israelis surely are wondering why Israel waited as long as it did to attack its enemies.  And Netanyahu seems more secure politically than he has been in years.

Jolani may be the most striking war entrepreneur of all.  His lightning campaign across sections of Syria has electrified the world and transformed the geopolitical balance in the Middle East.  He has propelled himself onto the world stage.  Other world leaders and nations are watching him in equal parts curiosity, hope and apprehension to understand who he is and how he would govern.  And he surely is being hailed as a hero by the many people Assad oppressed.           

If we look at war-making through the lens of succeeding or failing (a lens the term "war entrepreneur" intensifies), then a case might be made to geopolitical leaders that war works.  Even Putin, if he ends up with several Ukrainian provinces in his pocket, can claim he won.  

I fear that is the lesson the world is going to take away from the last several years: as long as you win, war is a net positive.  Perhaps something to ponder and pray about during this season of peace.

Why Bernie is Voting Against the Military Budget

Bernie Sanders
Sat 8 Dec 2024

Today in America, 60% of our people live paycheck to paycheck, 85 million people are uninsured or underinsured and 21.5 million households are paying more than 50% of their income on housing. We have one of the highest rates of childhood poverty of almost any developed country on Earth, and 25% of older adults are trying to survive on $15,000 a year or less. In other words, the United States has fallen far behind other major countries in protecting the most vulnerable, and our government has failed millions of working families.

But while so many Americans are struggling to get by, the United States is spending record-breaking amounts of money on the military. In the coming days, with relatively little debate, Congress will overwhelmingly pass the National Defense Authorization Act, approving close to $900bn for the Department of Defense (DoD). When spending on nuclear weapons and “emergency” defense spending is included, the total will approach $1tn. We now spend more than the next nine countries combined.

I don’t often agree with Elon Musk, but he is right when he says the Pentagon “has little idea how its annual budget of more than $800bn is spent.” The Department of Defense is the only government agency that has been unable to pass an independent audit. It recently failed its seventh attempt in a row and could not fully account for huge portions of its $4.126tn in assets.

The advent of Jesus in our lives

This is my homily for today, the 2nd Sunday of Advent, Cycle C.  Today's readings are here.

Revisions to CLC Models

 Thanks for your discussion of my draft

Models for Reinventing Commonweal Local Communities

Below the break are my revisions of three sections.  

I added "spiritual " to the Grassroots Movement Model to emphasize the religious aspect of CLCs They have the potential to be far more than academic discussions groups or social meetings with good company. To help define CLCs as a religious movement I quote verbatim from the Commonweal website. I then viewed CLCs in light of Francis Joy of the Gospel, again quoting verbatim from that document. 

The paragraph from Francis provided me with a great lead into the Network of Communities model. We are all members of many communities and each of them deserver their form of "missionary impulse capable of transforming everything." Just as Francis says there is not one way of doing parish, there is not one way of doing CLCs

Finally in the Virtual Commonweal Local Communities, I tried better to communicate that I want a virtual dimension to CLCs which would be similar to what we have here at NewGathering. In some ways this model should be located right after Network of Communities Model. However, that step would likely be too great for most of the Cleveland CLC members as well as the Commonweal Staff. I use the Circle of Friends model to justify shutting down their blog. On their website they emphasize the decidedly local nature of each CLC. This essay strongly supports that. Hopefully they will understand virtual as a dimension of every community rather than an alternative to local communities. So I want everyone to think of various physical models before thinking about their virtual dimension. Like Francis I am interested in a "missionary impulse capable of transforming everything, but I also recognize the value of small steps. 

What do you think of CLCs as a means of evangelizing the church and the world in the spirit of Pope Francis? That is where I am headed after I see how more people handle this essay.

Notre Dame victorious

If you want to take a break from the murder of insurance CEOs, mayhem of Trump appointments, overthinking AI Jesus, and whatever else is wrecking your Advent, you might want to look at one of the specials about the renovation of Notre Dame over on YouTube. 

I watched the official re-opening live for awhile this afternoon, but some of the little documentaries available are really more interesting. Just a few observations:

Notre Dame is a celebration of human skill, patience, and brute-strength labor stretched to their limits--from the painters with teensy little brushes gradually adding paint to a corner of a mural to construction workers dozens of feet in the air pounding shims in place with sledge-hammer-sized mallets to hold up the vaulted ceilings. About 2,000 people from around the world worked to complete the restoration. 

Work never really stops on a cathedral. Notre Dame took two centuries to build in its original form. But every generation adds things to the cathedral--murals, stained glass, monuments, an organ, bells, chandeliers, tombs. As old things like the exterior statues and gargoyles wear away, new things replace them. A cathedral is a conversation about the divine from one generation to the next. 

The Middle Ages were not gloomy, stolid, and gray. A cathedral is meant to pull in light, not deflect it. Notre Dame's new restored white stone interior and stained glass show that. So do the murals depicting scenes from Scripture, from French history, from the lives of important saints. Everywhere there is vivid color, movement, and joy in our earthly life, even as the spire and towers point us toward life in Heaven.

The completion of Notre Dame brackets two pandemics. Three years after it was completed in 1345, the Black Death arrived in Parish. Much of the work on Notre Dame's current restoration took place in the wake of the COVID pandemic. You don't have to be a Catholic or a Christian to to see the survival of the cathedral as a testament to human endurance, and certainly a place to pray (or hope if prayer isn't your thing) that people will hang on for another millennium. 

Hoping you all can take a few minutes to enjoy the restoration. Happy Advent.