Wednesday, June 7, 2017

More Qatar

Not the biggest question on the agenda, but suddenly Qatar has become a hot spot in the Middle East. At moments, the whole line-up of issues, friends and enemies, potential flash points look to me like the Austria-Hungary/Russia-Serbia mini-conflicts before WWI. Here is a piece by Juan Cole, who sounds a bit like that to, but ends his very informative analysis with this:
The crisis will probably be resolved without such drastic measures. Qatar has the advantage of being the world’s biggest supplier of Liquefied Natural Gas, making it fabulously wealthy and independent. But it suffers from having a tiny citizen population, smaller than that of Cleveland. In military contests, demography is often destiny.
So perhaps this will die down.  Where is Bill de Haas? now when we could use some perspective?

P.S. I am told by my chief pronunciation advisor, it is pr. "Cutter."

15 comments:

  1. I read the Cole piece, yikes! More moving parts and conflicting interests than you can count. The whole place is a mine-field which a career diplomat would have a hard time navigating. So we have our Twitterer-in-chief putting his two cents worth where angels fear to tread. What could possibly go wrong? The image which springs to mind is Alfred E. Newman, the old Mad Magazine avatar. "What, me worry?"
    Then there is the possibility of Russian interference: interference

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  2. Didn't intend for "interference" to appear twice!

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  3. How did you create the "interference" link in a comment? What is the formula?

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. You type xxx
      Use any word where xxx is. It works for comments, but in a post you have to use the link or permalink tools.
      I learned it courtesy of Crystal and David N.

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    3. Sorry, every time I try to type the format, it just fills in blue letters. Going to have to figure out how to quote the format without having it actually forming a link (obviously xxx is a fake link!)

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    4. Let's try it this way: Type <a href=". Then paste in your web address that you want to link after the quotation mark, no space. Leave the period out. Then at the end of the address, put another quotation mark, then >link</a>. Put any word where link is.

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  4. What Katherine said. Another example ...

    Say that < and > are here going to be represented by ( and ) .... if I did use < and > in the example, they wouldn't actually show up right. So ...

    To get this ... Google

    You would write this ... (a href = "https://www.google.com")Google(/a)

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  5. Hmmmm - the blog added extra spaces. The first part is like this, not so spread out ...
    (a href =

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    1. Comments are always auto justified left and right, hence spreading.

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  6. Strange. My own blog doesn't do that but it's using an old template so maybe that's why.

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  7. Terrorist attacks all over the earth by Sunni Wahhabi influenced Salafists, ISIS, Taliban, etc. and Trump decides that the real danger must be.......Iran.

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  8. Ms. Steinfels - got your e-mail....thank you. Some input:
    First, my key customer, ExxonMobil, has significant concerns over these events. They have pipelines, worksites, and natural gas plants that straddle the UAE and Qatar borders and need supplies and personnel via Saudi Arabia. This creates myriad risks, issues, travel breakdowns (visa problems), etc.
    Second, wonder if this is not just a tempest in a teapot and why did Saudi create this issue? It appears to be as poorly thought out and implemented as their failed Yemeni intervention - to what ends?
    Third, Turkey is now sending troops to Qatar - that will increase tensions
    Fourth, notice that Trump's words are not being repeated by cooler heads in the state and defense departments. They are looking for ways to walk this back
    Fifth, it does heighten the Shia (Iran) vs. Sunni (Saudi) divide to the point that this may replace ISIL as the next Middle East flashpoint.
    It is merely the next iteration of the longstanding failures of British/French decisions dating back to WWI. Eventually, the Gulf monarchies reinforced by theological extremism will have to grow past this stage of political development e.g. 70% of Iranians are under the age of 35 - these days of a religious oriented leadership are limited by demographics. The same can be said of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Syria - eventually demographics, the people, climate changes, etc. will force change.

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  9. Links to other editorial positions:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/trumps-stunning-response-to-the-middle-east-diplomatic-crisis/2017/06/06/2a531a16-4aec-11e7-9669-250d0b15f83b_story.html?utm_term=.fb5049283dca

    OR

    http://www.kion546.com/news/politics/zakaria-to-trump-think-health-care-is-hard-welcome-to-the-middle-east/536133379

    If you have not read or heard it, find Fareed Zakaria's Trump Doctrine - it resonates.

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    1. Mr. deHaas: Thanks for your reply.

      Knew you'd have some constructive thoughts about this mess. Hard to believe that the outcome of WW1 is still going on in this part of the world...But it is. The WashPost editorial also reminds us:

      "In backing the Saudis, the president offered unconditional support for a country that has fostered the spread of Islamist extremism across the world and that has supplied many of the foot soldiers for the Islamic State and al-Qaeda — not to mention most of the 9/11 hijackers. He mixed the United States into a Middle Eastern feud that it should be trying to defuse — which is what the professionals at the State Department and Pentagon were trying to do before their boss jumped in."

      Also reminds me that the Saud family took over after the British and French divvied up the ME, and Britain betrayed its allies King Hussein and his sons, who fought with them against the Ottoman army. The Husseins being the guardian of Mecca.

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