Under the heading of, we didn't have enough problems already, so add this one to the pile.
From this article on the Vox News site:
Thursday, April 30, 2020
Wednesday, April 29, 2020
Eeyore Eyes the Future, Gloomily
It has been almost a week since we discussed re-opening the churches. This morning I found out something about the planning our parish has been doing. My Eeyore reaction is that it will never work.
By way of prelude, our bishop has said nothing. He won’t decide what he wants to do until Archbishop Wenski of Miami announces what he is doing. Then our bishop will decide to do it, too. Also, our disappointment-a-day governor went to Washington yesterday to praise the president, sit next to him at a photo op and pick the presidential brain on a staged reopening. He did this on the day the state hit its highest death toll to date.
But the parish staff assumes:
1. The original emergency measures will remain: No cup, no holy water, no contact at kiss of peace, etc. (Suggested: Use holy water with alcohol added. Suggestion rejected.)
Everyone wearing masks. (How to receive the Host? TBA)
2. Collection baskets are being attached to poles to be wielded by ushers. (No more passing.)
3. Social distancing. Best possible seating arrangements have been worked out, using the church and Trinity Center. That means three priests — we have them — each saying five Masses can cover the usual Sunday attendance. (How do we let people know when there is no more room at the inn? TBA How do we get people to sit other than “where I always sit”? No possible answer. The ushers will have to “deal with it.” The ushers, needless to say, have not been consulted.)
5. Older people and ones with conditions will be encouraged to stay home awhile longer. But, of course, they are the ones most likely to feel a compulsion to come anyway.)
6. Instead of depending on plans, pray that the people themselves will produce a staggered reopening. (Two wives have stated they definitely aren’t coming if they can’t sit with their families, and another has proclaimed she’ll decide when it’s safe, and it isn’t going to be safe when the pastor says so because what does he know? The hope is that lot or people will follow that last wife’s lead.)
It is widely agreed that our parishioners will not a) read instructions, b) listen while instructions are explained or c) pay any attention to them. Ushers will have to “deal with it.”
By way of prelude, our bishop has said nothing. He won’t decide what he wants to do until Archbishop Wenski of Miami announces what he is doing. Then our bishop will decide to do it, too. Also, our disappointment-a-day governor went to Washington yesterday to praise the president, sit next to him at a photo op and pick the presidential brain on a staged reopening. He did this on the day the state hit its highest death toll to date.
But the parish staff assumes:
1. The original emergency measures will remain: No cup, no holy water, no contact at kiss of peace, etc. (Suggested: Use holy water with alcohol added. Suggestion rejected.)
Everyone wearing masks. (How to receive the Host? TBA)
2. Collection baskets are being attached to poles to be wielded by ushers. (No more passing.)
3. Social distancing. Best possible seating arrangements have been worked out, using the church and Trinity Center. That means three priests — we have them — each saying five Masses can cover the usual Sunday attendance. (How do we let people know when there is no more room at the inn? TBA How do we get people to sit other than “where I always sit”? No possible answer. The ushers will have to “deal with it.” The ushers, needless to say, have not been consulted.)
5. Older people and ones with conditions will be encouraged to stay home awhile longer. But, of course, they are the ones most likely to feel a compulsion to come anyway.)
6. Instead of depending on plans, pray that the people themselves will produce a staggered reopening. (Two wives have stated they definitely aren’t coming if they can’t sit with their families, and another has proclaimed she’ll decide when it’s safe, and it isn’t going to be safe when the pastor says so because what does he know? The hope is that lot or people will follow that last wife’s lead.)
It is widely agreed that our parishioners will not a) read instructions, b) listen while instructions are explained or c) pay any attention to them. Ushers will have to “deal with it.”
Tuesday, April 28, 2020
Telling the story, in the story
This is my homily from yesterday, the 3rd Sunday in Ordinary Time, Cycle C. The readings for the weekend (the Gospel passage is the Road to Emmaus story) are here. In addition, if anyone is interested: at the time I am posting this, the recording of this past Sunday's mass, including my giving this homily (and doing all the usual diaconal stuff) is available here on our parish website; I suspect it will be replaced by the following weekend's mass recording by sometime this coming Saturday. Here is the text of the homily:
Monday, April 27, 2020
Friday, April 24, 2020
My Governor! Yum! Give it to them! Again!
"Gov. Cuomo angrily challenged Republicans to force hard-hit states to
declare bankruptcy instead of giving them stimulus aid to cope with the
coronavirus crisis.
“Pass the law. I dare you,” he raged. “You want to send a signal to the
markets that this nation is in real trouble? .... I dare you to do
that.”
The governor tore into Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell
(R-Kentucky) for suggesting that the GOP wouldn’t fund “blue state
bailouts” for New York and other pandemic-stricken states.
He reminded McConnell that New York gives more money to the federal
government than it takes back -- while Kentucky is near the top of the
list of “taker” states.
“New York has bailed you out every year, every year,” Cuomo said,
showing flashes of his legendary temper. “Mitch McConnell is a taker,
not a giver. New Yorker is a state of givers.”...."
Andrew Cuomo's Press Conference: April 24. Maybe more than you want to know, but more informative than the guy who wants us to drink a glass of clorox.
Andrew Cuomo's Press Conference: April 24. Maybe more than you want to know, but more informative than the guy who wants us to drink a glass of clorox.
Thursday, April 23, 2020
Is this the future of mass?
Tom Reese has an interesting article at NCRonline about what social distancing far into the future might mean for mass.
https://www.ncronline.org/news/opinion/signs-times/how-social-distancing-may-change-way-we-do-church
https://www.ncronline.org/news/opinion/signs-times/how-social-distancing-may-change-way-we-do-church
Tuesday, April 21, 2020
This Device Might Help People Stay Off a Ventilator
Front Page Photo
Caption: "Helping Hand: In West Palm Beach, Fla., on Monday, cars assembled in the parking lot of the Palm Beach Outlets mall, which partnered with Feeding South Florida to provide a week's supply of groceries to the first 800 vehicles in line."
Front-page photo this morning's WSJ (4/21/2020) showing a parking lot full of cars.
I'm hoping Tom Blackburn will explain this phenom...I'm sure there are poor people even in West Palm Beach. Do they all have cars? Do they need a week's supply of groceries?
Is it worth the umpteen hours they likely waited on line? Where was the social distancing?
In NYC there are many free food distributions operations, including our parish and probably 90 percent of all churches in New York plus senior centers and currently public schools. There are certainly many poor people. Ads on subways and bus stops call our attention to "food insecurity," often quoting "mother of three," wondering what she'll give her children for dinner.
At the same time, there are stories and pictures (last night on the Newshour) showing farmers dumping milk, plowing under greens, and lamenting their dire economic situation.
At the same time, obesity is said to be among the underlying conditions from which people with the corona virus are dying.
What is going on here?
Front-page photo this morning's WSJ (4/21/2020) showing a parking lot full of cars.
I'm hoping Tom Blackburn will explain this phenom...I'm sure there are poor people even in West Palm Beach. Do they all have cars? Do they need a week's supply of groceries?
Is it worth the umpteen hours they likely waited on line? Where was the social distancing?
In NYC there are many free food distributions operations, including our parish and probably 90 percent of all churches in New York plus senior centers and currently public schools. There are certainly many poor people. Ads on subways and bus stops call our attention to "food insecurity," often quoting "mother of three," wondering what she'll give her children for dinner.
At the same time, there are stories and pictures (last night on the Newshour) showing farmers dumping milk, plowing under greens, and lamenting their dire economic situation.
At the same time, obesity is said to be among the underlying conditions from which people with the corona virus are dying.
What is going on here?
Sunday, April 19, 2020
Nothing Can Separate Us From the Love of God
Once in a while I come across an article that really speaks to me. This one by Xavier C. Montecel on the NCR site was such an article. The whole piece is worth reading, but I will highlight some parts of it:
Saturday, April 18, 2020
Coronavirus attitudes and expectations
Eric Zorn, a columnist at the Chicago Tribune, recently dove into an interesting subset of national opinion polls: our attitudes and perceptions of the Coronavirus situation. Perhaps not surprisingly, he found that sharp differences exist between Democrats and Republicans.
A Patchwork of Leaky Seals
Most of y’all know I deliberately don’t harp on what I see on my daily feed of the unconstitutional, illegal and downright vile efforts being made to Keep America Great for White Americans by sealing the southern border tighter than the secrecy around presidential tax returns. But today three items in the feed make up a theme.
The theme is that we may all be in this together, but we don’t include foreign thems.
So when deportee planes from the United States began arriving full of COCID-19 sufferers, and Guatemala complained, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) did what you would expect red-blooded Americans to do: It sent a team from the Center for Disease Control down to Guatemala to find out what they hell is wrong with their tests.
We give them a medical test before we send them back. But we are Americans. We don’t test ourselves for coronavirus very well. So Guatemala must be doing something wrong.
Actually, it is we who are doing something wrong. Truck drivers and students are let in, but not asylum seekers. COVID-19 can't tell an asylum seeker from a truck driver. And, really, neither can our border guardians.
The theme is that we may all be in this together, but we don’t include foreign thems.
So when deportee planes from the United States began arriving full of COCID-19 sufferers, and Guatemala complained, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) did what you would expect red-blooded Americans to do: It sent a team from the Center for Disease Control down to Guatemala to find out what they hell is wrong with their tests.
We give them a medical test before we send them back. But we are Americans. We don’t test ourselves for coronavirus very well. So Guatemala must be doing something wrong.
Actually, it is we who are doing something wrong. Truck drivers and students are let in, but not asylum seekers. COVID-19 can't tell an asylum seeker from a truck driver. And, really, neither can our border guardians.
My New Cases Dashboard
Yesterday Anne C. asked for an update of the statistic model that I use to evaluate where we are. This morning after taking the latest data from the NYT I put some color to the data to help you understand how I interpret what is going on.
The first data column is National New Actual data calculated from the NY Total Actual numbers in the third data column. The Gray area in the middle column indicates the two weeks of data which were used to fit the curve.
Beginning on Wednesday March 18th the number of new cases each day exceeded the number of new cases predicted by the first two weeks of data. In other words things where headed in a very bad direction because the effects of social distancing had not kicked in. These days are indicated in RED in the middle column
Beginning on Wednesday March 18th the effects of social distancing began to show up in the data as the number of new cases began to drop below the predicted levels. Indicted by ORANGE in the middle column.
Beginning on Tuesday March 31st we have entered a plateau in which the number of NEW cases has fluctuated between 25,000 and 35,000. This is indicate by YELLOW in the middle column. I have also Yellowed the Saturday March 28th and March 29th of the National Predicted Column to indicate where on the upward predicted spike we plateaued.
The PINK areas on the New Predicted and National Total Predicted curves indicate all the places we might have gone if we had not changed our behavior. It is really our behavior that matters right now.
What is frightening about the data is how very little time we had to act. A few days either way means all the difference in where we plateaued. Things could have been better or much, much worse. That also has implications for relaxing social distancing by reopening business.
Besides our social distancing HERD IMMUNITY, AND WARM WEATHER AND SUNSHINE may also reduce New Cases. I think we should maintain the present situation until see New cases down in the 10,000 to 20,000 level. Otherwise there could easily be a resurgence before we realize that we have made a huge mistake. We are all sitting just days away from the extreme situations that developed in Wuhan, Italy, and New York
The first data column is National New Actual data calculated from the NY Total Actual numbers in the third data column. The Gray area in the middle column indicates the two weeks of data which were used to fit the curve.
Beginning on Wednesday March 18th the number of new cases each day exceeded the number of new cases predicted by the first two weeks of data. In other words things where headed in a very bad direction because the effects of social distancing had not kicked in. These days are indicated in RED in the middle column
Beginning on Wednesday March 18th the effects of social distancing began to show up in the data as the number of new cases began to drop below the predicted levels. Indicted by ORANGE in the middle column.
Beginning on Tuesday March 31st we have entered a plateau in which the number of NEW cases has fluctuated between 25,000 and 35,000. This is indicate by YELLOW in the middle column. I have also Yellowed the Saturday March 28th and March 29th of the National Predicted Column to indicate where on the upward predicted spike we plateaued.
The PINK areas on the New Predicted and National Total Predicted curves indicate all the places we might have gone if we had not changed our behavior. It is really our behavior that matters right now.
What is frightening about the data is how very little time we had to act. A few days either way means all the difference in where we plateaued. Things could have been better or much, much worse. That also has implications for relaxing social distancing by reopening business.
Besides our social distancing HERD IMMUNITY, AND WARM WEATHER AND SUNSHINE may also reduce New Cases. I think we should maintain the present situation until see New cases down in the 10,000 to 20,000 level. Otherwise there could easily be a resurgence before we realize that we have made a huge mistake. We are all sitting just days away from the extreme situations that developed in Wuhan, Italy, and New York
|
National
|
National
|
National
|
National
|
|||
|
New
|
New
|
Total
|
Total
|
|||
|
Actual
|
Predicted
|
Actual
|
Predicted
|
|||
|
March
|
||||||
|
TUE
|
3
|
|||||
|
WED
|
4
|
350
|
||||
|
THR
|
5
|
50
|
50
|
|
400
|
|
|
FRI
|
6
|
80
|
66
|
|
466
|
|
|
SAT
|
7
|
90
|
86
|
|
552
|
|
|
SUN
|
8
|
110
|
114
|
|
666
|
|
|
MON
|
9
|
150
|
150
|
|
815
|
|
|
TUE
|
10
|
200
|
197
|
|
1012
|
|
|
WED
|
11
|
260
|
259
|
|
1269
|
1271
|
|
THR
|
12
|
400
|
340
|
|
1660
|
1611
|
|
FRI
|
13
|
440
|
447
|
|
2100
|
2058
|
|
SAT
|
14
|
659
|
588
|
|
2759
|
2646
|
|
SUN
|
15
|
843
|
773
|
|
3602
|
3419
|
|
MON
|
16
|
880
|
1017
|
|
4482
|
4435
|
|
TUE
|
17
|
1399
|
1337
|
|
5881
|
5772
|
|
WED
|
18
|
2436
|
1758
|
|
8317
|
7530
|
|
THR
|
19
|
4075
|
2312
|
|
12392
|
9842
|
|
FRI
|
20
|
5570
|
3040
|
|
17962
|
12882
|
|
SAT
|
21
|
6418
|
3997
|
|
24380
|
16879
|
|
SUN
|
22
|
8638
|
5257
|
|
33018
|
22136
|
|
MON
|
23
|
10481
|
6912
|
|
43499
|
29048
|
|
TUE
|
24
|
15353
|
9090
|
|
58852
|
38138
|
|
WED
|
25
|
9656
|
11953
|
|
68508
|
50091
|
|
THR
|
26
|
16873
|
15718
|
|
85381
|
65810
|
|
FRI
|
27
|
17255
|
20670
|
|
102636
|
86480
|
|
SAT
|
28
|
20981
|
27181
|
|
123617
|
113660
|
|
SUN
|
29
|
18378
|
35743
|
|
141995
|
149403
|
|
MON
|
30
|
21580
|
47002
|
|
163575
|
196405
|
|
TUE
|
31
|
24672
|
61807
|
|
188247
|
258212
|
|
APRIL
|
1
|
26214
|
81277
|
|
214461
|
339489
|
|
THR
|
2
|
29767
|
106879
|
|
244228
|
446367
|
|
FRI
|
3
|
32154
|
140545
|
|
276382
|
586913
|
|
SAT
|
4
|
35154
|
184817
|
|
311536
|
771730
|
|
SUN
|
5
|
25230
|
243035
|
|
336766
|
1014765
|
|
MON
|
6
|
29472
|
319591
|
|
366238
|
1334356
|
|
TUE
|
7
|
31516
|
420262
|
|
397754
|
1754617
|
|
WED
|
8
|
31508
|
552644
|
|
429262
|
2307261
|
|
THR
|
9
|
34357
|
726727
|
|
463619
|
3033989
|
|
FRI
|
10
|
33017
|
955646
|
|
496636
|
3989635
|
|
SAT
|
11
|
33390
|
1256675
|
|
530026
|
5246309
|
|
SUN
|
12
|
25345
|
1652527
|
|
555371
|
6898836
|
|
MON
|
13
|
25507
|
2173073
|
|
580878
|
9071910
|
|
TUE
|
14
|
25922
|
2857591
|
|
606800
|
11929501
|
|
WED
|
15
|
30117
|
3757733
|
|
636917
|
15687234
|
|
THR
|
16
|
31028
|
4941418
|
|
667945
|
20628652
|
|
FRI
|
17
|
31908
|
6497965
|
|
699853
|
27126617
|
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